The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday offers a nine-game main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings, there are four pitchers priced at $10,000 or higher:
J.A. Happ has been playing well this season, averaging a +6.31 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 86% Consistency. With the Blue Jays implied for 5.1 runs, Happ checks in as a -155 moneyline favorite. That said, he’s got a tough task taking on a projected Mariners lineup that doesn’t strike out often (21.8% strikeout rate over the past 12 months against lefties), and they own a .335 weighted on-base average (wOBA). Further, they’re sporting the 10th-best weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against lefties this season (FanGraphs). Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions (5.8), and Vegas data have consistently failed to meet salary-based expectations on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
Walker Buehler is sporting the most favorable Vegas data on the slate, as the Dodgers are -165 favorites and the Reds are implied for just 3.3 runs. Buehler has been excellent in his three starts this season, averaging a +8.59 DraftKing Plus/Minus with 100% Consistency. Further, over the past 12 months, he is sporting a solid 1.06 WHIP and a stellar 10.66 SO/9. The Reds rank 25th in wRC+ against righties this season, but the main downside is they don’t strike out often, evidenced by their 20.4% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. Historically, pitchers with comparable strikeout metrics featured in games with similar Vegas data have historically crushed — but at very high ownership:
Buehler has also drawn a ton of soft contact over his past two starts with a 159-foot average distance, 84-mph exit velocity, and 20% hard-hit rate.
Miles Mikolas doesn’t have a ton of strikeout upside (7.09 SO/9 and 6.4 K Prediction), but he’s a grinder, going at least seven innings in his past four starts while allowing two or fewer runs in all of them. Mikolas’ recent batted ball data is among the best on the slate with a 168-foot average distance and 88-mph exit velocity. Further, Mikolas has a favorable matchup against a Padres team whose projected lineup boasts a 30.6% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months — along with ranking 26th in wRC+ against righties this season. Overall, it’s a good spot for him as the Cardinals check in as -131 moneyline favorites and the Padres are implied for 3.5 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, Vegas data, and K Predictions have fared well on DraftKings:
Since joining the Diamondbacks, Zack Greinke has historically performed well as a home favorite, averaging a +1.91 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 64.3% Consistency. He boasts the second-highest K Prediction on the slate (7.4), and he checks in as a decent -131 moneyline favorite as the Nationals are implied for 3.8 runs. However, the primary concern with Greinke tonight is the Nationals rank fifth in wRC+ against righties this season, and Greinke has some worrisome recent batted ball data with a 226-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity, and 53% hard-hit rate.
Values
Garrett Richards is reasonably priced on both sites. He’s been solid over the past month, averaging a +11.45 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 78% Consistency. Overall, Richards owns a healthy 6.9 K Prediction, and the Angels are -151 moneyline favorites against a Twins team that is implied for just 3.4 runs. Further, Richards owns excellent recent batted ball data, sporting a 181-foot average distance. It also doesn’t hurt he’ll be at home in a pitcher-friendly venue where Richards gets a Park Factor of 83. Historically, pitchers with comparable Park Factors, pitching metrics, and Vegas data have been excellent investments:
CC Sabathia could be a potential punt option on DraftKings, where he owns a 59% Bargain Rating. He boasts favorable recent batted ball data, sporting a 189-foot average distance, 87-mph exit velocity, and 19% hard-hit rate. Further, the Yankees check in as -140 moneyline favorites. That said, the Red Sox do have an implied run total of 4.4 runs, and their projected lineup has hit lefties well over the past 12 months with a 21.2% strikeout rate and .343 wOBA.
Fastballs
Michael Foltynewicz owns a 97% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and is set to take on an underwhelming Marlins team whose projected lineup owns a 28.1% strikeout rate over the past 12 months against righties. Consequently, Foltynewicz boasts a solid 7.0 K Prediction. The Braves are slight -110 moneyline favorites as the Marlins are implied for just 3.7 runs. That said, Folty has worrisome recent batted ball data with a 94-mph exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate.
Caleb Smith, who is pitching in the same game as Foltynewicz, is sporting more favorable recent batted ball data with a 190-foot average distance and 89-mph exit velocity. He also boasts a slate-best 8.6 K Prediction. Smith was covered at length in today’s Three Key Players piece.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Brewers, who are implied for 5.2 runs:
Christian Yelich and Domingo Santana will both be on the positive side of their wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits, and they each boast a 76% Bargain Rating on FanDuel:
Aside from playing at Coors Field, which has historically yielded a +1.82 FanDuel Plus/Minus for hitters, they’re each drawing a fair amount hard contact, sporting 91-mph exit velocities and 43-45% hard-hit rates. Hitters in Coors Field with comparable batted ball data hitting in similar lineup spots have historically averaged a +2.09 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 49.1% Consistency. Overall, it’s an excellent spot for the Brewers as Rockies starter German Marquez is sporting some awful recent batted ball data with a 221-foot average distance and 92-mph exit velocity.
The top (non-Coors) five-man stack on DraftKings in the Recent Batted Ball Model belongs to the Royals, who are implied for 5.1 runs. They also boast the second-best Team Value Rating (82) on the slate:
Chris Tillman owns some of the worst recent batted ball data on this slate, boasting a 233-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 44% hard-hit rate. Hitters featured in games with similar implied run totals that are squaring off against pitchers with comparable batted ball data have historically averaged a +1.33 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Lucas Duda was covered in today’s Three Key Players piece, so I’ll move elsewhere. Mike Moustakas will be on the positive side of his splits, as he’s averaged a .364 wOBA and .280 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Further, Moustakas owns a hard-hit differential of +10%. Hitters with comparable metrics featured in games with similar implied run totals have historically averaged a +1.04 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Salvador Perez is sporting some of the best recent batted ball data among catchers on the main slate with a 228-foot average distance, 92-mph exit velocity, and 47% hard-hit rate. The Royals are in a prime spot against Tillman.
Other Batters
Justin Bour could be an intriguing tournament play (2-4% projected ownership) against Foltynewicz, who has allowed a 94-mph exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate over his past two starts. Bour owns an elite .413 wOBA and .289 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Further, his recent batted ball data is outstanding with a 249-foot average distance, 92-mph exit velocity, and 50% hard-hit rate. On top of that, his +41 Recent Batted Ball Luck Score (RBBL) suggests he’s been incredibly unlucky of late. Historically, hitters with comparable data have averaged a massive +4.28 FanDuel Plus/Minus. However, their 42% Consistency Rating makes them boom-or-bust.
Nolan Arenado will be on the negative side of his wOBA and ISO splits, but he still owns a .379 wOBA and .255 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Jhoulys Chacin has atrocious recent batted ball data with a 235-foot average distance and 92-mph exit velocity — a combination that may not go well in Coors Field. Meanwhile, Arenado is sporting a 242-foot average distance with an absurd 96-mph exit velocity. Teammate Trevor Story has almost identical batted ball data, along with a 51% hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable batted ball data in Coors have historically averaged a +2.72 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Adam Jones has a date with Ian Kennedy, who has allowed a .351 wOBA and .242 ISO to right-handed hitters over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, Jones has typically hit righties well, as he owns a .335 wOBA and .206 ISO against them over the past 12 months. It’s an excellent spot for Jones, as he boasts a 95-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. The Orioles are implied for a stellar 5.3 runs against Kennedy.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Justin Bour
Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
