The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate: There’s a 12-game main slate starting at 1:05 pm ET (with the first game of the Yankees-Red Sox doubleheader) and a four-game afternoon slate at 3:37 pm ET (with the second game of the Yankees-Red Sox doubleheader).
Pitchers
Studs
There are four pitchers on today’s slate priced at $10,800 or higher on DraftKings:
With Rich Hill possessing the highest price tag at $11,900, this is a somewhat uninspiring group of stud pitchers. Not one has moneyline odds of greater than -135 or an opponent implied team total less than 4.0 runs. Additionally, all four pitchers have Bargain Ratings of 10 percent or less on DraftKings. It seems like today it might be contrarian to pay up for pitching in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Yu Darvish leads the main slate with a K Prediction of 7.4, and he’s also a slight favorite with -128 moneyline odds. Historically, pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have returned value on FanDuel (per the Trends Tool):
Darvish also has solid Statcast data over his last two starts, posting 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of +1 foot, -2 miles per hour, and -5 percentage points.
Those differentials are nothing to write home about, but they’re excellent compared to what Carlos Martinez has done recently. His average distance of 219 feet over his last two starts represents an increase of +22 feet when compared to his 12-month average, and pitchers with comparable differentials have historically not fared well on DraftKings:
Despite his recent batted ball profile, Martinez should garner plenty of interest on the main slate. He leads the stud pitchers with -132 moneyline odds and an opponent implied team total of 4.0 runs, and pitching in Pittsburgh rewards him with a high Park Factor of 85. The projected Pirates lineup also has a splits-adjusted wOBA of .288 — the second-worst mark on the slate — and his K Prediction of 6.6 is solid.
On the afternoon slate, Chris Archer looks like a strong option. He leads the slate with a K Prediction of 7.3 and pitching at home in Tampa Bay gives him a strong Park Factor of 84. Pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have historically done well on DraftKings:
Archer has posted strong Statcast data over his last two starts with an average distance of 203 feet, exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 27 percent. He also leads all of today’s pitchers with a recent pitch count of 112, and that also has value: Pitchers with comparable recent pitch counts and K Predictions have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.00 on DraftKings. He should be a chalky option on the small four-game slate.
Values
Mike Fiers has been a solid option for the Astros this season, posting a 3.84 ERA through his first 17 starts. He’s returned value for DFS players in eight of his last 10 outings on DraftKings:
At only $7,300, Fiers leads the slate with massive -200 moneyline odds. He also has a solid enough K Prediction at 6.1. Pitchers with comparable salaries, odds, and K Predictions have historically been good bargains on DraftKings:
His opponent implied team total of 3.9 runs is also tied for the best mark on the main slate, and Fiers has a solid Bargain Rating of 72 percent on DraftKings. He’ll likely have one of the day’s highest ownership rates, which Pro Subscribers can review using our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Steven Matz should be another popular option on the main slate. His moneyline odds (-140) and opponent implied team total (3.9 runs) are virtually identical to those of Martinez, but his $7,900 price tag on DraftKings makes him nearly $3,000 cheaper. He also ranks second on the slate with a 6.7 K Prediction, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions, moneyline odds, and implied team totals have historically returned value on DraftKings:
Unfortunately, Matz is similar to Martinez in more than just his Vegas data. He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +31 feet and is coming off an outing in which he ‘scored’ -3.05 DraftKings points against the Cardinals. Still, the cheap price tag on Matz makes it easier to look past some of his warts, as does his matchup against Colorado: Left-handed pitchers have a historical Plus/Minus of +4.73 when facing the Rockies away from Coors over the past three seasons.
Fastballs
Rich Hill: He possesses a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on FanDuel, and he’s posted 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of -10 feet, -2 miles per hour, and -2 percentage points. His K Prediction of 6.6 is also tied for third on the main slate. He’d be a much more popular option if not for his status as an underdog, which actually makes him an excellent contrarian play for GPPs.
Zach Godley: He’s dominated with an average Plus/Minus of +10.09 on FanDuel over his last 10 starts, and his 15-day/12-month distance differential of -38 feet is the second-best mark on the slate.
Masahiro Tanaka/David Price: The Yankees and Red Sox played a grueling 16 innings on Saturday and are scheduled to play 18 more today. Depending on what happens in the first leg of their doubleheader, the bullpens for both of these teams could be running on fumes by the start of game two. It’s possible that both managers could ask their high-profile starters for more innings than usual in this contest.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Astros lead the slate with an implied team total of 5.7 runs, and for the most part these bats are cheap on FanDuel; George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Josh Reddick all have Bargain Ratings of at least 86 percent. These batters are also in good recent form, with all but Reddick owning positive distance differentials over the last 15 days:
Springer leads the group with 11 Pro Trends, and batters with a comparable number of Pro Trends have a Plus/Minus of +4.93. Twins right-hander Kyle Gibson has a past year WHIP of 1.73, the second-worst mark on the slate, and has posted 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of +5 feet, +3 miles per hour, and +10 percentage points.
On DraftKings, the top five-man stack in the afternoon slate is a straight stack of the Tampa Bay Rays:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Rays-Angels game currently has no total posted, but there’s a good chance that the Rays will have one of the highest implied team totals on the afternoon slate. Angels right-hander Parker Birdwell has allowed an average of 2.28 home runs per nine innings over the past 12 months, and facing a right-handed pitcher puts all of the stacked batters on the positive side of their batting splits:
Leadoff hitter Mallex Smith is one of the biggest stolen base threats in baseball — his average of .255 steals per game ranks first on the slate — and he has posted a distance differential of +23 feet over his last nine games. Batters with comparable lineup spots, distance differentials, and stolen base ability have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.16.
Batters
Eric Thames was 2-for-4 with two doubles in Saturday’s game against the Phillies, increasing his average distance to 288 feet over the past 15 days. That’s an absolutely massive total, and batters with comparable distances have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.61 on FanDuel. His Recent Batted Ball Luck of +43 suggests he’s also been slightly unlucky in terms of his recent fantasy production despite posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.54 over his last 10 games.
The Cubs are tied with the Astros for the slate’s highest mark with an implied team total of 5.7 runs, and the left-handed and switch hitters for Chicago also benefit from having the highest Park Factor on the slate at 78. One batter worth a look is Kyle Schwarber, who’s recently moved up to fifth in the batting order and has a past year ISO of .261 against right-handed pitchers.
On the afternoon slate, Khris Davis is a potential bargain at only $3,700 on DraftKings. That represents a decrease in salary of $1,200 over his last 10 games, and he has a 12-month wOBA of .371 and ISO of .314 against right-handed pitchers. He’s also in good recent form, posting 15-day/12-month distance and hard hit differentials of +5 feet and +8 percentage points.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
