The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate: There’s an eight-game early slate starting at 1:07 pm ET and a six-game afternoon slate starting at 4:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate features four of the best pitchers in baseball. Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom headline the early slate, while Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber headline the main slate:
Scherzer and deGrom are facing each other today, which limits the Vegas data for both. Still, Scherzer leads the early slate with an implied team total of 3.1 runs and moneyline odds of -157. His K Prediction of 9.6 is also first on the slate by a wide margin, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions have historically been good values on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
He’s also averaged a massive 116 pitches over his last two starts, and a pitch count that large has historically resulted in a Plus/Minus of +1.43. He should be the chalk on the early slate.
deGrom is an underdog in this matchup, owning moneyline odds of +145, but he has the edge in recent Statcast data. deGrom has a distance differential of -14 feet and hard hit differential of -22 percentage points over his last two starts, and pitchers with comparable differentials have historically returned value:
His $11,200 salary on DraftKings isn’t cheap, but it does represent a much better value than the other elite starters. His Bargain Rating of 23 percent blows away Scherzer’s Bargain Rating of two percent.
The more interesting pitching dilemma is between Kershaw and Kluber on the afternoon slate. As usual, Kershaw’s Vegas data in today’s start is absolutely elite. He leads the slate in both opponent implied team total (2.6 runs) and moneyline odds (-289), and pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have historically smashed on FanDuel:
Kershaw has fit this trend in 17 previous instances, and he has outscored his historical comps with an average Plus/Minus of +8.94. The big concern with Kershaw is that he hasn’t been the same pitcher since coming off the disabled list. He has an average Plus/Minus of -9.28 over his last three starts on FanDuel and has allowed a distance differential of +9 feet over his last two.
Kluber, on the other hand, as been lights out over his last 10 starts:
His Vegas data is not as impressive as Kershaw’s, but it’s still excellent: He owns a 3.1 opponent implied team total and -201 moneyline odds. He does lead Kershaw in two key areas. The first is his K Prediction of 8.9, which is the top mark among all pitchers on the afternoon slate. The second is his recent Statcast data: He’s allowed a batted ball distance of 169 feet over his last two starts, which represents a differential of -31 feet compared to his 12-month average. There have been only eight previous instances of pitchers with comparable K Predictions, recent distance differentials, and moneyline odds, and those pitchers have historically performed very well:
Kluber leads the slate with nine Pro Trends and actually rates higher than Kershaw on both FanDuel and DraftKings using the Bales Model. The ownership dynamic between Kluber and Kershaw is going to be a key factor on today’s slate and can be reviewed using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
There aren’t many value pitchers that can match the upside of the studs today, but Chris Archer is one of them; his 12-month K/9 of 11.33 trails just Scherzer’s mark on the early slate, as does his K Prediction of 8.5. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions have a historical Plus/Minus of +3.03 on DraftKings.
In addition to his strikeout prowess, Archer’s Statcast data from his two most recent starts is impressive. He’s posted a distance differential of -18 feet, and pitchers with comparable distance differentials and K Predictions have historically been excellent:
He’s only a -112 favorite – which limits his appeal for cash games – but he offers plenty of upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Jaime Garcia is coming off one of his best starts of the season, but he remains affordable at just $7,200 on DraftKings. His recent Statcast data is great: He’s posted a 160-foot average distance, 89 MPH exit velocity, 69 percent ground ball rate, and 30 percent hard hit rate. The distance is particularly impressive and represents a differential of -35 feet compared to his 12-month average. Pitchers with comparable distance differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.64 on DraftKings.
Fastballs
Jose Quintana: He has an excellent matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, whose projected lineup has a splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 29.8 percent against left-handers over the past 12 months. His K Prediction of 7.8 trails only Scherzer’s and deGrom’s marks, and his moneyline odds of -131 are the third-highest on the early slate. He also has a distance differential of -20 feet over his last two starts, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions, distance differentials, and moneyline odds have a historical Plus/Minus of +3.14 on DraftKings.
Doug Fister: He gets the Cincinnati Reds, whose projected lineup has the highest splits-adjusted strikeout rate on the slate. His K Prediction of 7.0 is tied for sixth on the slate, and he’s another pitcher in good recent form with a distance differential of -12 feet over his last two starts.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. FantasyDraft allows you to roster up to six batters from the same team, and the top-rated six-man stack on the early slate (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds’ implied team total of 4.7 runs ranks just sixth on the early slate. They’re taking on the Red Sox, who are implied for a slate-high 5.4 runs and should be popular in tournaments. Still, there’s plenty of reason for optimism for the Reds. Fister has allowed a total of 11 earned runs over his last two starts, and facing a right-handed pitcher puts most of the stacked batters on the positive side of their batting splits:
These batters are also collectively underpriced on FantasyDraft, with each owning a Bargain Rating of at least 81 percent; four of the six own Bargain Ratings of at least 91 percent. Projected No. 6 hitter Scott Schebler has a career-high 29 home runs this season, and he leads the team with a 12-month ISO of .271. He’s also in good recent form, posting a distance differential of +22 feet over his last 13 games.
On the afternoon slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Astros have been one of the best hitting teams all season, leading the league with an average of 5.4 runs per game. They’re facing Angels left-hander Tyler Skaggs, and the Astros have the second-best wOBA (.346) and third-best ISO (.192) against southpaws this season. They are also in good recent form, with only Alex Bregman owning a negative distance differential over the last 15 days:
Bregman, George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa have all hit lefties very well over the past 12 months, with each owning a wOBA split of at least .393. Yuliski Gurriel doesn’t have the same splits, but he does have a distance differential of +23 feet over his last 11 games. Projected to bat eighth, he could be a key differentiator for Astros stacks. You can review the ownership dynamics of a particular stack using the new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Batters
Freddie Freeman has crushed righties over the past 12 months, owning a .431 wOBA and .309 ISO, and he’s in excellent recent form at the moment. He’s posted a distance differential of +20 feet over his last 12 games, and the Braves are implied for the second-highest total of the day at 5.2 runs.
Mookie Betts was scratched on Saturday with a sore foot, but if he’s active he appears to be in a good spot today. He leads the slate with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.93 over his last 10 games.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our MLB news blurbs:
