The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a split-slate: There’s a three-game early slate at 1:05 p.m. ET and a six-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
Even though only 18 teams are in action, there are still plenty of studs to choose from. Four pitchers have salaries of at least $10,000 on DraftKings:
- Justin Verlander (R) $12,400, HOU vs SEA
- Corey Kluber (R) $10,900, CLE vs MIN
- James Paxton (L) $10,600, SEA @ HOU
- Rick Porcello (R) $10,000, BOS @ TOR
Verlander is the priciest option on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and there’s a lot to like about him vs. the Seattle Mariners. He leads all pitchers with an opponent implied total of 3.1 runs and is also a sizable -161 favorite. His K Prediction of 7.5 ranks second on the main slate.
Verlander also enters today’s contest in excellent recent Statcast form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average batted-ball distance of 199 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 27%, all three of which represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. His strong differentials are a big part of the reason he leads all pitchers with eight Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Paxton is opposing Verlander, and his matchup vs. the Astros is intriguing. They have the third-best wOBA and second-best wRC+ vs southpaws this season, but their lineup is a lot less imposing with both Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa on the disabled list. Their projected lineup has averaged a much more reasonable .314 wOBA vs. lefties over the past 12 months, which is lower than the Mariners’ splits-adjusted wOBA against Verlander.
Paxton also has elite strikeout upside after posting a dominant K/9 of 11.48 through his first 22 starts, and his K Prediction of 8.1 is tops among all pitchers. He’s been extremely effective when batters have managed to make contact recently, limiting his past two opponents to a hard-hit rate of just 16%. Paxton’s Vegas data makes him risky for cash games, but he’s an elite option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Kluber headlines the early slate and is coming off a complete game shutout. That he accomplished the feat against the Angels is even more impressive: They’ve posted the fifth-best wOBA against right-handers in 2018. He has a much better matchup today vs. the Minnesota Twins, whose projected lineup has struggled to a 24.1% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Kluber’s opponent implied team total of 3.1 runs is tied with Verlander’s for the best mark of the day, while his moneyline odds of -206 rank second. Kluber has historically dominated with comparable marks in both categories, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.94 on FanDuel (per our Trends tool). He should command massive ownership.
Porcello dominated the Yankees in his last start, striking out nine while allowing just one run over nine innings, but it’s still hard to make a case for him. He trails all the other high-end pitchers in opponent implied total and K Prediction, and his recent Statcast data suggests his fantasy production has been fluky. His hard-hit rate of 44% is particularly concerning, especially since he seems unlikely to rack up nine strikeouts vs. the Blue Jays.
Values
Junior Guerra has a dream matchup vs. the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has limped to a splits-adjusted .305 wOBA and 28.9% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. Guerra has averaged a K/9 of 9.44 over the same time, and he leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 8.7. He’s also a -157 favorite, and his opponent implied total of 3.1 runs trails only Verlander’s and Kluber’s marks.
Additionally, Guerra has limited his past two opponents to an average distance of just 195 feet, which represents a differential of -22 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions, Vegas data and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.62. Guerra is affordable at just $7,600 on DraftKings, so pairing him with Kluber is viable.
Coors Field is available on the main slate, which places an increased importance on punt plays at pitcher. Two players who fit the description are Andrew Suarez and Ivan Nova, who both benefit from a Park Factor of 93 at AT&T Park in San Francisco. Suarez has slightly better Vegas data — he’s a -132 favorite and has an opponent implied team total of 3.8 runs — but Nova enters the game in better recent form. Also, the projected Giants lineup contains just three left-handed batters, two of whom are batting sixth and seventh, and Nova has fared much better against righties than lefties in 2018. He has some appeal for GPPs as a potentially contrarian option.
Fastballs
J.A. Happ: He was solid in his first outing as a member of the Yankees and is a massive -211 favorite vs. the Texas Rangers. He also has more strikeout upside than usual against the Rangers, evidenced by a K Prediction of 6.1.
Gio Gonzalez: He’s been awful over his past 10 starts, posting an average Plus/Minus of -8.04 on DraftKings, but this could be an intriguing spot to buy low on him. He’s been priced down to $6,200 on DraftKings, which represents a decrease of $4,900 since the start of the season.
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Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Atlanta Braves.
- 1. Ronald Acuna (R)
- 2. Ozzie Albies (S)
- 3. Freddie Freeman (L)
- 4. Nick Markakis (L)
- 5. Adam Duvall (R)
Total Salary: $21,900
None of the teams on the early slate present much value on DraftKings — the Nationals’ Team Value Rating of +60 ranks first — so the Braves could be an intriguing option despite having an implied team total of just 4.2 runs. They will likely have modest ownership, which is more important that usual given that there’s only three games to choose from. They’re facing Gonzalez, and the Braves have fared much better this season against left-handers than right-handers. Three of the five stacked batters are either right-handed or switch hitters, while the two lefties in Freeman and Markakis have actually posted better marks in both wOBA and ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months.
Duvall in particular stands out given his excellent batted-ball profile over the past 15 days. He’s absolutely crushed the baseball, resulting in an average distance of 258 feet, exit velocity of 93 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 40%. He’s affordable across the industry, especially FanDuel, where his $2,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- 1. Brian Dozier (R)
- 2. Manny Machado (R)
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 6. Chris Taylor (R)
Total Salary: $16,400
The Dodgers are at Coors Field, resulting in a gaudy implied team total of 5.7 runs vs. Rockies left-hander Tyler Anderson. All four of the stacked batters are on the positive side of their batting splits, and Dozier, Turner and Machado in particular have crushed left-handers over the past year. It’s worth noting that Anderson has posted some weird splits in 2018 — he’s fared significantly better against right-handed batters than left-handed batters — but his career marks suggest that could just be the result of a small sample.
Other Batters
Curtis Granderson is expected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Blue Jays and looks like a prime progression candidate. He’s posted strong Statcast marks over his past eight games, resulting in positive differentials in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate, but he has averaged a negative Plus/Minus over that time. The result is a Recent Batted Ball Luck of +78 on DraftKings, which is one of the top marks among batters. Perhaps he can break out against Porcello, who has allowed 10 home runs to left-handed batters in just 63.2 innings this season.
Jonathan Villar is another leadoff batter with solid recent Statcast marks, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +49 feet and hard-hit differential of +16 percentage points. Leadoff hitters with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.68 on DraftKings, where Villar is priced at just $3,500. He’s also a threat to swipe a bag if he gets on base, evidenced by his average of .122 steals per game over the past 12 months.
The Rockies will likely command lower ownership than the Dodgers, given their smaller implied team total, which makes them intriguing on FanDuel. Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon both have Bargain Ratings of at least 95%, and batters with comparable Bargain Ratings and lineup spots have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.29 when playing at Coors.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: James Paxton
Photo credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
