The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday’s slate features a five-game early slate on DraftKings and FanDuel at 12:35 p.m. ET along with a four-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, two different top-priced pitching options cost $9,500 or more on the early slate and $9,700 or more on the main slate:
Chris Sale is the clear top option on the main slate, where he checks in as the slate’s largest favorite (-199 moneyline odds). Even at Sale’s price tag, he’s averaging a +5.33 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his past five starts with 60% Consistency. While the projected Blue Jays lineup hasn’t struck out often against left-handed pitching over the past 12 months (23.2% K/9), it owns a mediocre .283 weighted on-base average (wOBA). Overall, Sale’s 13.04 K/9 over the past year leads the slate by nearly 1.5 strikeouts. Consequently, Sale boasts a slate-high 9.7 K Prediction against a Jays team that is implied for just 3.3 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable metrics and salaries have been amazingly consistent (per our Trends tool):
Noah Syndergaard has a tough matchup against a Cardinals team whose projected lineup has a strikeout rate of just 23.7% and a slate-best .349 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Syndergaard always has upside with his strikeout potential, but he’s a steep investment on the road in a difficult matchup. The Mets are slight favorites with a -107 moneyline, and the Cardinals are implied for a paltry 3.5 runs, but when Syndergaard has played in games with comparable moneyline odds he’s failed to meet salary-based expectations in 63.6% of games:
Carlos Martinez has the pleasure of pitching opposite of Syndergaard. This game is basically a pick’em as the Cardinals are sitting with a -101 moneyline. Martinez’s 8.1 K Prediction trounces Syndergaard’s 6.9 mark, as the projected Mets lineup has a high 31.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. If there’s a drawback to Martinez, it’s that he’s allowed a lot of hard contact over his past two starts with a 54% hard-hit rate, but he owns a slate-low 179-foot average distance allowed. While Syndergaard has struggled as a slight favorite, Martinez has historically done quite well with his odds:
Dylan Bundy will take the mound against a Rays team whose projected lineup has a strikeout rate of 25.4% against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Bundy’s 6.6 K Prediction leaves much to be desired, but the righty has flashed some upside this season with seven or more strikeouts in four of his five starts: Bundy has been outstanding thus far with a +14.96 Plus/Minus and a 100% Consistency Rating. He’s in a decent spot, as the Rays are implied for a mediocre 3.6 runs, and the Orioles come in as slight home favorites (-120 moneyline odds). Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions, salaries, and Vegas data have averaged 35.77 FanDuel points with a +2.21 Plus/Minus.
Values
Sean Newcomb is a better value on FanDuel, where he sports a 93% Bargain Rating. He takes on a struggling Reds team whose projected lineup has a 27.9% strikeout rate and putrid .279 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. Along with the favorable moneyline odds (-132), Newcomb has some of the best recent batted-ball data on the slate with an average distance of 196 feet, exit velocity of 87 mph, and excellent hard-hit rate of 21%.
Ivan Nova and the Pirates are -139 moneyline favorites against a Tigers team that is implied for a mediocre 3.7 runs. The Tigers have been atrocious against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months with a 25.6% strikeout rate and .263 wOBA. The main concern with Nova is his strikeout potential (6.77 K/9 and 6.3 K Prediction), and he’s allowed an exit velocity of 91 mph and hard-hit rate of 40% over his past two starts. However, his recent average distance of 193 feet is exceptional.
Jake Junis takes the mound against a White Sox team that has a 29.8% strikeout rate and lowly .283 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months. He has a decent 6.6 K Prediction, and the Royals are -156 moneyline favorites. Pitchers with comparable metrics and moneyline odds have averaged 17.23 DraftKings points per game with a +1.64 Plus/Minus. The drawback with Junis is that he has allowed a high 227-foot recent average distance with a 93-mph exit velocity over his past two starts.
Fastballs
Chris Archer has an outstanding K Prediction of 9.0 against an Orioles team whose projected lineup has a 27.4% strikeout rate over the past 12 months against righties, but the Rays are slight road dogs (+111 moneyline). Additionally, Archer’s recent batted-ball data is worrisome: He has an average distance of 223 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and hard-hit rate of 45%. If he’s not striking out batters at an amazing clip, Archer can get himself into trouble.
Jordan Montgomery and the Yankees are big favorites (-188 moneyline) against the Twins. However, he has a paltry 5.2 K Prediction, and the Twins have potential to do some damage, as they sport a .329 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves’ implied total of 4.9 runs is the second-highest mark on the early slate as they take on right-hander Homer Bailey. No. 3 hitter Freddie Freeman has crushed righties over the past 12 months with a .420 wOBA and .266 isolated power (ISO). He’s also been smashing the ball with a 238-foot recent average distance and a 95-mph exit velocity. Bailey has struggled over the past 12 months, allowing a .358 wOBA and .167 ISO.
One of the top stacks on FanDuel’s main slate in the Recent Batted Ball Player Model belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
The Royals are implied for 4.8 runs and in an excellent spot against Lucas Giolito, who has struggled this season, posting a -16.73 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his past four starts. Mike Moustakas has hit righties well over the past 12 months with a .346 wOBA and .249 ISO. Moustakas has smoked the baseball over his past 13 games with a 227-foot average distance and 93-mph exit velocity. Like Moustakas, Lucas Duda is pulverizing the baseball, sporting a 229-foot average distance and 94-mph exit velocity. Duda will also be on the positive side of his splits: He has an elite .368 wOBA and .301 ISO against righties over the past 12 months.
Other Batters
Hanley Ramirez will be on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits against right-hander Marco Estrada. Ramirez owns a .348 wOBA and .201 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, and he’s been hitting the ball well recently with an average distance of 226 feet, exit velocity of 93 mph, and a hard-hit rate of 50%. Meanwhile, Estrada has been getting smoked, allowing a recent average distance of 250 feet.
Yoan Moncada has obliterated the baseball over his past 11 games with a 242-foot recent average distance and 94-mph exit velocity. He’s also facing Junis, who has troublesome recent batted-ball data with a 227-foot average distance and 93-mph exit velocity. Moncada will also be on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits:
Chase Anderson has a 12-month 42% fly-ball rate, which could get him into trouble against Kyle Schwarber who boasts a 38% fly-ball rate over his past nine games with a 231-foot recent average distance. Schwarber also crushes righties, as he owns a .367 wOBA and .316 ISO against them over the past 12 months. The Cubs outfielder has been doing well as of late with a +6.51 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his past nine games.
Alex Avila will take on rightie Ben Lively, who has allowed a .343 wOBA and .202 ISO over the past 12 months. This will put Avila on the positive side of his splits, and he has an absurd 98-mph exit velocity over his past five games.
Matt Carpenter could be an interesting GPP play with his 75% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He has a tough matchup against Syndergaard, but Carpenter owns a .374 wOBA and .237 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Carpenter has a solid 243-foot recent average distance and 95-mph exit velocity, and his Recent Batted Ball Luck of +61 suggests that he has bee incredibly unlucky over his past 10 games. Historically, hitters with comparable metrics have averaged a +2.76 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
The Yankees are in a good spot in the early slate, as they’re implied for 5.6 runs against Kyle Gibson:
They all smash righties. Most notably, Aaron Judge has a recent average distance of 242 feet and exit velocity of 98 mph over his past 12 games. Hitters with comparable metrics and implied run totals have historically averaged a +1.86 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Didi Gregorius has hit a home run in his past three games and enters Thursday’s tilt against the Twins with a 229-foot recent average distance, 93-mph exit velocity, and 52% fly-ball rate.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Pictured above: Noah Syndergaard
Photo Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
