The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a split slate: There are four games in the 1:10 pm ET early slate and seven games in the 7:05 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
There are six pitchers today priced at $9,000 or higher, headlined by Boston ace Chris Sale:
Johnny Cueto is the only pitcher from this group in the early slate, which speaks to just how poor the pitching options are in that slate.
Sale continues to dominate essentially every time he takes the mound: He’s averaged a ridiculous +12.12 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 games with a 90 percent Consistency Rating:
He’s expensive today — he’s $2,000 more expensive than any other pitcher on DraftKings and $2,400 more on FanDuel — but it’s hard to argue he’s not worth it; he’s gone for at least nine strikeouts over his last four outings. He’s a strikeout machine, and his massive 9.1 K Prediction today, while just behind Robbie Ray‘s 9.2 mark, would dominate just about any other slate. For reference, there are six pitchers today with past-year SO/9 marks of over 10.0. Per our MLB Trends tool — and this applies to Ray as well — pitchers with similar data points have historically averaged 42.62 FanDuel points and a +7.16 Plus/Minus:
It is important to note that Sale has an awful -94 Recent Batted Ball Luck score; that’s a new metric, defined below:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
Given Sale’s high 229-foot batted ball distance over his last two starts, it might seem lucky that he finished with 64.0 and 53.0 fantasy points in those affairs. That said, distance doesn’t tell the whole story: Over that same time frame, he’s averaged an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of just 22 percent. The distance is admittedly not great, but he’s still allowing weak contact. As usual, Sale should command high ownership, even against a Tampa Bay Rays squad that is dangerous, ranking seventh in the league with a .190 team ISO.
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels on our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Lance McCullers is the highest-rated pitcher in the Bales Model today, and he’s been excellent recently, averaging a robust +7.70 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 80 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games. He did disappoint in his last start, going for just 25.0 fantasy points and allowing three earned runs to the Yankees, but his Statcast data suggests he’s in good form: Over his last two starts, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 175 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 29 percent, and a hard hit rate of 18 percent. Those are elite marks; he could certainly hold the Blue Jays to fewer than their implied total of 4.0 runs. McCullers has a respectable 7.9 K Prediction and is affordable at $9,400; given Sale’s inclusion in the slate, McCullers could have lower ownership levels than he would most days.
Values
Rich Hill is just $8,700 on FanDuel, and he has the second-lowest implied run total at 3.4. That’s impressive considering the Diamondbacks rank fifth in team wOBA this year, but they do have fairly extreme splits against righties and lefties. They’re the anti-White Sox: They are fourth in the league with a .344 team wOBA against right-handed pitchers but a miserable 29th with a .285 wOBA against lefties. Hill has dealt with his share of injuries and blisters, but he looked fantastic in his most recent start, posting 64.0 FanDuel points, striking out 11 batters, and allowing four hits and no runs. Predictably, he has excellent recent Statcast data, allowing a 205-foot batted ball distance, an 86 mph exit velocity, and a hard hit rate of 27 percent. Pitchers with similar data have historically hit value 60.9 percent of the time:
The early slate on both sites is brutal: No team is currently implied for less than 4.1 runs, and six of the eight are implied for 5.2 or more. The two pitchers with opponent implied run totals under 5.2 are Mike Montgomery and Michael Wacha, who sit at 4.2 and 4.1 against the Brewers and Marlins. They’re the best options in a bad slate, but the main difference between the two is that Montgomery is just $7,800, whereas Wacha is $10,700. Montgomery does have nice recent Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 174 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 19 percent, and a hard hit rate of 22 percent. He’s hit value in every start this year on DraftKings, although he’s now $1,000 more expensive than he’s ever been. The pickings are slim, but he at least has a respectable implied run total, leads the slate with a 6.9 K Prediction, and is moderately cheap. You could do worse.
Fastballs
Robbie Ray: Again, he leads all pitchers today with a massive 9.2 K Prediction. Regardless of other data points, similar pitchers have historically averaged 43.35 FanDuel points and a +8.47 Plus/Minus. He does have concerning recent Statcast data — he’s allowed a 228-foot batted ball distance, a 93 mph exit velocity, and a 48 percent hard hit rate over his last two starts — but there’s no denying his high upside.
Gio Gonzalez: If you want to roster a high-priced pitcher with super low ownership, Gio is perhaps your guy. He’s been excellent lately, posting a +4.66 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 90 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games . . .
. . . but he’s priced all the way up to $11,300 and has a two percent Bargain Rating. He’s $300 more than McCullers.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Ryan Sheppard covered the Twins, Astros, and Indians in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks, so I will discuss some other teams. On DraftKings, the top-rated five-man stack of the day (in the Bales Model) belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals, who are in the early slate:
They face Marlins righty Tom Koehler, who has absolutely putrid Statcast data, which includes just his last start: He allowed a 242-foot batted ball distance, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 40 percent. If he’s in similar form, it could be a quick day for him, especially against Matt Carpenter, who has averaged a 243-foot batted ball distance, a 95 mph exit velocity, and a 50 percent hard hit rate over his last 13 starts.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I wrote a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. They allow six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a highly-rated group for the main slate:
The Nationals are always dangerous: They rank second in the league this season with a massive .344 team wOBA. They face Atlanta righty Michael Foltynewicz, who has been solid lately, striking out 17 batters and allowing just two earned runs in his last two starts. But his Statcast data suggests he might have been a little lucky to post those games: In that same time frame, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 235 feet and a fly ball rate of 62 percent.
Batters
The top batters in terms of recent Statcast data are both Dodgers, and they’re projected to hit next to each other in the order. Here are their recent advanced marks:
- Justin Turner: 256-foot batted ball distance, 97 mph exit velocity, 50 percent hard hit rate
- Corey Seager: 217-foot batted ball distance, 96 mph exit velocity, 58 percent hard hit rate
They are facing Ray, which should lower their ownership levels in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), since people will likely want to chase strikeouts given Ray’s slate-high mark. They’re currently projected for just five to eight percent ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Houston first baseman Yulieski Gurriel is projected to bat seventh and is on the wrong side of his splits against lefty Francisco Liriano. Still, he leads all main slate batters with 10 DraftKings Pro Trends. He’s gone for 23.0, 28.0, and 28.0 fantasy points over his last three games, and he has excellent recent Statcast data: Over his last 12, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 226 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 50 percent. The Astros should be fairly chalky — they are currently implied for 5.1 runs — so jumping down to the No. 7 batter could help differentiate your GPP lineups.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
