The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a split slate: There are six games in the 12:05 pm ET early slate and five games in the 7:10 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
Among the five highest-priced pitchers on FanDuel today, only Jeff Samardzija is in the early slate:
Jacob deGrom is the class of the day, but he’ll cost you: At $12,100 on DraftKings and $11,000 on FanDuel, he’s $2,200 and $1,600 more expensive than any other option. That said, he could absolutely be worth it: He’s facing the San Diego Padres, who rank 28th this season with a poor .287 team wOBA and are currently implied for a day-low 3.1 runs. deGrom is the second-largest favorite of the day at -195, and he’s coming off a gem of an outing in which he put up 58.0 FanDuel points thanks to nine strikeouts and zero earned runs across seven innings against the Angels. His Statcast data is solid enough: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 202 feet, an exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 26 percent.
That said, there is some risk here: Our Player Models currently have the Mets game with a 72 percent chance of precipitation at game time. Weather can certainly change throughout the day, but be sure to monitor that situation leading up to lock. If the game looks clear, he should be the chalkiest pitcher of the day; not only does he boast the best Vegas data, but he also owns the slate’s third-highest K Prediction at 7.8. Our Models currently project him to be owned in 41-plus percent of lineups on DraftKings and 31-35 percent of lineups on FanDuel.
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Kenta Maeda started off the season poorly through four games but has since come on strong over his last three:
That said, he hasn’t pitched since May 10th due to a stint on the DL for hamstring tightness. That’s not ideal, but notes from the OC Register suggest that Maeda could be fine tonight:
Maeda went on the DL two weeks ago, ostensibly for that troublesome hamstring — a day after he took a shutout into the ninth inning of a game during which he covered first base three times with no apparent difficulty. The pause was due more to a blockage — the seven pitchers the Dodgers were trying to stuff into their rotation — than any leg issues and came at a rather inopportune time for Maeda.
His Statcast data from his last start shows no reason for concern: He allowed an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of just 24 percent. Today he faces a Cardinals team that has been a little below-average offensively this season, ranking 20th in the league with a .156 team ISO. Vegas bettors seem to be not concerned with Maeda or this matchup either: He’s currently a solid favorite at -148, and the Cardinals are implied for 3.4 runs. While he struggled to make batters whiff in his first four games of the season, he’s since gone for eight strikeouts in two of his last three. He definitely has upside in that regard today: The Cardinals’ projected lineup has the fourth-highest SO/AB rate of the day, and Maeda’s 8.4 K Prediction is the second-best mark among all pitchers.
Values
Zach Davies has had an up-and-down season so far, averaging a -2.46 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 33 percent Consistency through nine starts. Those aren’t great numbers, but he is trending in the right direction, exceeding value in three of his last five. He’s in an interesting spot salary-wise tonight, as he sits about $1,000 below guys like Robbie Ray and Michael Wacha and just $400 below Drew Pomeranz. The first two have been especially solid of late, and all three of those guys have superior opponent run totals. Davies has a tough matchup today against a Diamondbacks squad that ranks fourth this season with a .190 team ISO. All that said, there is upside here: Arizona ranks fifth with a 23.1 percent strikeout rate this year, and thus Davies has a top-five K Prediction. But what makes the young Brewers righty stand out from the surrounding options is his Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 187 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 29 percent, and a hard hit rate of 29 percent. In a small slate, Davies could be an intriguing low-cost contrarian option in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
As mentioned above, there aren’t any high-end options in the early slate today; only one team (Angels) is currently implied for less than 4.0 runs. Tyler Anderson is only a slight favorite at -115 against a Phillies team currently implied for 4.2 runs, but his recent results and Statcast data are more encouraging. He has done this over his last three starts . . .
. . . and today faces a Phillies team that ranks 11th in the league with a 22.3 percent strikeout rate. He has upside, and he also might be a little more safe than his Vegas data indicates: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 189 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 21 percent, and a hard hit rate of 17 percent. He gets the benefit of having Ron Kulpa behind home plate, who has historically added 2.2 FanDuel points over expectations to pitchers. Anderson is in play on both sites, but he’s especially valuable on FanDuel, where his $8,200 price tag comes with a 73 percent Bargain Rating. Make sure to monitor the small chance of precipitation in this one leading up to early lock.
Fastballs
Robbie Ray: He owns the slate’s highest K Prediction at 9.1 against the Brewers, who rank second in the league this season with a high 24.3 percent strikeout rate. He’s slightly more valuable on DraftKings, where his $8,600 salary comes with a 66 percent Bargain Rating.
Mike Clevinger: The weather looks particularly brutal in this affair, but Clevinger is in play if things clear. He’s coming off a gem, allowing two hits and striking out eight batters against a powerful Houston offense. He’s allowed a low 172-foot batted ball distance and a 17 percent hard hit rate over his last two.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Let’s generate a five-man DraftKings stack (in the Bales Model) for the early slate and then a four-man FanDuel stack for the main slate:
The Yankees and Rays are both currently implied for 5.0 runs — the highest mark in the early slate of games. The biggest difference between the two is cost: The Rays are far ahead of the Yankees in terms of DraftKings Team Value Rating (TVR):
Steven Souza is batting fifth for the Rays today and costs just $3,400 on DraftKings. He went for two home runs last night, and his Statcast data suggests he’s been crushing the ball of late: Over his last nine games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 249 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 55 percent.
On FanDuel, one of the highest-rated stacks belongs to the Houston Astros, who are currently implied for 4.7 runs.
That is a somewhat surprising number, as they face Detroit righty Justin Verlander, who owns the best past-year WHIP among pitchers in the main slate. That said, this explosive Houston offense can score against anyone: They own the sixth-highest wOBA in the league this year and rarely strike out, as evidenced by their 29th-ranked 18.9 percent K rate. George Springer has not seen a lot of fantasy production of late — he owns a -0.82 FanDuel Plus/Minus on just 20 percent Consistency over his last 10 — but his Statcast data hints at impending regression: Over his last 13, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 217 feet and a hard hit rate of 41 percent.
Batters
Michael Conforto is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now:
And, per his Statcast data, it is certainly not a fluke: Over his last 12 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 268 feet, an exit velocity of 99 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 48 percent, and a hard hit rate of 65 percent. Those are ridiculous marks. He has a .238 ISO against right-handed pitchers, and he faces Padres prospect Dinelson Lamet, who is making his major league debut today.
Tigers outfielder Tyler Collins is just $2,700 on DraftKings and projected to hit second for an offense implied for 4.4 runs. He has struggled a bit of late, but our Recent Batted Ball Luck metric suggests he’s been unlucky. Here’s a definition of that stat:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
Over Collins’ last 10 games, he’s put up this middling production:
And yet, he has stellar Statcast data: Over that same time frame, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 244 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 52 percent, and a hard hit rate of 38 percent. Things could turn around for him today against Houston righty Mike Fiers, who owns the highest HR/9 rate (1.977) among all pitchers in the main slate.
I haven’t mentioned Boston, who is currently implied for a day-high 5.4 runs. Like the Astros, they rarely strike out — they rank dead last this season with a 17.3 K rate — and their .326 team wOBA sits 10th in the league. Mookie Betts is projected to bat leadoff today, and he has a respectable 61 Park Factor as a righty at home. He owns a .390 wOBA and .211 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year, and he gets Nick Martinez, whose 1.462 WHIP is the worst mark in the slate. Betts is one of the best hitters in the league, and he also has stolen-base upside, as evidenced by his .150 SB/G mark over the past year.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
