The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a split slate: There’s a five-game early slate at 12:10 pm ET and a six-game main slate at 7:10 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is loaded with pitching; there are six players priced above $10,000 on DraftKings. For this section, we’ll focus on the four guys above $11,000:
Of all of the studs, only Robbie Ray is in the early slate. As you might expect, that should result in his being especially chalky. He’s back in the rotation after that scary moment in late July when he was hit in the head with a line drive and subsequently placed in the concussion protocol. He has a nice matchup against a Mets team that has been decimated by trades; their projected lineup in this matchup has a splits-adjusted wOBA of .286. Still, Ray’s opponent implied run total of 3.9 isn’t as low as you might expect, considering he’s allowed four runs just three times over his past 12 starts (four was the highest in that sample). The most important data point, however, is his high 10.1 K Prediction, which is a whopping 1.9 strikeouts higher than any other pitcher’s. Out of the 17,972 pitchers in our MLB Trends tool database for DraftKings, only 30 have had double-digit K Predictions in the past. Those pitchers have historically crushed value, averaging 27.2 DraftKings points and a +6.47 Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating:
In the main slate, Carlos Martinez and Chris Sale are tied with the lowest opponent implied total at 3.2 runs versus the Padres and Indians. They’re close in other areas, too: Martinez has a solid 76 Park Factor at home in St. Louis, while Sale has a 70 Park Factor in Cleveland. Sale’s past-year 12.352 SO/9 mark dominates Martinez’s 9.568, but they have similar K Predictions of 8.2 and 8.1 given Martinez’s matchup against the Padres, who rank second in the league with a high 25.4 percent strikeout rate. Now, the differences: First, Martinez is a much larger favorite with -225 moneyline odds. He’s easily the biggest favorite today, and pitchers with similar Vegas marks have historically been nice values on FanDuel:
Further, Martinez has the superior recent Statcast data:
- Martinez: 198-foot batted ball distance, 89 MPH exit velocity, 28 percent fly ball rate, 64 percent ground ball rate
- Sale: 224-foot batted ball distance, 91 MPH exit velocity, 43 percent fly ball rate, 40 percent ground ball rate
Martinez is Sale’s equal or superior in essentially every metric, and he’s $1,600 cheaper on DraftKings and $1,200 cheaper on FanDuel. That said, Sale’s potential to access his massive ceiling is high on every slate:
Martinez is a great cash-game play given his matchup, and Sale is a worthy pivot in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). After lineup lock Pro subscribers can see how other DFS players chose to use Martinez, Sale, and the other main slate pitchers by using our new DFS Contests Dashboard. Ownership rates across GPPs of various buy-in levels will also be available via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
While this slate is loaded at the top, it’s not balanced with values, which could make the salary difference between Sale and Martinez even more dramatic. It might be wise to pay up at both slots on DraftKings with Martinez and someone like Stephen Strasburg or Jake Arrieta, who are priced at $10,600 and $10,200. Stras has a tough matchup against the Houston Astros, who rank first in the league this season with a .355 team wOBA and are currently implied for 4.4 runs. That said, Stras was solid in his most recent start, striking out eight batters across 6.0 innings pitched. His Statcast data from that game was elite: He allowed a batted ball distance of 191 feet, an exit velocity of 83 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 38 percent, and a hard hit rate of just 15 percent. He is a +135 dog against Dallas Keuchel, but his 6.8 K Prediction suggests he has some upside, and he also gets the benefit of having home-plate umpire Chad Whitson, who has historically added 1.3 fantasy points over expectations for DraftKings pitchers.
Arrieta has a slightly better matchup against the Reds, who are implied for 4.2 runs; that’s a solid-enough mark in this slate. He’s in a tough park in Cincinnati, but he’s been solid of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 starts:
His recent Statcast data is excellent, too: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 198 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 37 percent, and a hard hit rate of 28 percent. One of those outings was at Chase Field, which gives hope for him today at the Great American Ball Park. Arrieta is actually a favorite with -162 moneyline odds, but he does have one glaring weakness on his resume — his low 5.8 K Prediction.
If you prefer a cheaper value pitcher with more strikeout upside, Minnesota righty Jose Berrios is $8,600 on DraftKings and has a 6.4 K Prediction — the sixth-highest mark in the slate. The issue is his Vegas data: He’s facing a White Sox team that, although it’s 25th this season with a .312 team wOBA, is implied for 4.5 runs. Part of that could be due to Berrios’ mediocre recent Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 91 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 40 percent. However, most of that was due to a disastrous outing two games ago against the Detroit Tigers in which he scored -9.90 DraftKings points. He rebounded in a big way last game, putting up 31.95 fantasy points against a good Diamondbacks offense and allowing just two hits across 7.0 innings. If the latter version of Berrios shows up against the White Sox, he’ll be the value play who wins GPPs.
Fastball
Dallas Keuchel: He has an opponent implied total of 3.7 runs, which is fine but higher than the other studs’ marks in Martinez and Sale. As a result, his ownership should be lower than usual, which is intriguing given his elite recent form: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 163 feet.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated early-slate DraftKings stack (per the player ratings in the Bales Model) currently belongs to the Detroit Tigers:
The Tigers are currently implied for 5.2 runs — the second-highest mark in the early slate — and they face Yankees lefty Jaime Garcia, who has concerning recent Statcast data. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 216 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 50 percent. That is dangerous against the Tigers, especially someone like leadoff hitter Ian Kinsler, who has averaged a batted ball distance of 227 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 40 percent over his last 12 games. He’s on the good side of his splits against a lefty, as evidenced by his .250 past-year ISO.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. FantasyDraft allows six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a top group for today’s main slate:
The Twins are currently implied for a whopping 5.7 runs, which leads the slate by 0.3 runs. They face White Sox lefty Derek Holland, who has been brutal in August:
His Statcast data is somehow even worse: Over his last three starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 227 feet and an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour. The Twins are not the greatest offense in the league, but just about any team in any league could put up numbers against Holland.
Batters
The Rangers are currently implied for just 4.4 runs, which means that their batters could be lower-owned than usual. That’s good news if you want roster projected cleanup hitter Adrian Beltre, who has smashed the ball of late: Over his last 14 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 234 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 45 percent. He’s on the wrong side of his splits against a righty, but he still owns a high .268 ISO and .401 wOBA.
One guy who could be due for positive regression soon is White Sox second baseman Yoan Moncada. Over his last 10 games, he has averaged a poor -1.21 DraftKings Plus/Minus and hit salary-based expectations just three times:
And yet he has great recent Statcast data: Over that same time frame, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 240 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 45 percent. His resulting +52 Recent Batted Ball Luck is one of the highest in the slate.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
