The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a split slate: There are six games in the 1:05 pm ET early slate and six games in the 7:05 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
There are five pitchers today priced at $9,000 or higher on FanDuel; of those, Luis Severino and Jake Arrieta are in the main slate.
Severino came back to earth last game after going for 50-plus FanDuel points in three of his prior four starts, finishing his outing against the Athletics with just 24.0 fantasy points thanks to four earned runs. Despite that blemish, he still boasts elite recent Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 180 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 51 percent. Vegas bettors don’t seem worried about his last start, either: The opposing Angels are currently implied for 3.6 runs — 0.3 runs less than any other team today — and his massive -230 moneyline is the highest mark among all starting pitchers by a lot:
Moneyline odds have proven to be an incredibly valuable predictor of DFS success for pitchers; our Trends tool shows that pitchers with comparable ML odds have historically crushed, averaging 39.34 FanDuel points, a +6.12 Plus/Minus, and a 65.9 percent Consistency Rating:
Severino’s 6.6 K Prediction is lower than his typical marks, but he brings immense safety in cash games.
Carlos Martinez is in the early slate, and he leads all pitchers by 1.2 strikeouts with an 8.1 K Prediction today. He’s gone for at least eight strikeouts in each of his last five games, and he’s posted an impressive +13.80 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 80 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10:
He’s been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball and today gets the Phillies, who rank 28th this season with a poor .300 team wOBA and seventh with a high 22.8 percent team strikeout rate. They’ve been especially generous to the best pitchers this season: Guys priced $10,000-plus have averaged 42.36 FanDuel points and a +7.21 Plus/Minus against them. That sample includes Martinez himself, who went for 70.0 FanDuel points and 48.25 DraftKings points 12 days ago, allowing no runs and just four total hits across a full nine innings while striking out 11 batters. He was $10,000 then and today is only $400 more expensive on FanDuel, where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
His Statcast data is predictably great, especially since it includes that gem from two weeks ago: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 206 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 34 percent, and a hard hit rate of just 28 percent. The main issue with both Severino and Martinez is that they will likely have high ownership; our ownership projections are only for the main slate, and Severino is currently at 36-40 percent on FanDuel. Martinez will probably be at least that high in the early slate, and both players will shoot past 50 percent ownership on DraftKings, given the need to roster two pitchers. They’re stellar plays, but be sure to find lower-owned batters to pair with them in tournaments.
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
Since there are only two teams with run totals under 4.0, there are not many ‘safe’ pitchers other than those listed above, which will further boost the ownership of the studs. All other pitchers have their warts, and you’ll have to choose what’s more important: Vegas data, recent form, or strikeout upside.
In terms of Vegas data, Hyun-jin Ryu and Jaime Garcia are about as good as it gets: They have opponent implied run totals of 3.9 and 4.1 against the Mets and Giants, and they’re the second-largest favorites of the day with ML odds at -148 currently. That said, they diverge when it comes to other data. Garcia has a far superior matchup against a Giants squad that ranks dead last this season with a putrid .289 team wOBA. Perhaps more importantly, they have very different recent Statcast data.
- Ryu: 232-foot batted ball distance, 94 mph exit velocity, 42 percent hard hit rate
- Garcia: 177-foot batted ball distance, 88 mph exit velocity, 24 percent hard hit rate
Oddly enough, and probably because of the Vegas data, Ryu is projected to be much chalkier than Garcia.
If you choose guys with good recent form, Garcia stands out as well as Ivan Nova:
He has arguably the best recent Statcast data outside of Severino and Antonio Senzatela, as he’s allowed an exit velocity of 88 mph, a fly ball rate of 34 percent, and a hard hit rate of just 31 percent over his last two starts. During that span, he’s gone for 40.0 FanDuel points in both games, one of which was a one-hit outing against the Marlins. He’s risky today — he’s facing the Brewers, who are implied for 4.7 runs — but he should be low-owned as well.
And, finally, if you desire strikeout upside, there’s Aaron Nola, who has solid recent Statcast data in addition to the second-highest K Prediction of the day at 6.9 versus the Cardinals. He has an opponent implied run total of 4.6, and he hasn’t been great at scoring fantasy points lately — he’s gone for just 21.0 and 24.0 FanDuel points in his last two games — but he did go for 49.0 in the game prior to that with eight strikeouts.
Nola also might be investable outside of DFS, as he’s currently -115 to hit the over on his strikeout prop of 5.5, which is substantially lower than his K Prediction. That said, a pitcher’s ability to get strikeouts is dependent on his staying in the game, and Nola’s opponent implied total of 4.6 runs isn’t ideal. Today the way to play strikeout props is perhaps to find value on multiple unders, given all the high run totals.
Again, the pickings are slim outside of the studs, although that does mean it will be easier to be contrarian in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Fastballs
Jake Arrieta: He’s averaged an awful -6.21 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 starts, but he’s tied for the second-highest K Prediction today at 6.9 against the Marlins. He owns an 86 Park Factor in Miami, and his +14 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) suggests he’s been a bit unlucky.
Chase Anderson: It’s not exciting to pay $9,400 on DraftKings for Anderson, but he has been solid lately, ranking second among all pitchers today with an average of 27.7 DraftKings points per game over the last month. He faces a Pirates team that ranks 25th with a .311 team wOBA.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Since the pitching options today are so terrible, there are an unusually high number of viable stacks today. We covered three of them in today’s MLB Pro Model Stacks, and I’ll touch on a couple more here. There’s a game at Coors Field today, so it’s no surprise that the highest-rated five-man stack for the early slate belongs to the Rockies (per the Bales Model):
The Diamondbacks-Rockies game went for 21 runs yesterday, although 16 of those were for the Diamondbacks. That could shift ownership today, and people might be a little lower on the Rockies because they’re facing Zack Godley, who has been a decent fantasy asset lately with at least 20.0 DraftKings points in five of his last seven games. Of course, Godley’s -74 RBBL indicates he’s been lucky: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 224 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 43 percent. He could get rocked at Coors.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man stack in the main slate belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees are always in play: They rank first in the league with a high .349 team wOBA. That said, they could be somewhat contrarian in a specific way tonight. They’re implied for 5.5 runs — the best mark in the slate, tied with the Indians — but because Severino is projected to be so chalky, he could bring down the ownership of some of his teammates. Three-man Yankees stacks will be popular, but four-man stacks (with a different pitcher) will be contrarian. This particular stack could be even more contrarian with No. 6 batter Gary Sanchez, who has averaged a +13.50 Plus/Minus with an 80 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games.
Batters
I’ve talked about our proprietary RBBL metric several times. Here’s the definition in case you’re unfamiliar:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
One guy with a high RBBL is Yoenis Cespedes, who has done this over his last several games . . .
. . . all the while averaging a batted ball distance of 214 feet and a fly ball rate of 44 percent. He’s facing Ryu, whose ominous Statcast data I detailed above; Cespedes is due for some positive regression, which could come tonight.
Another guy with a high RBBL is Oakland shortstop Chad Pinder, who is currently projected to bat second against the Astros (per our MLB Lineups page). Over his last 13 games, he’s posted a batted ball distance of 239 feet and an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour. He’s only $2,800 on FanDuel, where he has a 76 percent Bargain Rating.
Also, it’s wise to look at guys on the other end of the spectrum — players who have negative RBBL marks and have been getting lucky of late. One such player is Jason Kipnis, who is projected to bat leadoff for the Indians. He’s gone for 15-plus FanDuel points in four of his last six games despite posting concerning Statcast data: Over his last 10 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 182 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 25 percent. It’s tough to find an edge in daily fantasy baseball during the dog days of summer, and being ahead of the curve on impending regression can provide a leg up.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
