The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday offers a split slate: There’s a three-game early slate starting at 2:10 pm ET and a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are four pitchers today priced above $9,000 on FanDuel; Zack Greinke is the lone stud in the early slate.
I’ll touch quickly on Greinke and the early slate before I move to the more robust main one. Greinke has the highest K Prediction among the six pitchers at 7.5, but none of them is in a good spot. No starter has an opponent implied run total of 4.0 runs or less; Greinke’s opponent, Jose Quintana, has the best Vegas data of the day with an opponent implied run total of 4.1 runs and moneyline odds of -125. Outside of the Coors Field game, the other four pitchers have similar data. When that happens, the smart play is to focus almost solely on ownership in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
The two most popular options on the main slate will likely be Corey Kluber and Alex Wood, one of whom represents safety while the other brings upside. Kluber is the upside play, and he’s been utterly dominant over his last 10 games, posting a +18.80 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 90 percent Consistency Rating:
Since returning in early June, he’s been on an absolute tear in terms of strikeouts; he has 38 just over his last three games:
It’s likely no surprise that he leads the slate with a massive 9.3 K Prediction against a Yankees squad whose projected lineup has a splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 24.9 percent. But the Yankees are also fifth in the league in team wOBA, and their projected lineup tonight has a splits-adjusted .337 mark. Kluber still has good Vegas data — the Yankees are currently implied for just 3.6 runs and Kluber is a nice -153 favorite — but there’s certainly risk. All that said, it’s hard to fade pitchers with K Predictions as high as Kluber’s today (per the MLB Trends tool):
The Yankees can be dangerous and Kluber will have exorbitant ownership across both sites despite his high salaries, but this could be a spot simply to eat chalk and find leverage plays elsewhere in your lineup.
Pro Subscribers can review ownership trends across tournaments of various buy-in levels after lineup lock via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
The pitcher with the best Vegas data is Wood, who faces an Atlanta Braves squad currently implied for 3.4 runs — the lowest mark in the slate. Wood is the second-largest favorite on the day with -230 moneyline odds, and pitchers with those marks have historically done well:
The issue with Wood is that he doesn’t have a lot of strikeout upside: Although he has a nice 10.260 past-year SO/9 rate, the Braves have one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league, whiffing on just 19.7 percent of at-bats this year. As a result, Wood’s 6.4 K Prediction is merely average in this slate.
One thing I wouldn’t be concerned about is Wood’s recent form. Although he has struggled over his last two starts, allowing 17 hits and 11 runs and scoring just 35.0 combined fantasy points, his Statcast data suggests he’s fine. Over that time period, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 198 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 30 percent, and a hard hit rate of 30 percent. He still averaged 101 pitches per game in those disappointing starts, and he could certainly rebound tonight if he stays true to his current form. Along with Kluber, he’s projected for a slate-high 17-20 percent ownership rate, although (given his lack of strikeout upside) he might be a worthy fade in GPPs.
Values
Rick Porcello is one of the top pitchers in the Bales Model today behind Wood, and he costs just $8,100 on FanDuel, where he comes with a high 93 percent Bargain Rating. He’s been quite unimpressive lately, averaging a -0.89 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 40 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games, and his recent Statcast data isn’t great either. Over his last two, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 214 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 41 percent. So why does he rate so highly today? Well, it’s mostly due to his matchup against the White Sox, whose projected lineup easily has the lowest past-year team wOBA at .270. Porcello has an opponent implied run total of 3.5 runs, and he’s the largest favorite of the day with gargantuan -273 moneyline odds. Say what you want about Porcello’s skill: Pitchers — independent of any other filters — have been incredibly valuable with moneylines odds that high:
If you want to dip into the bargain bin on DraftKings, Atlanta lefty Sean Newcomb is just $5,200. He has a ton of risk: He’s facing a Dodgers lineup currently implied for a whopping 5.2 runs, and Newcomb is a huge +210 dog. Further, his recent Statcast data is putrid: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 231 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 45 percent. Those are all ominous marks, but Newcomb does have the second-highest K Prediction (7.7) of the day and just posted 20.7 DraftKings points on nine strikeouts against these very Dodgers a week ago. If he can again limit the Dodgers to little contact — he allowed just three hits in that game — he could surprise. At only $5,200, he gives a ton of roster flexibility to afford both Kluber and a high-implied stack.
Fastballs
Michael Wacha: This game currently has a 38 percent chance of precipitation, which should depress Wacha’s ownership. He has a nice 7.4 K Prediction today against the Brewers, who rank first in the league this year with a huge 25.6 percent strikeout rate.
Jose Quintana: He’s averaged a +5.47 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games. He has a tough matchup against a Diamondbacks squad with a top-10 wOBA this year, but he also has upside with a 7.5 K Prediction. He’s a nice pivot away from Greinke in the early slate.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated early-slate DraftKings stack (per the player ratings in the Bales Model) currently belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
That is likely no surprise, as they’re home at Coors Field and are implied for a whopping 6.5 runs. That said, early-slate players will have to select between rostering the high-salaried bats from the Rockies and Mets or the high-salaried pitchers like Greinke and Quintana. Either way, the Rockies will be at least moderately popular, and jumping down to the No. 7 spot with Trevor Story could differentiate lineups. He has smashed the baseball lately, averaging a batted ball distance of 227 feet, an exit velocity of 98 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 68 percent over the past 11 games.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. FantasyDraft allows six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a highly-rated group for today’s main slate:
The Angels aren’t the highest-rated stack, but they are intriguing, especially since their implied run total has already increased from 4.7 to 5.1 runs. They face Phillies righty Jerad Eickhoff, who has a 1.514 HR/9 allowed mark over the past year. Many of the Angels bats have excellent recent Statcast data: Projected No. 6 hitter Luis Valbuena has averaged a batted ball distance of 255 feet, an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 52 percent, and a hard hit rate of 47 percent over the last 15 days. Everyone in this stack is on the correct side of their splits, and they should have fairly low ownership.
Batters
Joey Gallo is always a difficult player to analyze because he typically has elite batting data but hits at the end of the order. That’s true again today: He’s projected to hit eighth for the Rangers, who are currently implied for 4.5 runs against Twins lefty Adalberto Mejia. This game doesn’t look to be conducive to batting — it is projected to be only 53 degrees at first pitch and there’s a 67 percent chance of rain — but Gallo has just ridiculous recent Statcast numbers. Over his last 11 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 275 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 54 percent, and a hard hit rate of 45 percent. There’s a ton of risk with rostering Gallo but also immense reward in GPPs.
Two Detroit hitters, Justin Upton and Victor Martinez, are hitting the ball well right now. Check out their recent Statcast data:
- Upton: 247-foot batted ball distance, 95 MPH exit velocity, 50 percent hard hit rate
- Martinez: 228-foot batted ball distance, 95 MPH exit velocity, 44 percent hard hit rate
That is bad news for Baltimore righty Chris Tillman, who has the third-highest HR/9 allowed mark on the slate at 1.698 and has been awful lately, giving up three home runs and 11 runs over his last two starts. He’s allowed a batted ball exit velocity of 93 MPH during that time frame, and he’s in a hitter’s park tonight at home. There should be some runs at Camden Yards.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
