The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and Predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features an eight-game main slate that starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Pitching options are thin up top on Thursday, with just two pitchers on DraftKings eclipsing $10,000:
- Justin Verlander (R) $13,400, HOU vs. CWS – C. Rodon (L)
- Johnny Cueto (R) $11,800, SF vs. STL – L. Weaver (R)
Verlander leads the slate in K Prediction (8.3), opponent implied run total (2.5) and moneyline odds (-301). He’s the only pitcher with a K Prediction above 7.0 and moneyline odds greater than -200. He’s been cruising over the past 12 months, sporting an excellent 0.86 WHIP and 10.88 SO/9. The matchup against the White Sox is strong, with their projected lineup possessing a 26.4% strikeout rate and pedestrian .313 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against right-handed pitching over the past year. He’s by far the best pitching option on the slate; in the FantasyLabs database, we have 61 instances where a pitcher’s opponent was implied for 2.5 runs or fewer, and those pitchers have historically dominated, per our MLB Trends tool, posting 30.79 fantasy points per game, a +8.04 average Plus/Minus, and a 72.1% Consistency Rating.
Cueto (elbow) is making his first start since April. Before this start against the Cardinals, Cueto had a great outing in Triple-A, striking out 10 batters in 7.2 innings without allowing an earned run. It’s an average matchup against the Cardinals, who rank 18th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season. Their projected lineup owns a 24.2% strikeout rate and .322 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Cueto’s 5.8 K Prediction is mediocre, but it’s the third-highest mark on the day and the Cardinals’ 3.5 implied run total trails only the White Sox. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions, salaries and Vegas data have been below average, averaging 18.51 fantasy points per game, a -0.78 Plus/Minus, and a 50.7% Consistency Rating.
Values
Luke Weaver is a slight underdog against the Giants (+126 moneyline odds), but his 6.3 K Prediction is the second-best mark of the day. The matchup isn’t the greatest, as the Giants’ projected lineup has just a 21.5% strikeout rate against righties over the past year and ranks 10th in split-adjusted wRC+ this season. Despite the unfavorable matchup, pitchers with comparable K Predictions, salaries and Vegas data tend to be serviceable, having posted 15.53 fantasy points per game, a +1.82 average Plus/Minus, and a 58.5% Consistency Rating.
Jeremy Hellickson and the Nationals are the second-largest favorite on the day (-187 moneyline odds) against a Marlins team implied for a paltry 3.8 runs. It’s an advantageous matchup for Hellickson, as the projected Marlins lineup possesses a woeful .265 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months and ranks 24th in split-adjusted wRC+ against them this season. Hellickson doesn’t come without his risks, though: He owns a 1.85 HR/9 and a subpar 6.75 SO/9 over the past year.
Fastballs
Shelby Miller has a favorable matchup against a Padres team that ranks 27th in wRC+ against righties this season, posting an aggressively high 26.3% strikeout rate and an atrocious .295 wOBA against them over the past year. The Diamondbacks are -149 moneyline favorites and the Padres’ 3.9 implied run total is the fourth-lowest on the main slate. The main concern here is Miller’s 210-foot average batted-ball distance, 93-mph exit velocity, and 50% hard-hit rate over his past two starts.
Marco Gonzalez has been solid over the past month, averaging a +4.76 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 64% Consistency. Overall, it’s a below average matchup for Gonzalez in this spot, as the Angels aren’t a high strikeout team and he isn’t a high strikeout pitcher (7.78 SO/9 over the past 12 months). That said, he’ll be in a pitcher-friendly venue (Park Factor of 70), and the Mariners check in as -126 moneyline favorites.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Diamondbacks who are implied for 5.0 runs:
1. Dyson (L)
2. Ahmed (R)
3. Goldschmidt (R)
4. Pollock (R)
6. Marte (R)
Total Salary: $20.2k
The Diamondbacks are set to square off against Eric Lauer, who has allowed a decent amount of hard contact over his past two starts, as evidenced by his 92-mph exit velocity and 41% hard-hit rate to opposing hitters over that span. Meanwhile, Paul Goldschmidt has been obliterating the baseball over his past 12 games, sporting a 246-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity, and 51% hard-hit rate. All of those marks are positive differentials when compared to his 12-month averages. It’s a great matchup for Goldy, who possess an elite .475 wOBA and .397 isolated power (ISO) against left-handed pitchers over the past year.
Nick Ahmed also has favorable wOBA (.354) and ISO (.241) numbers against lefties over the past year. He’s generated loads of hard contact over the past 15 days, as evidenced by his 93-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate. The Weather Rating of 83 for hitters is another bonus, as hitters in comparable conditions with similar implied run totals have historically averaged a +1.10 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
In the Tournament Model on FanDuel, the top four-man stack belongs to the Astros, who are implied for 5.1 runs:
1. Springer (R)
2. Bregman (R)
4. Gurriel (R)
5. Gattis (R)
Total Salary: $14.4k
The Astros will take on Carols Rodon, who sports one of the worst HR/9 marks (1.90) on the slate. Alex Bregman is on a heater over the past month, averaging a +5.06 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 62% Consistency. The matchup against a lefty suits him well since he’s put up an elite .425 wOBA and .287 ISO against them over the past 12 months. He’s smoking the baseball over his past 12 games as well, with a 237-foot average batted-ball distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 44% hard-hit rate. Additionally, his 55% fly-ball rate within the same time frame may pair well with Rodon’s fly-ball tendencies. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball data featured in games with similar implied run totals have historically averaged a +3.05 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
The Nationals are implied for a stellar 5.0 runs, and Anthony Rendon has been fairly consistent over his past 10 games, averaging a +4.48 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 60% Consistency. Rendon has been smoking hot over the past 15 days, posting a massive 251-foot average distance with a 95-mph exit velocity and 43% hard-hit rate. He’s also shown exceptional power against right-handed pitchers over the past year to the tune of a .377 wOBA and .207 ISO.
Bryce Harper has also obliterated right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, boasting an elite .391 wOBA and .311 ISO. Additionally, Harper is in excellent recent form, sporting a 237-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate.
Logan Morrison may be a progression candidate. His 263-foot average batted-ball distance leads all first baseman on the slate and he has a +41 Recent batted Ball Luck (RBBL) Score on DraftKings. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball data and RBBL scores have averaged a +1.40 DraftKings Plus/Minus with an average ownership of just 4.6%. Teammates Eddie Rosario (.295), and Eduardo Escobar (.290), and Brian Dozier (.213) have all posted exceptional isolated power marks against right-handed pitchers over the past year. Overall, it’s an excellent spot for the Twins, who own a slate-high implied run total of 5.3.
Mark Trumbo and the Orioles have a favorable 4.8 implied run total against the Twins. He is in a similar boat as Morrison: Trumbo has a 257-foot average distance, along with a 95-mph exit velocity and massive 54% hard-hit rate. Trumbo’s +48-foot distance differential leads all first baseman on the main slate. Hitters with comparable 15-day/12-month distance differentials have historically averaged a +1.44 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
The Mariners are implied for just 4.3 runs against Jaime Barria, but he’s allowed a decent amount of hard contact over his past two starts (217-foot average distance, 92-mph exit velocity and 40% hard-hit rate). Nelson Cruz possesses exceptional power against righties over the past 12 months (.389 wOBA, .289 ISO). He’s also been crushing the ball over his past 11 games, posting a 251-foot average distance and 50% hard-hit rate, marks which exceed his 12-month averages by 21 feet and 6 percentage points.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Justin Verlander
Photo credit: Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports
