The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a split-slate: There’s a two-game FanDuel and three-game DraftKings early slate at 1:05 p.m. ET and a seven-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today features two of the best pitchers in baseball:
Max Scherzer headlines today’s slate and is arguably in one of the best spots we’ve seen for a pitcher all season. He’s taking on the anemic Baltimore Orioles, whose projected lineup has posted a .282 wOBA and 32.1% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Unsurprisingly, Scherzer has elite Vegas data, leading all pitchers with an opponent implied total of 2.6 runs and moneyline odds of -287.
What really pushes Scherzer over the top is his combination of elite Vegas data and unreal peripheral statistics. He’s in awesome recent form, limiting his past two opponents to an average batted-ball distance of 188 feet, exit velocity of 83 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 21%. All three of those marks represent significant decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. Scherzer also has a substantial amount of strikeout upside, leading all of today’s pitchers with a K Prediction of 11.0. Add it all up, and comparable pitchers have historically crushed (per the Trends tool):
The only pitchers who have previously matched this trend are Scherzer (three times), Chris Sale (three times), Clayton Kershaw (once), Stephen Strasburg (once), and the late Jose Fernandez (once), which goes to show just how rare it is to check all these boxes on a given slate.
The only question with Scherzer is if he’s worthy of his eye-popping $14,500 salary on DraftKings. Comparably priced pitchers have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +3.64, but Scherzer has personally averaged a Plus/Minus of -0.90 when priced above $14,000. Still, he has been reliable despite the poor aggregate total, owning a Consistency Rating of 69.2% over 13 such starts. He should command massive ownership on the main slate.
Luis Severino hasn’t been as good as Scherzer but has still put together an impressive season. He’s posted a 2.09 ERA and 10.73 K/9 through his first 15 starts and trails only Justin Verlander in WAR among AL starters.
He has a difficult matchup against the Seattle Mariners, who have the eighth-highest wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. Vegas is still showing Severino a lot of respect with his opponent implied total of 3.1 runs and moneyline odds of -196, which trail only Scherzer’s marks. He owns a 9.4 K Prediction and a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -23 feet, so it’s hard to find flaws with Severino.
The only complication is his price tag. He shares the early slate with the Coors Field game, so DFS players will likely have to choose between the two.
Values
Madison Bumgarner is still searching for the form that made him an elite starter in the past, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his first three starts this season. He’s struggled to miss bats, posting a K/9 of just 4.67, which is a big reason he’s stumbled to a 5.17 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). His recent Statcast data is far from impressive, particularly his hard-hit rate of 45%.
Perhaps he can get right against the San Diego Padres. They have an implied total of just 3.4 runs, and their projected lineup has posted a .294 wOBA and 27.2% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months. He leads all pitchers with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Chad Kuhl was slated to start on Wednesday, but the Brewers-Pirates game was rained out. That could work in his favor, as he’ll have a nice matchup today with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Their projected lineup has mustered a wOBA of just .295 and a strikeout rate of 29.7% against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Kuhl has limited his past two opponents to an average distance of just 182 feet, which represents a decrease of -30 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable distance differentials have been nice fantasy options:
He’s priced at just $6,700 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Kyle Gibson could be an intriguing early-slate option for those looking to avoid Severino. His $5,900 DraftKings salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he possesses a nice combination of strikeout upside and recent Statcast data. He owns a K Prediction of 6.9 and has posted a distance differential of -14 feet over his past two starts, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have posted an average Plus/Minus of +1.64.
Fastballs
James Paxton: He’s a heavy underdog facing Severino and the Yankees but possesses excellent strikeout upside. The projected Yankees lineup has struck out in 25.2% of at-bats against left-handers over the past year, giving Paxton a K Prediction of 8.9. He’s also priced at just $8,300 on DraftKings, which represents a decrease of $3,600 over the past month.
Tyler Skaggs: He’s been excellent over his past three starts, averaging a Plus/Minus of +20.84 on FanDuel. His recent Statcast data reflects that dominance, as he’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 191 feet and hard-hit rate of just 28%. He owns respectable marks in both opponent implied run total (3.4) and moneyline odds (-152) against the Toronto Blue Jays, and pitching in Los Angeles rewards him with a Park Factor of 82.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the New York Mets:
The top stack unsurprisingly belongs to a Coors team, but the Mets’ implied total of 5.1 runs trails the Rockies’ by almost a full run (6.0), so they will likely have the lower ownership of the two teams. They Mets face Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland, who has posted a better ERA at Coors than on the road throughout his career, but he’s been exploited over his past two outings with an average distance of 223 feet, exit velocity of 92 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 39%.
The Mets have performed awfully against left-handers this season, but they enter today’s contest in solid recent form. One batter who stands out is Wilmer Flores, who has posted 15-day/12-month distance and hard-hit differentials of +45 feet and +22 percentage points. He’s also one of the few Mets with success against lefties over the past year, evidenced by a .232 ISO.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
The Cubs lead the main slate with an implied total of 5.3 runs and are playing at an extreme hitter’s ballpark in Cincinnati. They also get the benefit of taking on Matt Harvey, who has compiled a disastrous 1.68 WHIP and 1.92 HR/9 over the past 12 months. The Cubs have the power to take advantage of this matchup at Great American Ballpark, as Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber all have ISOs of at least .212 against righties over the past year.
Other Batters
D.J. LeMahieu is on the positive side of his batting splits against Mets left-hander Steven Matz, and he’s expected to occupy the key leadoff spot in the Rockies lineup. He owns a recent average distance of 224 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 46%, all of which represent increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Eric Thames has a difficult matchup against Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez but is in elite recent form with Statcast marks of a 294-foot distance, 100-mph exit velocity, and 54% hard hit rate over his past five games. He’s a strong value on FanDuel, where his $3,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
The A’s have one of the top matchups of the day against White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito, who has an abysmal 7.19 ERA to start the season. They have an implied total of 5.2 runs, which puts the majority of their batters in play, but Matt Joyce stands out assuming he’s healthy enough to return to the lineup. If active he will likely occupy the leadoff spot and has slugged a .347 wOBA and .245 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. He’s priced at the dead minimum on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Good luck, and make sure you check out The Action Network for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Max Scherzer
Photo credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
