The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a split slate. DraftKings has five-game early and late slates at 12:35 p.m. ET and 7:07 p.m. ET. FanDuel has identical start times but does not include the Phillies-Cubs game in the early slate.
Pitchers
Studs
There are three DraftKings pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
Gerrit Cole stands out as the clear top option of the group, and he happens to be the only pitcher priced above $8,100 on the main slate. He will likely be extremely chalky, but he’s been an absolute monster on DraftKings this season:
The matchup against the Rangers isn’t anything special, but Vegas is a believer in Cole, as Texas is implied for only 3.9 runs, and Houston is a -180 moneyline favorite. Overall, he’s in a reasonable spot even on the road: He will take on a projected Rangers lineup that has a slate-high splits-adjusted 25.5% strikeout rate, which would be middling on a larger slate but here gives him the day’s highest K Prediction at 7.8. Over the last two seasons, Cole has actually offered considerably more value on the road than at home (per our Trends tool):
Jose Berrios checks in as the largest favorite on the early slate (-205), and he’s at home against a White Sox team implied for a bottom-two 3.7 runs. Berrios has historically been much better at home over the past two seasons, averaging a +5.9 Plus/Minus and 60% Consistency compared to -2.8 and 47% on the road. Aside from his slate-best 6.5 K Prediction, Berrios has arguably the best matchup of any player today: The projected White Sox lineup has a slate-high 29.5% strikeout rate and below-average .297 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months.
Miles Mikolas has great Vegas data on the early slate, as the Cardinals have -196 moneyline odds against a Marlins team implied for a slate-low 3.5 runs. Even so, Mikolas doesn’t have high strikeout upside. His 6.75 SO/9 over the past 12 months is the lowest mark on the slate, and his K Prediction of 5.4 is mediocre for his high-end salary. If rostered, he offers much more value on FanDuel with his 95% Bargain Rating, and historically pitchers with similar Vegas data, K Predictions and salaries have been reliable options:
Values
Jaime Garcia and his 1.68 WHIP wouldn’t normally inspire a ton of confidence, but he has a solid matchup against the Orioles, who sport a 25.1% strikeout rate and pathetic .281 wOBA against left-handed pitching over the past 12 months. The pitching options are thin on the main slate, and the Blue Jays are -146 moneyline favorites, so rostering Garcia could make sense at just $6,600 on DraftKings. He has a slate-low 29% fly-ball rate over his last two starts.
The Dodgers absolutely smash right-handed pitching, but Jameson Taillon is intriguing on the early slate with immaculate Statcast data, including a 162-foot batted-ball distance, 86-mph exit velocity, and 18% fly-ball rate. He carries a ton of risk due to his matchup against the Dodgers, who own a low 20.5% strikeout rate against righties over the last year, but his 6.4 K Prediction is top-three overall today.
Fastballs
Paul Blackburn: His poor 3.49 SO.9 is likely devastating to his upside (2.5 K Prediction), but he’s only $4,000 on DraftKings with a 90% Bargain Rating and is a punt option. The Athletics are -165 moneyline favorites against a terrible Royals team implied for a slate-low 3.7 runs. Pitchers with comparably terrible K predictions but similar salaries and Vegas data are rare, but that small sample of pitchers owns a 60.0% Consistency Rating on DraftKings.
Mike Leake: His upside is relatively low (4.6 K Prediction), but it’s a tough pitcher slate, and he can go deep into games. His 88-mph exit velocity is also the lowest on the main slate. His matchup isn’t especially exploitable, as the projected Rays lineup has a .335 wOBA against righties over the past year and a middling 4.0-run implied total, but at least he’s at a fantastic venue for pitchers at Tropicana Field, where Leak has a slate-high 86 Park Factor.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Blue Jays, who are implied for 5.3 runs and boast a slate-best Team Value Rating of 92:
Teoscar Hernandez and Justin Smoak will likely anchor Toronto stacks but No. 5 hitter Kendrys Morales is also intriguing. He’s on the wrong side of his splits with a .273 wOBA and .160 ISO against righties over the past year, but his $2,300 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%, and his recent Statcast Data is immaculate. With a recent 251-foot batted-ball distance, 98-mph exit velocity, and 55% hard-hit rate, he could be due for some progression with his +68 Recent Batted Ball Luck.
The top five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Red Sox, who have a slate-high implied total of 5.4 runs and top-two Team Value Rating of 79:
They have a decent matchup against struggling Tigers pitcher Matt Boyd, who has gotten himself into trouble with his recent batted-ball distance of 244 feet and fly-ball rate of 55%.
For the Sox, Mitch Moreland boasts impressive exit velocity and hard-hit differentials of 3 mph and 9%. J.D. Martinez is on the positive side of his splits with a .461 wOBA against left-handed pitching over the past year, and he has a 50% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Historically, hitters with similar lineup spots, implied run totals, hitting splits, and batted-ball metrics have averaged a +1.14 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 50% Consistency Rating.
Other Batters
On the early slate, there are two teams with implied run totals of at least 5.1. One of those is the Twins (5.4). Miguel Sano and Eduardo Escobar have recent Statcast data that is out of this world:
They also have a sublime matchup against White Sox pitcher James Shields, who owns an atrocious 1.42 WHIP and 1.62 HR/9 over the past year.
Speaking of favorable matchups: The Mariners could abuse Rays pitcher Ryne Stanek today, as he has primarily been a relief pitcher for the team. His 2.79 HR/9 is by far the day’s worst mark, and the player most likely to take advantage of him is Nelson Cruz, who has performed well against righties over the past year with a .368 wOBA and .259 ISO and is in good recent form with a 215-foot batted-ball distance and 92-mph exit velocity over the past 15 days.
In an above-average matchup against Royals pitcher Jason Hammel (who has a 1.42 WHIP and 1.19 HR/9), Kris Davis (projected to bat cleanup) has arguably the best Statcast data on the main slate. Over the past 15 days, he’s provided the Athletics with an unreal batted-ball distance of 268 feet, exit velocity of 97 mph, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 60% each. Matt Olson will follow Davis in the order and has comparable Statcast data in addition to fantastic splits with a .415 wOBA and .354 ISO over the past year.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Gerrit Cole
Photo credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
