Wednesday has a split slate: There are four games in the 12:37 pm ET early slate and seven games in the 7:10 pm ET main slate. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Studs
There is a big gap today between the most expensive pitcher, Chris Sale at $13,300 on DraftKings, and the No. 2 guy, and then there’s also a large gap between the three top guys in Sale, Noah Syndergaard, and Stephen Strasburg and everyone else:
Syndergaard’s data stands out, as he has an opponent implied run total of 2.8 versus the Phillies — the lowest mark today — and Thor’s 8.5 K Prediction is the highest mark among all pitchers. He’s been solid to start the season, inducing groundballs 60 percent of the time and allowing a hard hit rate of 189 feet across his last two starts. He’s allowed just three earned runs total in 2017 across 19 innings, and today he gets a Phillies team that ranks seventh in strikeout rate this season, whiffing on 23.7 percent of their at-bats. Pitchers who have been projected for 8.5-plus strikeouts and implied to give up less than three runs have been outstanding historically, per our Trends tool:
Strasburg also has positive indicators: He’s the cheapest of the three ‘studs’ on both sites, he owns a top-five K Prediction at 7.3, and the Braves are currently implied for 3.3 runs — the second-lowest mark today. Stras has averaged a +6.16 FanDuel Plus/Minus across three starts in 2017, exceeding salary-based expectations each time. His Statcast data is even better than Thor’s: Over the past two starts, Strasburg has allowed an exit velocity of just 86 miles per hour and a fly ball rate of 27 percent, and he’s limited hard hits to just 19 percent of at-bats. Pitchers on FanDuel with similar velocity, hard hit, and K Prediction marks have historically crushed value:
While Sale’s elevated salary and inferior data points make him less appealing as a cash-game option, he has massive upside in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). In 2017, he’s struck out 29 batters in 21.2 innings pitched:
His Statcast data is more concerning — he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 211 feet and a 91 MPH exit velocity over those first three starts — but that may not even matter. In order for batted balls to affect a pitcher negatively, the ball has to hit the bat. Sale makes that very difficult for opposing hitters. He’s averaged 41.35 FanDuel points historically when he’s gotten 80-plus percent of moneyline bets, as he’s gotten today:
Values
Aaron Nola could be a popular option today given his strikeout upside and low price point — he’s just $7,900 on FanDuel, where he has a 75 percent Bargain Rating. His 7.3 K Prediction is tied with Strasburg’s for fifth, and he’s been solid in that regard in 2017. He’s gotten 13 Ks over 11 innings through his first two starts, and that’s despite in each game facing the Nationals, who rank first this season in team wOBA at .362 and are generally just a brutal matchup for every opposing pitcher.
Superstar Bryce Harper went 4-4 last night with two home runs, and this is his last three games:
That Nola hit value in both games against the Nats is impressive, and he gets an easier matchup today against the Mets. He isn’t likely to get a win — he’s up against Thor — but he has a lot of upside at his price point.
I’m not sure if we can consider James Paxton a ‘value’ today at $9,000 on FanDuel — but considering the salaries of the top guys, we’re rolling with it. He has been outstanding to start the season, averaging a ridiculous +22.84 FanDuel Plus/Minus on perfect Consistency over his first three starts. He’s gone for 61.0 and 55.0 points in his last two, and he’s allowed just eight hits and zero earned runs through 21 innings while striking out 22 batters. That’s ridiculous production, and his Statcast data is encouraging as well: Over those three games, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 88 MPH and a hard hit rate of just 23 percent. His average velocity is down 1.1 MPH from last season, so that’s something to monitor, but it’s hard to ignore those last three games, especially since the Athletics have an opposing run total of just 3.4 runs today.
Fastballs
Carlos Martinez: He’s facing the Brewers, who easily rank first in the league this year with a team .236 ISO and second with a 26.7 percent strikeout rate; he’s gone for double-digit strikeouts in two of three starts this year.
Danny Duffy: The Rangers are currently implied for 4.4 runs; he boasts the second-highest K Prediction today at 8.4, and he’s especially cheap on DraftKings at $8,200 with an 84 percent Bargain Rating.
Daniel Norris: He’s cheap on FanDuel, where his $7,300 salary comes with a 65 percent Bargain Rating; he owns the third-highest K Prediction today at 8.1 against a Rays team that ranks first in K rate this season.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Let’s use the Bales Model to build a five-man DraftKings stack for the early slate and a four-man FanDuel stack for the main slate:
A Twins 1-2-3-4-6 stack sits at the top, yet their implied run total of 4.2 is lower than the totals for the Astros and Indians. Those two teams will likely be the most popular of the small slate, and there’s potentially a nice edge in using our Vegas Dashboard to track line movement: The Astros and Indians opened at 4.9 and 4.7 implied runs, but they’ve since moved down to just 4.5 and 4.4 runs:
Miguel Sano is particularly intriguing today, as he’s averaged a ridiculous 234-foot batted ball distance, a 97 MPH exit velocity, and a 57 percent hard hit rate over his last 12 games.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack in the main slate belongs to the Baltimore Orioles:
This 1-2-3-4 straight stack will likely be popular, as the Orioles are tied with the Royals for the highest implied run total tonight at 4.7 runs. They face off against Reds righty Scott Feldman, who actually hasn’t been that bad this season: Over his first two starts, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 88 MPH and a hard hit rate of just nine percent. The Orioles scored just two runs last night, but they still have solid marks on the season, ranking sixth in team ISO (.187) in 2017. This game does have some nasty weather incoming (per our Lineups page), so monitor that prior to lineup lock. That could certainly affect ownership levels.
Batters
R.A. Dickey owns the worst past-year HR/9 allowed mark among pitchers in the main slate at 1.604. He’s facing the Nationals and Bryce Harper, who has four homers in his last three games. Check out the game log picture above if you are unsure of what to do here.
Here’s our daily definition of our new Recent Batted Ball Luck metric:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
Matt Carpenter stands out with a high 54 Recent BBL mark over his last 10 games: He hasn’t scored many fantasy points over that stretch . . .
. . . but his Statcast data isn’t bad: He’s averaged a ridiculous batted ball distance of 253 feet and a 92 MPH exit velocity over that time period. He’s projected to bat third today for the Cardinals, and he’s on the right side of his splits against Milwaukee righty Zach Davies, who is horrible with a -15.06 FanDuel Plus/Minus across three starts this season.
It’s great to find undervalued players with our Recent BBL metric, but it’s also important to note which players are just crushing the ball and scoring fantasy points. Eric Thames is the ultimate example of that: He has an average -6 Recent BBL mark over his last 12 games, but that’s much less important than his raw Statcast data. During that time period, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 237 feet, a 94 MPH exit velocity, and a hard hit rate of 51 percent. That’s darn impressive no matter which side of luck he’s on, and it’s important to note and account for that within your model.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
