The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a split slate: There are four games in the 12:10 pm ET early slate and four games in the 7:05 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
Four of the 16 pitchers today have FanDuel salaries of $9,000 or higher:
Corey Kluber hasn’t pitched in a month due to a stint on the disabled list because of a strained lower back. Coming off a solid 2016 season, he struggled to get things going early on, but he was rounding into form before his DL trip:
If all that mattered were Kluber’s metrics, he would be the chalk today. He faces an Oakland team that ranks 23rd this season with a .313 wOBA, and the projected lineup has been even worse over the past year against right-handed pitchers, averaging a .292 wOBA. The Athletics are currently implied for a day-low 3.4 runs, and Kluber is an absolutely massive moneyline favorite at -214. Pitchers with similar Vegas data have historically been incredibly valuable, averaging 38.46 FanDuel points and hitting expectations an impressive 70.4 percent of the time (per the MLB Trends tool):
Further, the Athletics rank second on the year with a large 24.8 strikeout rate; Kluber leads all pitchers with an 8.1 K Prediction. Again, Kluber would be chalky if all that mattered were his numbers — and he still might be, but there are some concerns, too.
First, he’s coming off the DL for a back issue. We can likely assume that the Indians wouldn’t let him pitch today if they didn’t he’s fine, but that doesn’t mean that he’s 100 percent healthy or that he’ll even get full innings. In fact, it looks unlikely that he will. Here’s what manager Terry Francona had to say:
He’s not going to pitch all day. I guarantee you that. The key is to win, but also set him up for the rest of the year. We’ll keep an eye on him. We’ll probably aggravate him a time or two by asking him how he’s doing.
Again, a pitch count isn’t necessarily a disqualification — especially if it’s closer to 90 pitches than somewhere in the 70s. That said, there’s uncertainty here. It may turn out not to matter all that much against the Athletics, but Kluber could be worth a fade in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), especially if he’s expected to have exorbitant ownership levels. Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Zack Greinke is back closer to his old Dodgers form in his second season with the Diamondbacks. A year after posting a mediocre 1.273 WHIP and uninspiring 7.6 SO/9 rate, he’s at 0.995 and 10.5 this season. He struggled in his last game, but overall his fantasy production has been excellent: He’s averaged a +10.34 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 games:
His recent Statcast data isn’t particularly — he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 225 feet and a fly ball rate of 50 percent over the last 15 days — but many of those balls weren’t hit that hard (exit velocity of 90 miles per hour), and he’s in a pitcher’s park in Miami. The park alone could mute any Statcast issues he might be having. He’s only a small favorite at -120, but the Marlins are currently implied for just 3.9 runs. His 6.9 K Prediction isn’t anything special, but it might be conservatively low: His SO/9 rate this season is higher than it was last season, and our SO/9 metric (which is included in the formula for K Prediction) is a running 12-month average. The Marlins don’t strike out a ton against righties — they’re 21st in the league with a 20.2 percent K rate — but Greinke has the stuff to put up a big game. Kluber is in the early slate, while Greinke is in the main one; they’ll likely be chalky in their respective contests.
Values
DraftKings pricing is tough today: None of the seven highest-priced pitchers have Bargain Ratings above 50 percent. Only Miami lefty Jeff Locke has a Bargain Rating above 75 percent. Brandon McCarthy is a little pricey at $9,000, but not egregiously so, and he’s affordable on FanDuel at $8,600. He has missed salary-based expectations in just two games this season, and he’s gone for 40-plus FanDuel points in each of his last two. Further, he has absolutely ridiculous Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 161 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 27 percent. Players with similar distance and K Prediction marks — he’s at 7.3 today — have historically returned nice value:
He’s a small -116 moneyline favorite opposite Adam Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals, but the rest of his data suggests he’s safe for cash games.
Most DFS players will roster Greinke or Marco Estrada in the main slate tonight, but let’s at least make an argument for a value option. Alex Meyer has the lowest average pitch count today at 86 per start. That said, he can go more than that if he’s pitching well, as he did two games ago against the Detroit Tigers, when he put up 47.0 FanDuel points thanks to seven strikeouts and just three hits allowed in 96 pitches. Over his last two games, he’s allowed just six hits and has racked up 14 strikeouts; his past-year 10.734 SO/9 rate actually leads all pitchers in the main slate today. Further, he’s in a pitcher’s park at home in Anaheim, and the visiting Twins are currently implied for just 4.2 runs. That might seem high, but note that no team is implied for fewer than 4.1 runs in the main slate. Meyer leads the slate with a 7.7 K Prediction and could surprise at low ownership in GPPs.
Fastballs
Marco Estrada: He’s been incredible lately, allowing just two earned runs and striking out 20 batters in his last two games. His Statcast data from that time is also elite: He’s allowed a batted ball distance of 199 feet, exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 30 percent. People will likely prefer Greinke over him because of the matchups — the former is in Miami, while Estrada battles a potent Yankees offense — but Estrada has just as high of a ceiling.
Adam Wainwright: Don’t look now, but he’s gone for 40-plus FanDuel points in each of his last three games. His Statcast data suggests it hasn’t been fluky: He’s allowed a distance of 199 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 25 percent. He should be low-owned given Kluber’s return as well as his in-game duel with the favored McCarthy.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per player ratings in the Bales Model) currently belongs to the Cleveland Indians:
We typically don’t get to roster the Indians, as they often play at an odd time of 6pm ET, but they’re in the early slate today. They face Oakland righty Jharel Cotton, who has absolutely miserable Statcast data: In his last start, he allowed a batted ball distance of 295 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 84 percent, and a hard hit rate of 46 percent. Those are not typos. The Indians are predictably implied to score a slate-high 5.2 runs, and many of their batters should be popular. Francisco Lindor is one of the top players in the Bales Model, owning a .359 past-year wOBA against right-handed pitchers.
The highest-rated four-man FanDuel stack in the main slate currently belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
I know: I just talked about how Meyer, opposing the Twins, is worth a look in GPPs. What I didn’t mention was that his Statcast data from his last game makes the Twins worth considering: He allowed a distance of 250 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 44 percent. It’s a small sample, but it doesn’t really hurt Meyer as a tournament play. In order to outpace Greinke and Estrada, he’ll need to rack up strikeouts; that’s still possible. But, of course, he could also allow a lot of runs to the Twins. Brian Dozier has averaged a 240-foot batted ball distance over his last 14 games and owns a .277 ISO mark against righties. Perhaps a bit of both Meyer and the Twins could work in GPPs tonight (although not in the same lineups).
Batters
Since both slates today are small and we’ve already covered many batters and stacks between this piece, Three Key MLB Players, and MLB Pro Model Stacks, let’s talk about our new Recent Batted Ball Luck metric and see if we can find some undervalued options. Here’s the definition of that stat:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
Take a guy like the Angels’ Jefry Marte, who is projected to bat cleanup today. Over his last nine games he’s had middling fantasy production, averaging just a +0.49 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 40 percent Consistency Rating:
But his Statcast data suggests he’s hitting the ball better than that: In that same time period, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 229 feet and exit velocity of 93 miles per hour. He doesn’t have the largest sample of at-bats, as he hasn’t been an everyday player and is moving up in the order because of Mike Trout‘s injury, but it should be noted he’s made good contact when given the chance. And it’s hard to discount a cleanup batter at just $3,400 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel.
You can do this same exercise with more prestigious batters, too. Jose Ramirez is batting fifth for a high-implied Cleveland team, and he’s probably been a little unlucky of late. He’s averaged a -0.03 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 30 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games, and he’s way up there in price at $5,000:
That’s a steep salary for a batter playing poorly, but his Statcast data suggests he could turn it around: Over his last 11 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 225 feet and exit velocity of 92 miles per hour. Rinse, repeat, find value.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
