The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate: There’s a 12-game main slate starting at 1:10 pm ET, and a three-game late slate starting at 4:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today features a strong group of stud pitchers, with four players owning price tags of at least $11,800 on DraftKings:
Jacob deGrom leads the slate with a $12,700 price tag, and he stands out as the clear top option on the main slate. His opponent implied team total of 3.6 runs leads the slate by a margin of 0.5 runs, and his moneyline odds of -158 rank fourth. His matchup against the Miami Marlins does somewhat limit his strikeout upside – their projected lineup has the sixth-lowest splits-adjusted strikeout rate on today’s slate – but his K Prediction of 7.0 is still solid, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically been valuable options on DraftKings (per the MLB Trends tool):
What really sets deGrom apart, however, is his recent Statcast data: He’s allowed an average distance of 193 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 27 percent over his last two starts. The batted ball distance is particularly strong and represents a differential of -15 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Factoring a comparable decrease into the previous trend results in a significant increase in fantasy production:
deGrom also leads all pitchers today with 10 Pro Trends, which has historically correlated with a Plus/Minus of +3.84 on DraftKings.
On the afternoon slate, DFS players will have to make a difficult decision between Madison Bumgarner and Gio Gonzalez. Bumgarner has the clear edge in Vegas data – his opponent implied team total of 3.0 and moneyline odds of -215 both rank first on the day – and pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically smashed on FanDuel:
He has a good matchup against the Phillies, whose projected lineup has a 12-month splits-adjusted wOBA of just .304, and facing them in San Francisco rewards Bumgarner with a slate-high Park Factor of 92.
The one issue with Bumgarner is his mediocre K Prediction of 6.3. That ranks just 12th on the day and puts him significantly behind Gonzalez in that regard. Gonzalez leads the slate with a K Prediction of 10.8, thanks in part to an elite matchup against the San Diego Padres. They’ve been the best matchup for pitchers this season, and they’ve been particularly feeble against left-handed pitchers: Their projected lineup has the highest splits-adjusted strikeout rate on the slate at 34.7 percent. Gio’s Vegas data is surprisingly average given such a matchup, particularly his moneyline odds of -104, but pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have still been amazing values:
Given the importance of strikeouts in daily fantasy baseball, it’s not surprising to see pitchers comparable to Gonzalez historically provide more value than pitchers comparable to Bumgarner.
In addition to his strikeout upside, Gonzalez has also posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -25 feet, and combining his distance differential and strikeout potential puts Gonzalez in super elite company. There have been only eight previous pitchers in our database with a K Prediction of at least 9.5 and a distance differential of at least -20, and those pitchers have averaged 50.25 FanDuel points and a +15.17 Plus/Minus.
Both Gonzalez and Bumgarner are much easier to afford on FanDuel, where each pitcher has a Bargain Rating of at least 97 percent; they will likely dominate ownership on the afternoon slate.
Values
Kyle Hendricks is relatively cheap at only $7,500 on DraftKings, but his moneyline odds of -191 make him the second-largest favorite on the main slate. Pitchers with comparable salaries and moneyline odds have historically been nice values on DraftKings:
His K Prediction of 7.5 is also quite good, and he’s allowed an average distance of 200 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 24 percent over his last two starts. There’s currently no total on this game due to the importance of the wind conditions at Wrigley Field, but barring an usually high opponent implied team total, Hendricks should be a popular value option on the main slate.
Brad Peacock leads the main slate in two important categories: K Prediction (8.0) and moneyline odds (-205). Pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have historically dominated on FanDuel:
Peacock has also posted 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of -24 feet, -2 miles per hour, and -10 percentage points; he’s in excellent recent form. The only concern with Peacock is his pitch count: He’s making his third start after spending some time in the bullpen and has averaged just 92 pitches over his last two starts. That probably makes him a little more risky than his data might suggest, although his upside remains high for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Fastballs
Kenta Maeda: He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.11 on DraftKings over his last 10 starts, and playing for the Dodgers results in moneyline odds of -150 for today’s contest against the Tigers. His K Prediction of 7.6 ranks third on the main slate.
Blake Snell: He doesn’t stand out in any one particular category, but he has solid marks across the board on today’s slate: -135 moneyline odds, 6.3 K Prediction, -6 foot distance differential, and an 82 Park Factor. At only $5,900 on DraftKings, comparably-priced pitchers have a historical Plus/Minus of +5.32, and Snell will likely have lower ownership than the previously-mentioned value options on the main slate.
Pro subscribers can review the ownership for these players and all others using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. We’ve recently added FantasyDraft tools to our Models – check out Bryan Mears’ inaugural piece for all the details – and the top six-man FantasyDraft stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Brewers are implied for 6.0 runs facing the Rockies in Colorado. The Brewers have been swinging the bat well recently, with four of the six stacked batters owning 15-day/12-month distance differentials of +7 feet or greater:
Domingo Santana certainly stands out today: He’s recently moved to the leadoff spot for the Brewers, and leadoff hitters at Coors with comparable distance differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.05 on FantasyDraft.
On the afternoon slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
The afternoon slate doesn’t feature many strong offensive options, with the Giants’ implied team total of 4.6 ranking first on the small three-game slate. They’re set to face Phillies right-hander Ben Lively, who’s making his first start in nearly two months. He has a dreadful 12-month SO/9 of 3.63, and being right-handed puts the majority of the stacked batters on the positive side of their batting splits:
Given their implied team total, the Giants will likely be among the highest-owned teams on the afternoon slate. One potential differentiator for Giants stacks could be Ryder Jones, who has posted a distance differential of +14 feet over his last 13 games. Projected to bat seventh, Jones could make Giants stacks more contrarian, which can be reviewed using our new DFS Contest Dashboard.
Batters
The Rangers actually have the highest implied team total on the slate at 6.8 runs, which is rare considering Coors Field is on the slate. One Ranger that offers some appeal is Rougned Odor, who has a 12-month ISO split of .253 and has posted a distance differential of +17 feet over his last 12 games. Batters with comparable implied team totals and distance differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.09.
Miguel Cabrera has been priced down to $3,300 on FanDuel, but his average Plus/Minus of -3.28 over his last 10 games has made the decrease warranted. Still, his underlying Statcast data over that time period has been good, resulting in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +72. He’s posted a distance differential of +18 feet over his last 11 games, and batters with comparable differentials and Recent Batted Ball Luck scores have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.21 on FanDuel.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
