The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday offers a split slate: There’s a 10-game main slate starting at 1:05 pm ET and a five-game afternoon slate starting at 4:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today features a very strong group of elite pitchers; five are priced at $10,400 or higher on DraftKings.
Chris Archer and Yu Darvish are the two studs available in the main slate, and both have their merits. Both pitchers have opponent implied team totals of 4.1 runs, and both have high strikeout upside: Darvish is second on the slate with a 12-month K/9 of 10.81, while Archer ranks third at 10.69.
For cash games, Darvish looks like the safer option. His matchup against the Angels is an excellent one: The Angels’ projected lineup 12-month wOBA split of .267 is the worst mark among all early teams. Although Darvish’s K Prediction of 6.0 is somewhat low, he should be able to make up for it with -180 moneyline odds. Pitchers with comparable odds and K Predictions have historically been great values on FanDuel, where Darvish also has a strong Bargain Rating of 98 percent (per the Trends tool):
Archer is actually a slight underdog today thanks to a tough pitching matchup against David Price. However, he does have two things working in his favor. First, he’s pitching at home in the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, and his corresponding Park Factor of 83 is the second-highest mark on the slate. Second, he’s posted strong distance and hard hit differentials of -15 feet and -11 percentage points over his last two starts. When combined with his K Prediction of 6.7, pitchers with comparable differentials and Park Factors have historically been solid investments on DraftKings:
He should come at lower ownership than Darvish given their respective Vegas data, which increases his appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
On the afternoon slate, DFS players will have to make the difficult decision between Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber on FanDuel. Unsurprisingly, Kershaw leads the slate in both opponent implied team total at 2.5 runs and moneyline odds at -299. That kind of Vegas data is significant; pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have historically dominated on FanDuel:
The one slight knock on Kershaw is his strikeout upside in his matchup against the Royals. Their strikeout rate of 18.9 percent against left-handed pitchers is the sixth-lowest mark in the league this season, and Kershaw’s corresponding K Prediction of 7.4 is somewhat pedestrian for a $13,000 pitcher.
Kluber, meanwhile, has struck out double-digit batters in six of seven games since coming off the disabled list, and his K Prediction of 9.3 is easily the top mark today. And while his Vegas data isn’t exactly Kershaw-caliber, it’s still elite: His moneyline odds (-197) and opponent implied team total (3.3) are both second-best among today’s starters.
He also has a slightly better batted ball profile than Kershaw, owning a recent distance differential of -20 feet. Historically, pitchers with comparable distance differentials and K Predictions have done really well on DraftKings:
Kershaw will likely command higher ownership due to the fact that he’s Kershaw, but you could make a very strong case that Kluber has more upside today.
Values
Despite the large moneyline odds for Darvish and distance differential for Archer, there are plenty of strong value options that stand out on the main slate. Archer and Darvish have K Predictions that rank only seventh and 12th, respectively, so at a bare minimum there are a bunch of pitchers that offer more upside at a reduced salary.
After a dreadful start to the season, Masahiro Tanaka has really come on of late. He’s returned value on FanDuel in each of his last three starts, posting an average Plus/Minus of +17.67 over that time span:
His matchup today against Milwaukee could be a bit of a boom-or-bust spot. They have a top-four ISO this season against right-handed pitchers at .199, but they also have the fourth-highest strikeout rate at 24.6 percent. Tanaka’s resulting K Prediction of 6.9 ranks fifth on the slate, and when combined with his -153 moneyline odds, comparable pitchers have fared well on FanDuel:
Where Tanaka really stands out, however, is his recent Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed an average batted ball distance of 159 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 17 percent. Those numbers are elite, and pitchers with comparable marks have a historical Plus/Minus of +5.84 on FanDuel.
Jon Lester has some excellent Statcast data in his own right, posting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -27 feet. He also has moneyline odds of -160 and a K Prediction of 7.2, and pitchers with comparable numbers in all three categories have historically been solid on DraftKings:
His DraftKings Bargain Rating of 89 percent is also the second-best mark on the main slate. There’s currently no total on this game due to the importance of the wind conditions at Wrigley Field, but barring an unexpectedly large opponent implied team total, Lester should be considered a top option.
Fastballs
Trevor Cahill: He’s making his second start since returning from the disabled list and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.34 on DraftKings over his first eight starts this season. His K Prediction of 7.7 ranks second on the main slate.
Danny Duffy: He should be low-owned due to his brutal matchup against Kershaw, but outside of his Vegas data there’s a lot to like about Duffy this afternoon. His K Prediction of 6.7 ranks third on the slate, and he’s posted 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of -33 feet, -6 miles per hour, and -16 percentage points. Historically, pitchers with comparable differentials and K Predictions have a massive Plus/Minus of +5.16 on DraftKings.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. We’ve recently added FantasyDraft tools – check out Bryan Mears’ piece on strategy, lineup settings, and scoring – and they allow you to stack up to six batters from the same team. The top six-man FantasyDraft stack on the early slate using the Bales Model belongs to the Chicago White Sox:
The White Sox are finishing up their series at Coors today, and their implied team total of 5.5 runs is tied for the third-highest on the slate (per the Vegas Dashboard). They’re facing Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland, which should be a positive for the White Sox: They lead the league with a .353 wOBA against southpaws this season, and all of the stacked batters except Carlos Sanchez are on the positive side of their splits:
These batters are also relatively affordable – Jose Abreu has a Bargain Rating of 94 percent; the other five batters have ratings of 81 – and playing at Coors rewards all batters with a Park Factor of 100.
On the afternoon slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
Their implied team total of 5.9 runs ranks first on the slate by a margin of 0.5 runs. These batters are also in relatively good recent batted ball form, with all but Jake Lamb posting positive 15-day/12-month distance differentials:
Some of those distance differentials are significant: Batters with a differential of 15 to 25 feet at Chase Field have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.74 on DraftKings. The Diamondbacks should be chalky on the afternoon slate; Pro Subscribers can review ownership using our DFS Ownership Dashboard. Projected No. 8 hitter Chris Iannetta could be a potential diversifying option: He should be lower-owned, and his Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +73 suggests he could be due for some positive regression.
Batters
Yoenis Cespedes has been absolutely dreadful over his last 10 games:
However, his Statcast data suggests things shouldn’t have been nearly that bad. His 15-day distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials are all in line with his 12-month averages, resulting in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +73 on DraftKings. He’s definitely due for some positive regression.
Eric Thames was red hot to start the season, and it looks like he could be heating up again. He’s posted an average distance of 272 feet over his last seven games, and batters with comparable recent distances have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.10 on FanDuel.
George Springer leads the slate with 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings and is on the positive side of his batting splits facing left-handed pitcher J.A. Happ. Springer has absolutely destroyed the baseball recently, posting 15-day/12-month distance and hard hit differentials of +42 feet and +11 percentage points, and batters with comparable differentials and number of Pro Trends have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.53 on DraftKings.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
