The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday presents a 10-game main slate on DraftKings and a nine-game main slate on FanDuel. Both begin at 1:05 pm ET; the Astros-Rangers game is excluded on FanDuel. The Giants and Nationals play a doubleheader; their first game is the only one included in the main slate, restricting Max Scherzer to the DraftKings six-game afternoon slate.
Pitchers
Studs
Six pitchers cost more than $9,000 on DraftKings, and four of them are available in the main slate. Three pitchers are priced above $9,000 on FanDuel, of whom only Corey Kluber is an option in the main slate:
Kluber has excelled since the beginning of June, leading all pitchers with an average of 35.18 DraftKings points and a 100 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool):
He’s ranked first among starters during that stretch with 95.1 innings, 13.4 SO/9, 0.73 WHIP, and 0.204 wOBA allowed. No other pitcher on the main slate challenges Kluber’s peripherals, and Chris Sale is the only sensible pivot in the all-day slate at $14,200 on DraftKings.
The Rays have struck out more than any other American League team this season, and their current roster has the fifth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. They’ve also scored the fewest runs in August (22) while registering a 28.3 percent strikeout rate and a league-worst 0.259 wOBA. Kluber has struck out at least 10 batters in 11 of his last 13 starts, and he’s pitched consecutive one-run complete games recently. He’s an elite pitcher with an exceptional matchup on a slate in which only one other pitcher is facing a team implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard) and no other pitcher has a 12-month SO/9 rate above 8.9.
Kluber leads pitchers on the slate with a 9.2 K Prediction, 3.2 opponent implied run total, and -190 moneyline odds. Similar marks from expensive pitchers have historically resulted in a +2.68 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 67.3 percent Consistency Rating. Kluber has matched the trend three times (all occurring last month), averaging 32.07 DraftKings points and a 46.2 percent ownership rate in guaranteed prize pools. He may actually be underpriced on DraftKings; based on his +22.48 FanDuel Plus/Minus over the last 10 outings, his $11,800 should be considered a bargain.
Kluber is far and away the top option on the slate, and he’ll likely receive astronomical GPP ownership. That may not be enough to warrant a fade due to the low ceilings for the rest of the pitchers on the main slate. His K Prediction is 1.9 points higher than that of the next highest pitcher, and Kluber has averaged 27.57 DraftKings points with an 81.3 percent Consistency Rating with comparable K Predictions. Pro subscribers can access ownership shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard. They can also see how other DFS players approached Kluber via our new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Chris Sale is available only in the all-day slate. He costs $700 more than Kluber on DraftKings and $500 less on FanDuel. When both pitched last Tuesday, Sale was the preferred target in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) on DraftKings and FanDuel:
Sale is facing the Yankees for a third time this season, and in the first two starts he accumulated 23 strikeouts in 15.1 innings. Sale costs a season-low $11,300 on FanDuel for the second time this year, and the $500 price disparity between him and Kluber could tip the scales in Sale’s favor. Kluber has allowed at least one home run in five straight starts, and Sale has held four of his last five opponents scoreless. Sale has the inferior K Prediction (8.7) and opponent implied total (3.6), but he’s limited hitters to a 12 percent hard hit rate in his last two starts.
Sale costs at least $14,000 on DraftKings for the fourth time in our database; Clayton Kershaw accounts for 35 of the 52 instances of a pitcher priced that high. His salary may be warranted, but he will likely carry more value as a pivot given that Kluber is cheaper. Road favorites with similar K Predictions and opponent totals have averaged a +3.18 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and Sale has averaged 26.94 DraftKings points in six such outings, which is 3.42 points greater than tonight’s salary-based expectation.
Values
R.A. Dickey is one of several potential SP2 punt options, none of whom offer much safety in cash games. He costs $6,000 on DraftKings, and he’s limited hitters to a 19 percent hard hit rate and 185-foot batted ball distance in his last two starts. Detracting from his appeal is an opponent implied total of 4.9 runs. However, when he’s faced teams implied for comparable marks, he’s averaged a +3.05 DraftKings Plus/Minus this season and exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of the last eight instances — missing in one start by 0.08 points. The SP2 market in cash games is dry in the main slate since so many teams are implied for high totals, but Dickey at least has solid recent Statcast data, including a 61 percent ground ball rate, and cheap pitchers with a similar K Prediction (6.0) have averaged 12.65 DraftKings points, or 0.94 points above Dickey’s salary-implied point total. In the six times Dickey matched the trend, he averaged 22.91 DraftKings points and 2.9 percent GPP ownership.
Kenta Maeda opposes a projected Padres lineup presently implied to score 3.2 runs, the lowest mark on the all-day slate. The last time he faced them, they were implied for the same total yet scored five runs in 3.2 innings, resulting in -5.75 DraftKings points for Maeda. Following that debacle, Maeda has exceeded salary-based expectations in five consecutive outings, and he costs $1,000 less today on DraftKings than he did the last time he faced the Padres. An 8.7 K Prediction is his second-highest mark in our database, and he leads all pitchers with -277 moneyline odds. Analogous factors have historically led to a +6.72 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 75 percent Consistency Rating. Maeda isn’t available in the main slate, but he’ll likely be the top SP2 option on DraftKings in the afternoon and all-day slates.
Fastballs
Michael Wacha: Other than Kluber, Wacha is the only other pitcher in the main slate facing a team presently implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs. Wacha’s salary may limit his overall appeal since he costs $400 less than Dallas Keuchel on DraftKings, but that’s the primary reason at least to consider rostering him in GPPs.
Austin Pruitt: He’s opposing Kluber, which could reduce his overall appeal. However, he’s plenty cheap on DraftKings ($6,400), and he’s limited hitters to a 61 percent ground ball rate in his last two starts. Pairing Pruitt with Kluber is one way to create a potentially unique GPP lineup while increasing salary cap space for hitters.
German Marquez: Kluber is the only other pitcher to exceed salary-based expectations in his last seven starts, and Marquez has averaged a +4.95 DraftKings Plus/Minus over the last 10 with a 90 percent Consistency Rating. He’s allowed no more than three runs and pitched into the sixth inning in seven straight outings — four of which were at Coors Field.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model belongs the Mariners, whose implied total has risen 0.6 runs since the line opened:
Angels right-hander Parker Bridwell has allowed a much higher wOBA to left-handed hitters, and he’s been less effective on the road this season, allowing seven of his 10 homers and a 0.337 wOBA. The Mariners stack contains four lefty hitters and four bats who have recent batted ball distances of at least 226 feet. That’s two feet shy of Bridwell’s recent batted ball distance allowed. This six-man stack is on the expensive side, but the last time the Mariners faced Bridwell they scored five runs and hit two homers in his 6.0 innings pitched.
The top-rated DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Brewers, who presently rank third in the main slate with a team implied total of 5.2 runs:
Eric Thames, Ryan Braun, and Travis Shaw homered last night, making it two games in a row for Thames. Recency bias may play a role in ownership for Brewers atop the lineup. Reds righty Sal Romano has the third-highest WHIP in the all-day slate, but he’s also limited home run damage to all but one team this season — the Brewers in his first start of the year. Romano has allowed a 40 percent hard hit rate in his last two starts, and the hitters in the stack have averaged a +2.66 DraftKings Plus/Minus when implied for a similar team total this season. Shaw is at risk of missing the game after fouling a ball off his right foot on Saturday, but he’s one of five hitters in the stack with a recent hard hit rate of at least 35 percent. This stack offers plenty of upside in GPPs, but they might be short one bat if Shaw is held out.
Batters
Joey Votto has reached base in 17 straight games, over which time he’s averaged a +6.22 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an 81.3 percent Consistency Rating. He’s priced at a season-high $5,100 on FanDuel, and he’s facing a pitcher in Matt Garza who has allowed a slate-high 257-foot batted ball distance combined with a 51 percent fly ball rate and 38 percent hard hit rate in his last two starts. Votto’s salary will likely reduce his overall GPP ownership, but if you’re going to fade Kluber for the potential ownership edge you’ll gain at least $3,800 in cap space. The Reds are presently implied to score 4.6 runs, a mark on the lower side, but Votto has been extremely successful at Miller Park in 38 games since the 2012 season:
Jake Arrieta has allowed 17 stolen bases this season, and two starts prior A.J. Pollock swiped a bag off him and Alex Avila. Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo has rested Pollock every few games since his return at the beginning of July, and since the Diamondbacks don’t play until three hours after lineup lock, rostering him may be a move better reserved for GPPs if the lineup is confirmed late. Pollock leads the Diamondbacks with a +4.66 FanDuel Plus/Minus at Chase Field this season, and the whole team has recorded a season-best +2.47 FanDuel Plus/Minus at home.
The Royals are presently implied to score 5.4 runs, their seventh-highest total this season and the second-highest mark on the main slate. They possess the second- and third-highest Team Value Ratings on DraftKings and FanDuel, and they’re facing a pitcher in Derek Holland who has allowed a slate-high 42 percent recent hard hit rate and at least one home run in six starts prior to his last. Melky Cabrera has reached base in all but two games since joined the Royals at the trade deadline, and the top five projected hitters in the lineup have averaged a +2.67 DraftKings Plus/Minus when implied for similar totals this season. They’re reasonably priced, and they have a great matchup to exploit in all formats.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
