The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate: There’s an 11-game main slate starting at 1:05 pm ET and a four-game afternoon slate starting at 3:10 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers on today’s slate have salaries of at least $10,400 on DraftKings, headlined by Corey Kluber at $13,400:
Kluber has been lights out recently, recording an average Plus/Minus of +11.49 and a Consistency Rating of 90 percent on DraftKings over his last 10 starts. His matchup today against the Royals is an interesting one. On one hand, they’ve been one of the worst hitting teams all season against right-handed pitchers, posting a wOBA of just .316. Their opponent implied team total of 2.9 runs is the lowest mark on the slate, and the Indians’ implied team total of 4.6 runs results in -234 odds for Kluber. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically done well on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
On the other hand, the Royals have been one of the tougher teams in baseball to strike out: Their projected lineup has the second-lowest splits-adjusted K rate on the slate at just 20.0 percent. Still, Kluber is one of the top strikeout artists in baseball, so while his K Prediction of 8.4 might be low for him, it’s still the top mark on the slate.
Kluber’s recent Statcast data has also been excellent. He’s allowed an average distance of 180 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 22 percent over his last three starts, all of which represent decreases compared to his 12-month averages. His distance differential of -23 feet is particularly impressive, and combining a comparable distance differential and K Prediction results in a strong historical cohort of pitchers:
He should be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate, which Pro Subscribers can review using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Justin Verlander is second on the slate in both opponent implied team total (3.7 runs) and moneyline odds (-209), and he’s been in even more impressive recent form than Kluber. He’s posted a distance differential of -33 feet over his last two starts, and his average of 107 pitches per game over that time frame is the second-highest mark on the slate. Pitchers with comparable distance differentials, recent pitch counts, and moneyline odds have historically crushed on FanDuel:
His K Prediction of 6.6 ranks fourth on the main slate, and his FanDuel Bargain Rating of 92 percent ranks first. He looks like a strong pivot option for those willing to risk fading Kluber in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Values
Eduardo Rodriguez lags way behind Kluber in terms of his Vegas data – he has moneyline odds of -128 and an opponent implied team total of 4.0 runs – but his K Prediction (8.3) and distance differential (-21 feet) are Kluber-like. He’s significantly cheaper at only $7,900 on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +4.98 on DraftKings.
Rodriguez has averaged 108 pitches per start over the last 15 days, which is the top mark on the slate, and pitching in Tropicana Field against the Rays results in a friendly Park Factor of 84. There have been only three pitchers in our database to combine comparable distance differentials, K Predictions, recent pitch counts, and Park Factors, and those pitchers have absolutely smashed on DraftKings:
Those pitchers have also had an average salary of $11,300, so Rodriguez has much more potential to outscore his salary-expected production. He’ll likely be a popular option to pair with Kluber on DraftKings, and you can review their combined ownership using the new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Sonny Gray is taking the mound for the Yankees today, and they could not be hotter offensively at the moment. They’ve averaged 10 runs per game over their last three games against the Orioles, and their implied team total of 6.1 runs on today’s slate is the highest mark outside of Coors Field. Gray’s resulting moneyline odds of -174 ranks third on today’s slate, as does his K Prediction of 6.9.
Gray has been extremely consistent since joining the Yankees, allowing more than two earned runs in just one of eight starts, and he’s coming off an eight-inning, nine-strikeout gem in his last outing. His recent Statcast data is also solid, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -3 feet.
Fastballs
Garrett Richards: He’s an interesting option on the afternoon slate at just $6,700 on DraftKings; he has an opponent implied team total of 3.8 runs and moneyline odds of -183. That said, this will only be his third start since coming off the disabled list, and he threw just 63 pitches in his last outing. He could get a little more than that today against the Rangers, but his upside seems capped.
Kyle Gibson: He trails only Kluber on DraftKings with six Pro Trends, thanks in part to solid Statcast differentials over the past 15 days. However, some of his Pro Trends come from more unexpected places. It’s expected to be cold in Minnesota, resulting in a Weather Rating of just 24 for opposing batters, and the Twins will be playing in their fifth straight home game. While those two factors might not seem significant, pitchers with comparable Weather Ratings and home game streaks have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.17 on DraftKings. His traditional metrics are not that impressive, which should result in relatively low ownership for Gibson on today’s slate.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into lineups. On the main slate, the top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (using the Bales Model) belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves are currently implied for 5.1 runs against Mets right-hander Robert Gsellman. While their implied team total ranks just sixth on the slate, their Team Value Rating on DraftKings of 83 ranks third. That’s due in part to the Braves being collectively underpriced on DraftKings, where three of the stacked batters own Bargain Ratings of at least 70 percent:
Freddie Freeman is one of the most underappreciated hitters in baseball, and he’s in awesome form at the moment. He homered on Saturday and has an average distance of 251 feet over his last 13 games; batters with comparable distances and implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.35.
FantasyDraft allows you to stack up to six batters from the same team, and today’s top six-man stack belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
The Rockies once again lead the slate with an implied team total of 6.9 runs, and they’re scheduled to face Padres right-hander Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin is typically a ground ball pitcher, but recently he’s been failing to induce grounders at his normal rate and has posted a distance differential of +11 feet. The Rockies bats, meanwhile, are in good form, with four of the stacked batters owning positive distance differentials over the past 15 days:
Carlos Gonzalez homered yesterday and continues to destroy the baseball. His +47 foot distance differential is one of the top marks on the slate, and batters at Coors with comparable differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +4.82 on FantasyDraft.
Batters
Jesse Winker is projected to bat leadoff for the Reds against Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole. Winker has fared well against righties over the past 12 months, owning a .418 wOBA and .270 ISO, and he’s posted a +16 foot distance differential over the last 15 days. At just $3,400 on DraftKings, he’s likely underpriced given his current role.
Aaron Judge continues to post video game-worthy Statcast numbers over the past 15 days: a 268-foot average distance, 98 MPH exit velocity, and 45 percent hard hit rate. He’s posted an average DraftKings Plus/Minus of +4.83 over his last 10 games, and his Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +10 suggests that production has been warranted.
The Tigers have a Team Value Rating of 99 on DraftKings thanks to an implied team total of 5.9 runs and a host of inexpensive batters. Miguel Cabrera is priced down to $3,100, and he’s set to face White Sox right-hander Dylan Covey. Covey has an ERA of 7.90 over his 15 major league appearances and has allowed an average of 3.0 home runs per nine innings over that time span. Cabrera hasn’t been great from a fantasy perspective recently, with an average Plus/Minus of -0.85 over his last 10 games, but his Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +50 suggests he’s likely due for positive regression. He did leave Saturday’s game early, but if he’s in the lineup today, he makes for an interesting buy-low candidate.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
