The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a split slate: There’s a four-game early slate starting at 12:10 pm ET and a five-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are five pitchers today priced at $9,000 or above on FanDuel; Jimmy Nelson is the sole ‘stud’ in the early slate:
Giants lefty Madison Bumgarner is easily the highest-priced pitcher in the main slate, exceeding the field by $800 on DraftKings and $1,800 on FanDuel. While the pitching cohort isn’t an inspiring bunch, Bumgarner may not be worthy of his sky-high price tags either. He’s had just one start since returning from injury, and it was a lackluster outing: He scored just 31.0 FanDuel points in a pitcher’s park in San Diego against a Padres team that has been the most generous squad to opposing pitchers in 2017 (per the MLB Trends tool):
The Padres rank 29th this season with a .297 team wOBA and first with a massive 25.8 percent strikeout rate. If you were in a lab — perhaps a fantasy lab — concocting the perfect team to face your ace pitcher, it would be the 2017 Padres. Thus, Bumgarner’s outing, albeit not awful, was disappointing.
That said, there are some positive indicators here: In that start, he did get up to 102 pitches, which is arguably the most important stat moving forward after the injury. And while he did allow a high 50 percent fly ball rate in that game he kept the exit velocity down (90 miles per hour) and allowed a low rate of hard hits (25 percent). He allowed two home runs in that game but just four hits, so he wasn’t far off from a nice return.
I say all this because Bumgarner’s opponent today is none other than the same old Padres. He gets them at home, where he has a Park Factor of 93. Since 2012, he’s been solid at AT&T Park, averaging 42.44 FanDuel points, a +6.51 Plus/Minus, and a 65.4 percent Consistency Rating. Vegas bettors seem to believe he’ll get things rolling this time, as the Padres are currently implied for a day-low 2.9 runs. Bumgarner is a day-high -190 moneyline favorite, and his 8.2 K Prediction is the highest mark in the main slate. Even with his ‘meh’ first performance last week, he should be chalky. Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels on our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
If you want a pivot from Bumgarner, there’s a pretty easy one in Yankees righty Luis Severino, who faces a Mariners team currently implied for 3.8 runs. He’s been solid of late, averaging a nice +8.12 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 70 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games, the last three of which have come against dangerous offenses in the Red Sox, Brewers, and Astros. He’ll have his hands full again today, as Seattle’s projected lineup has a day-high .343 team wOBA, but Vegas bettors seem to believe in him, and he does come with stellar recent Statcast data. Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 190 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 41 percent, and a hard hit rate of 26 percent. Pitchers with similar recent advanced marks have historically been consistent, hitting salary-based expectations 61.0 percent of the time:
Severino is in a pitcher’s park in Seattle and has a top-five K Prediction of 7.1. But perhaps most importantly he’s projected for just 17-20 percent ownership, whereas Bumgarner is currently projected to be owned in 41-plus percent of lineups in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Touching quickly on Jimmy Nelson in the early slate: He has concerning recent Statcast data — he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 217 feet and an exit velocity of 91 miles per hour over his last two starts — and he faces a Pirates team implied for 4.3 runs. He has a low 5.6 K Prediction and is one of the lowest-rated pitchers in the Bales Model. If you do insist on rostering him, do so on FanDuel, where his $9,300 price tag comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Values
Pirates righty Jameson Taillon will likely be the popular option in the early slate despite disappointing last game, going for just 18.0 FanDuel points against the St. Louis Cardinals, allowing eight hits and four runs across 5.0 innings. He has a lot of things in his favor today, starting with being at home in Pittsburgh with an 87 Park Factor. He’s in a bit of a boom-or-bust matchup against the Brewers, who rank sixth in the league with a .328 team wOBA but also third with a high 25.4 percent strikeout rate. Vegas bettors are on his side: Milwaukee is implied for just 3.8 runs and Taillon is a -132 moneyline favorite. The Pirates have gotten just 38 percent of the ML bets so far today and yet their odds have remained steady. Taillon’s most important metric, however, is his K Prediction: With a massive 8.4, he’s tied with Luis Castillo for the slate’s highest mark; Castillo faces an Arizona team currently implied for 4.7 runs.
In the main slate, there aren’t a lot of great value options. The guys with the best Vegas data are Felix Hernandez and Brandon McCarthy, who have opponent implied run totals of 4.2 and 3.5. That said, they also have limited upside, as their K Predictions of 5.8 and 4.7 aren’t anything special. Felix does have solid Statcast data in his favor: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 192 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 28 percent, and a hard hit rate of 25 percent. That said, those games came against mediocre offenses in the White Sox and Athletics; the Yankees are a different animal, even with a slumping Aaron Judge. McCarthy’s 3.5 opponent implied run total seems nice, but it also might be a tad generous given his recent play:
That said, his Statcast data isn’t egregiously bad, and he leads all DraftKings pitchers today with 10 Pro Trends. I guess you could do worse. But you could also do better, which is why Bumgarner and Severino will be especially chalky in today’s main slate.
Fastballs
Jhoulys Chacin: He’s facing a Giants offense that is perhaps the worst in the league, as evidenced by their league-low .292 team wOBA. While he’s an underdog against Bumgarner, he does get the benefit of pitching in a pitcher’s park with a 94 Park Factor.
Luis Castillo: He’s in a hitter’s park at home against a powerful Arizona offense, but he also has a K Prediction of 8.4, which is tied for the highest mark of the day. He comes with a lot of risk, but his $6,900 DraftKings price tag is low enough to pursue the possible reward.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated stack in the DraftKings Bales Model for the early slate belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays, who are currently implied for 5.2 runs:
Their total has increased 0.4 runs since opening despite receiving only 36 percent of the ML bets. That qualifies for reverse line movement, which you can track on our MLB Vegas Dashboard:
They face Boston righty Doug Fister, who has atrocious Statcast data of late, allowing a batted ball distance of 230 feet and an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour. Given the lack of stud pitching options in the early slate, they’ll be easy to afford and thus popular.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. They allow six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a highly-rated group for the main slate:
The three highest-rated squads in the main slate are the Rangers, Dodgers, and Tigers, but since Ryan Sheppard covered all three in today’s stacking piece let’s pivot to an Orioles stack that’s a bit unconventional. Today’s main slate consists of only five games, which means it is more difficult than usual to be contrarian. It’s usually not a great idea to go heavy on No. 9 hitters, but Ruben Tejada is cheap at $6,800 and has eight hits over his last six games. The Orioles could surprise against Cole Hamels, who has allowed a poor 92 MPH exit velocity over his last two starts.
Batters
Luke Voit is essentially a must-play in early-slate cash games at just $2,200, as he’s hitting cleanup for a Cardinals team currently implied for 4.7 runs. He has amazing recent Statcast data: Over his last eight games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 254 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 50 percent, and a hard hit rate of 50 percent. The 26-year-old first baseman has just 47 major league at-bats under his belt, so it’s fine to take his extreme batting numbers with a grain of salt, but, again, the dude is almost minimum price and is batting cleanup for the Cardinals. Sometimes DFS is easy.
Aaron Judge has certainly been slumping . . .
. . . but his +10 Recent Batted Ball Luck indicates he might just be a little unlucky. He still has solid Statcast data over his last 10 games, averaging a batted ball distance of 242 feet and an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour. He still has a massive .404 wOBA and .294 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the last year, and he’s hitting in the No. 3 spot for a powerful Yankees offense when they’re rolling. If people jump off the Judge bandwagon for a time, carve out some space.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
