The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday offers a split slate that differs by site: DraftKings offers an 11-game main slate and a four-game afternoon slate, while FanDuel offers a nine-game main slate and six-game afternoon slate. The difference stems from how each site is classifying the Angels-Rangers and Diamondbacks-Rockies games.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate features four pitchers with salaries of at least $11,000 on DraftKings:
Despite the presence of some big names, none of these studs is in a great spot. Only Ervin Santana pitches on the main slate; all the rest are in the afternoon, when tournaments typically have smaller prize pools. Additionally, Chris Sale and Luis Severino are facing each other, resulting in nearly even moneyline odds for both pitchers. Both slates lack the type of slam-dunk play we normally see at pitcher.
Santana is the most expensive pitcher on the main slate by $1,500 on DraftKings, yet his moneyline odds of -149 rank fourth and his K Prediction of 5.2 ranks just eleventh. His Statcast data over his last two starts is also far from elite: 210-foot batted ball distance, 88 mile-per-hour exit velocity, 22 percent hard hit rate. His matchup against the Royals isn’t particularly good — their projected lineup has a splits-adjusted wOBA of .324 and K rate of 21.1 percent — and Santana has seen has salary rise by $1,500 over the past month. Most people will prudently pay down at pitcher on the main slate.
In the Sale-Severino matchup, Sale has the edge. The Red Sox are slight -120 favorites, and he leads Severino with a 9.1 K Prediction by a margin of +2.5 strikeouts. His K Prediction is easily the top mark today, and a K Prediction that large has historically led to fantasy success on FanDuel (per the Trends Tool):
Sale also has the edge on Severino in terms of 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials:
- Sale: -7 feet, 0 miles per hour, -5 percentage points
- Severino: +6 feet, +2 miles per hour, 0 percentage points
Sale has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on FanDuel compared to Severino’s 87 percent. Sale tops Severino in virtually every pitching category. He will likely have a high ownership rate, which Pro Subscribers can review after lineups lock using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
Mike Fiers is the largest favorite of the day with -232 moneyline odds, and he should dominate ownership. Historically, pitchers with comparable moneyline odds have been among the safest bets on DraftKings:
His K Prediction of 5.7 is mediocre, but there are no true strikeout artists on the main slate: Only three pitchers have K Predictions above 6.2. He’s also posted distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of -2 feet, -2 miles per hour, and -7 percentage points, suggesting that he’s also in solid recent form.
The two pitchers with the highest K Predictions on the DraftKings main slate pitch for teams with massive opponent implied team totals. Andrew Heaney leads the slate with a K Prediction of 7.4, and despite an opponent implied team total of 5.5 runs he’s a slight favorite with -128 odds. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and odds have returned value on DraftKings:
He also has a distance differential of -10 feet over his last two starts, and factoring that into the above trend increases the Plus/Minus to +3.02. At only $6,000, he’s a viable option in guaranteed prize pools for those looking to stack Coors Field.
Rockies pitcher German Marquez is second on the slate with a K Prediction of 6.8. His opponent implied team total of 6.3 runs is brutal, but his distance differential of -22 feet is better than Heaney’s. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and differentials have been good:
Pitchers that are also comparable in salary have posted a historical Upside Rating of 18 percent, and pitchers at Coors have a historical ownership of just 3.6 percent. Stacking the Rockies with Marquez would serve to diversify lineups, and Pro subscribers can check after lineup lock the ownership correlation between Marquez and the Rockies batters using the new DFS Contest Dashboard.
Fastballs
Matt Andriese: He’s a solid -165 favorite against the Chicago White Sox, and his Statcast data over the last 15 days is elite. He’s posted a batted ball distance of 173 feet, exit velocity of 83 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of just 10 percent — but those numbers have come over just three innings pitched. This is his first start in over three months, so Andriese will likely be on a pitch count.
Josh Tomlin: He’s making his first start since coming off the disabled list, but his moneyline odds of -185 are second on the slate. Comparable favorites have a historical Plus/Minus of +3.33 on FanDuel, and he might be worth a start on such a weak slate for pitching even if he’s not guaranteed to throw a tremendous number of pitches.
Madison Bumgarner: The stud pitcher not mentioned above, Bumgarner has a K Prediction of 7.2 and opponent implied team total of 4.2 runs. He does benefit from pitching in San Francisco, which rewards him with a slate high Park Factor of 94.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. We’ve recently added FantasyDraft tools to our suite of DFS products — check out Bryan Mears’ strategy piece for details — and FantasyDraft allows six batters in a stack. The top six-man stack on the early slate using the Bales Model belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Diamondbacks trail only the Rockies with their implied team total of 6.3 runs. Given their massive total, the stacked batters seem collectively underpriced on FantasyDraft today:
Daniel Descalso is the cheapest batter at only $6,900, and he also happens to be the batter in the best recent form. He’s posted a batted ball distance of 256 feet over his last eight games, and batters with comparable distances at Coors have a historical Plus/Minus of +3.69 on FantasyDraft.
On the afternoon slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Seattle Mariners:
The Mariners’ implied team total of 5.1 runs is the top mark on the afternoon slate, and they’re set to face Oakland right-hander Daniel Gossett, who has allowed an average of 1.69 home runs per nine innings over the past 12 months, which is the worst mark among afternoon pitchers. The stacked batters should enjoy facing a right-handed pitcher: All of them have fared well against them over the past 12 months:
Yonder Alonso has a massive 11 Pro Trends in this matchup and impressive distance and hard hit differentials of +12 feet and +14 percentage points over his last 11 games.
Batters
Mark Reynolds continues to crush the ball for the Rockies, yet DraftKings users continue to show him no love. Here is his ownership from Saturday compared to the rates for his teammates:
Some sharp ownership buoyed his average a bit, but he still ranked only fifth among the eight Rockies batters. He leads today’s slate with 12 Pro Trends and has an average distance of 252 feet over his last 10 games. Batters with comparable marks in both categories have a historical Plus/Minus of +3.61.
Miguel Montero has a ridiculous batted ball distance of 296 feet over his last eight games, but that hasn’t resulted in a lot of fantasy production. He’s posted a Recent Batted Ball Luck of +54 on FanDuel, and batters with comparable distances and Recent BBLs have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.74. At only $2,500, he’s an option for those looking to save at catcher.
Manny Machado has been among the best hitters in baseball recently:
He’s taking on Blue Jays left-hander Brett Anderson, who has an awful past-year WHIP of 1.95. Machado meanwhile has crushed lefties with a .360 wOBA and .226 ISO over the last 12 months. He should be licking his chops in this matchup.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
