The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a nine-game main slate that begins on DraftKings and FanDuel at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
The high-end pitching options are underwhelming. Just two pitchers cost $10,000 or more on DraftKings:
Cole Hamels has been hit or miss this season with a 63% Consistency Rating, but he’s strung together some serviceable outings of late, allowing two or fewer earned runs in his past four starts. Hamels also has excellent recent batted-ball data, sporting an average distance of 199 feet, exit velocity of 88 mph, and hard-hit rate of 28%. Overall, he has one of the better matchups on the slate against a projected White Sox lineup that boasts a 30.6% strikeout rate over the past 12 months against left-handed pitchers. Further, Hamels owns a respectable 6.8 K Prediction, and the Rangers are slight favorites (-124 moneyline). That said, Hamels’ opponent implied total of 4.3 runs is high for a $10,800 pitcher. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have struggled to meet salary-based expectations (per our Trends tool):
Tyler Skaggs and the Angels check in as one of the larger favorites on the slate (-152 moneyline odds). Further, the Rays are implied for a slate-low 3.4 runs, but Skaggs’ 5.6 K Prediction leaves much to be desired, and his recent batted-ball data (213-foot average distance, 92-mph exit velocity) is nothing to write home about. The projected Rays lineup has just a 23.4% strikeout against lefties over the past 12 months, and the Rays rank sixth in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against lefties this season (FanGraphs). Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have been serviceable, but when they’ve failed to hist salary-based expectations they’ve really underperformed:
Values
Luke Weaver is just $6,200 on FanDuel and leads the slate with a 7.5 K Prediction against a projected Phillies lineup that has a 25.1% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. On a slate void of elite pitchers, Weaver’s 9.90 SO/9 over the past 12 months is the second-highest mark. Weaver by far has the best recent batted-ball data on the slate with a 175-foot average distance, 85-mph exit velocity, and 21% hard-hit rate. His +86 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) suggests that he’s been incredibly unlucky of late in his fantasy production. Ultimately, Weaver is in one of the slate’s best spots, as the Phillies are implied for 3.9 runs, and the Cardinals are -145 favorites. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions, salaries, and Vegas data have historically averaged a +3.58 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Chad Kuhl gets a favorable draw against a Padres lineup with a 27.5% strikeout rate and .265 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months. Kuhl owns a serviceable 6.5 K Prediction, and he has solid Vegas data: The Pirates are -139 moneyline favorites, and the Padres are implied for a paltry 3.7 runs. The primary concern with Kuhl is his recent batted-ball data, as he has allowed a 240-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 40% hard-hit rate. Pitchers with comparable batted-ball data and Vegas data have historically struggled on FanDuel:
Marco Gonzales at just $6,600 on DraftKings is the slate’s largest favorite (-185 moneyline odds), and the opposing Tigers are implied for just 3.4 runs. Overall, it’s a decent spot for Gonzales: The projected Tigers lineup has a low 23.9% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months, but it also has a pitiful .294 wOBA in that same time. Although Gonzalez has a weak 4.9 Prediction, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have been decent values on DraftKings:
Fastballs
Chris Archer: Has the highest SO/9 over the past 12 months (10.83) among pitchers tonight and owns the second-highest K Prediction on the slate (6.9) along with a 93% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Still, Archer is nothing more than a GPP play, as the Rays are +140 underdogs against the Angels.
Jeff Samardzija: Has been awful of late, but his +36 RBBL suggests that he’s been unlucky. Overall, it’s a favorable spot for Samardzija, as the Giants are -143 moneyline favorites against a Rockies team implied for 3.7 runs.
David Price: Is a -153 moneyline favorite, sporting a K Prediction of 6.0 against the Orioles. Price also has a positive RBBL (+19) and decent recent batted-ball data with an 89-mph exit velocity and 28% hard-hit rate. Pitchers with comparable RBBL Scores, Vegas data, and K Predictions have historically averaged a +2.72 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Blue Jays, who are implied for 5.0 runs and boast a slate-best Team Value Rating of 84:
Joe Holka covers Justin Smoak in today’s Three Key MLB Players. It’s a tremendous spot for the whole Jays stack, as A’s pitcher Andrew Triggs owns a woeful 1.65 WHIP and 2.28 HR/9, including a .367 wOBA and .219 isolated power (ISO) over the past 12 months. Further, Triggs has allowed an absurd 98-mph exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate over his past two games. Each stacked hitter boasts elite wOBA and ISO numbers against righties over the past 12 months:
The top five-man DraftKings stack in the Recent Batted Ball Model belongs to the Cardinals, who are implied for 4.6 runs:
Tommy Pham enters this game with excellent batted-ball data, sporting a ridiculous 97-mph exit velocity and 71% hard-hit rate, which are +5 mph and +34 percentage points higher than his 12-month averages. Hitters with comparable batted-ball data have historically averaged a +1.38 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Paul DeJong owns a .365 wOBA and .234 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, and he boasts some of the best recent batted-ball data on the slate with a 254-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity, and 53% hard-hit rate. Marcell Ozuna is sporting an RBBL of +55 and could be due for some progression. Hitters with comparable RBBLs and batted-ball data have historically averaged a +1.18 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
Playing in the same game and available at the same price on DraftKings, Matt Olson is an interesting pivot off of Smoak. Olson owns an elite .422 wOBA and .360 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. His .138 wOBA and .204 ISO differentials are among the highest on the slate. Further, Olson has been obliterating the baseball as evidenced by his 246-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 51% hard-hit rate.
Ozzie Albies has some GPP appeal against Jon Lester, who is allowing a recent average distance of 229 feet and exit velocity of 91 mph. Albies has crushed lefties over the past 12 months with a .450 wOBA and .302 ISO. The Braves have an implied total of just 4.2 runs, but Albies has a solid 70% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Kyle Seager is averaging a +3.90 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his past 10 games. Tigers pitcher Matt Boyd has been giving up a fair amount of hard contact of late, allowing a recent average distance of 213 feet, exit velocity of 90 mph, and a hard-hit rate of 38%. Meanwhile, Seager enters this game sporting a recent average distance of 231 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and hard-hit rate of 45%. Historically, hitters with comparable batted ball data and RBBLs (+36) have averaged a +1.82 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Max Moroff fits the mold of a cheap salary-saving leadoff hitter on FanDuel ($2,000 and 93% Bargain Rating). The switch-hitting shortstop owns a .322 wOBA and .184 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. Hitters with comparable Bargain Ratings in the leadoff spot have historically averaged a +1.35 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 47% Consistency Rating.
Joey Gallo is firmly in play against White Sox pitcher James Shields. Gallo sports an elite .355 wOBA and .326 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Joe Holka discusses Gallo in today’s Three Key MLB Players.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Marco Gonzales
Photo credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
