The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate: There’s a 10-game main slate starting at 1:07 pm ET and a five-game late slate starting at 4:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers today have salaries of at least $9,700 on FanDuel:
All four of these pitchers are much easier to afford on FanDuel, where each has a Bargain Rating of at least 95 percent.
Stephen Strasburg leads the slate with a salary of $10,900, and he has elite Vegas data in his matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies. His opponent implied team total of 3.0 runs and moneyline odds of -280 are both tops on the slate, and pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have historically dominated on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
The Phillies’ strikeout rate of 23.7 percent against right-handed pitchers is the fifth-worst mark this season, and Strasburg’s resulting K Prediction of 8.6 is tied for first on today’s slate.
Strasburg also boasts some of the best recent Statcast data among today’s pitchers, allowing an average distance of 176 feet, exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 21 percent over his last two starts. His recent distance represents a differential of -28 feet compared to his 12-month average, and pitchers with comparable differentials and K Predictions have historically been awesome values:
Combining his Vegas data, K Prediction, and recent Statcast data results in a historical Plus/Minus of +15.50 on FanDuel; Strasburg seems like an elite option on today’s slate.
Robbie Ray is one of the preeminent strikeout pitchers in baseball, and he has a matchup today against one of the most strikeout prone teams in the league. Ray is coming off three straight starts with at least nine strikeouts, and the Padres have struck out in 25.1 percent of at-bats against left-handed pitchers this season. His K Prediction of 8.6 is tied with Strasburg’s for the top mark on the day, and given his recent numbers it might be a conservative estimate. He also has excellent Vegas data in this matchup, with an opponent implied team total of 3.6 runs and moneyline odds of -225.
Despite his recent success, however, Ray’s Statcast data from his last two starts is downright terrifying. He’s allowed an average distance of 241 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 46 percent, resulting in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of -97. Those numbers aren’t as important for Ray given that he usually limits the amount of balls put in play against him, but it’s concerning nonetheless; pitchers with comparable distances and Rec BBLs have a historical Plus/Minus of -3.01 on DraftKings. He still offers a ton of upside, but he might not be as safe as you would think given his matchup against the Padres.
Values
Rich Hill doesn’t stand out as elite in any one particular category, but he has solid marks across the board: 3.6 opponent implied team total, -179 moneyline odds, and 7.4 K Prediction. Pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have historically been solid on DraftKings:
Most of the Dodgers pitchers have been on strict pitch counts for most of the season, but Hill’s has been especially strict. He’s thrown over 100 pitches in just two of 21 starts this season, and his average of 78 pitches over his last two starts makes him tough to trust. His recent Statcast data isn’t great either, posting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +11 feet.
Michael Wacha has two straight starts against poor hitting teams in pitcher’s parks, and he’ll extend that streak to three today against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. Their projected lineup has an awful .275 wOBA split over the past 12 months, and PNC Park rewards Wacha with a high Park Factor of 77. He’s a -165 favorite in this matchup, and pitchers with comparable odds and Park Factors have historically returned value:
What really stands out about Wacha today is his recent batted ball distance of 166 feet. That represents a differential of -31 feet compared to his 12-month average, and factoring a comparable differential into the above trend increases the Plus/Minus to an astounding +9.23, albeit over a sample size of just 12 instances. His limited fantasy success over his two previous starts also results in a slate-high Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +88. At only $7,900 on DraftKings, Wacha looks like one of the top options for those looking to spend down a bit at pitcher.
Fastballs
Jacob deGrom: His opponent implied team total of 3.6 runs is tied for second on today’s slate, and his K Prediction of 7.8 ranks fourth. He also has a distance differential of -11 feet over his last two starts, and pitchers with comparable distance differentials, K Predictions, and opponent implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +4.89 on FanDuel. He should come at an ownership discount compared to Strasburg, which can be reviewed using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Dallas Keuchel: As usual, Keuchel has elite Statcast data over his last two starts, posting an average distance of 164 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, ground ball rate of 75 percent, and hard hit rate of 22 percent. What’s not usual, however, is his K Prediction of 7.9. Oakland’s projected lineup has a 33.3 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, which is the highest mark on today’s slate by a significant margin.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS Lineups. On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Giants’ current implied team total of 5.2 runs ranks fourth on the slate, and their Team Value Rating of 86 ranks third. They’re facing White Sox right-hander Carson Fulmer, who’s making just his second start of the season. Despite being drafted eighth overall, Fulmer has yet to find success in the big leagues: He has a terrible 9.17 ERA and 2.55 HR/9 over 17.2 career innings. The stacked batters for the Giants are also in good recent form, with each owning a positive distance differential over the past 15 days:
Ryder Jones has the strongest distance differential of the group at +30, and he’s very affordable at just $2,800 on DraftKings. The interesting 1-2-4-8-9 combination of Giants batters should also be a more unique combination than a generic 1-5 stack, which can be reviewed using the new DFS Contests Dashboard.
On the afternoon slate, the top six-man FantasyDraft stack belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks lead the slate with an implied team total of 5.5 runs, and they’re facing Padres right-hander Luis Perdomo. They’re also playing in Chase Field, which has historically been an extremely hitter-friendly park; only batters at Coors have averaged more fantasy points:
Of the stacked batters, J.D. Martinez continues to be in the best recent form. He has an average FantasyDraft Plus/Minus of +8.96 over his last 10 games, and his recent Statcast data has been awesome: 282-foot average distance, 98 MPH exit velocity, and 61 percent hard hit rate. Batters with comparable numbers have a historical Plus/Minus of +5.13 when playing at Chase Field.
Batters
The Royals lead the main slate with a Team Value Rating of 89, and Salvador Perez is particularly interesting today. He hasn’t done well recently from a fantasy perspective, averaging a Plus/Minus of -0.63 on DraftKings over his last 10 games, but his underlying Statcast data over that time frame has been excellent. He’s posted an average distance of 243 feet, resulting in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +83, and batters with comparable distances and Recent BBLs have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.48. He also has a plus matchup today against Bartolo Colon, who has an ERA of 6.06 and has allowed 23 home runs so far this season.
Ezequiel Carrera is projected to bat leadoff today for a Blue Jays team implied for 5.6 runs, and at just $2,200 on FanDuel he seems underpriced for that role. He’s also in good recent form with a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +26 feet, and leadoff hitters with comparable salaries, implied team totals, and distance differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +5.82.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
