The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday offers a split slate: There’s a nine-game early slate starting at 1:10 pm ET and a six-game afternoon slate starting at 4:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are five pitchers with a price tag of at least $8,000 on DraftKings; Jordan Zimmermann is the only one in the afternoon slate:
This stands out as one of the worst pitching slates of the year: No pitcher owns a K Prediction of 7.0 or higher, and only one offense is implied for less than 4.2 runs. Michael Pineda is likely the chalk pitcher on the early slate, which should make DFS players wary; calling him a roller coaster in terms of recent fantasy production might be putting it lightly:
There is reason for optimism in today’s start, however. He’s the biggest favorite of the day with -203 moneyline odds, and his K Prediction of 6.9 ranks first as well. Pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have historically done very well on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
The Rangers’ projected lineup has a splits-adjusted K rate of 33 percent over the last 12 months – the worst mark on the slate – and home plate umpire Hal Gibson II has historically rewarded pitchers with a Plus/Minus of +1.24 on DraftKings. Pineda is especially cheap on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
None of the other ‘stud’ pitchers really possess appealing data; none has an opponent implied team total less than 4.5 or a K Prediction of greater than 6.4. For that reason, it might make sense to focus more on things like Park Factors, Statcast data, and projected ownership. One pitcher who grades out well in the latter two categories is Jason Hammel. He’s currently projected for just five to eight percent ownership in our Player Models, and he has 12-month/15-day distance and hard hit differentials of -24 feet and -17 percentage points over his last two starts. Pitchers with comparable differentials have historically returned value on DraftKings:
The Royals have won 11 of their last 13 games, although their current moneyline odds of -100 make them a coin flip to make it 12 out of 14.
Zimmermann has been dreadful this season, posting a 5.25 ERA through his first 14 starts, but he has recently put together four straight quality starts:
He’s set to face the Padres in San Diego, which is beneficial for two reasons. First, the Padres have been the worst team in baseball this season against right-handed pitchers, with the highest strikeout rate (25.8 percent) and second-worst wOBA (.295). Second, Petco Park rewards pitchers with a Park Factor of 79, and even pitchers with a K Prediction as low as Zimmermann’s have historically crushed there on FanDuel:
He also has a Bargain Rating of 73 percent on FanDuel, and his average pitch count of 107 over his last two starts is the highest on the slate.
Values
Brandon McCarthy should be to the afternoon slate what Pineda is to the early one. His opponent implied team total of 3.7 is the lowest mark on the day by a wide margin:
McCarthy also has some of the best Statcast data on the slate: He’s allowed a 190-foot average batted ball distance, a 87 mile per hour exit velocity, and a 20 percent hard hit rate over his last two starts. Pitchers with comparable Statcast data and implied team totals have historically done well on DraftKings:
His moneyline odds of -173 is the third-highest mark of the day, and his K Prediction of 6.3 ranks second on the afternoon slate. His seven Pro Trends on DraftKings are also the most among today’s pitchers.
Mike Montgomery has the third-highest K Prediction today at 6.7, and his matchup against the Marlins in Miami also rewards him with a high Park Factor of 86. Pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.87 on FanDuel. His recent pitch count of 81 over his last two starts is somewhat concerning – especially since he pitched relatively well in those games – but on this slate it may not matter; six innings with a handful of strikeouts might be enough to make Montgomery a difference-maker.
Fastballs
Randall Delgado: His moneyline odds of -181 and K Prediction of 6.1 are very appealing, especially with a salary of only $6,300 on DraftKings. This is his first start in nearly three weeks, however, so it’s fair to question if he can pitch deep enough into the game to make him worth a roster spot.
Matt Moore and Jake Odorizzi: Both have high Park Factors – Moore has a Park Factor of 93; Odorizzi, 88 – and their opponent implied team totals of 4.2 are the second-lowest marks of the day. Moore stands out on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 92 percent, and pitchers with comparable Bargain Ratings, Park Factors, and implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.91. Odorizzi is a slightly better value on FanDuel, and he’s posted 12-month/15-day exit velocity and hard hit differentials of -3 miles per hour and -9 percentage points.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into your DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top-rated four-man FanDuel stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Red Sox currently have the second-highest implied team total of the day at 6.2 runs, and all batters in this stack except Mookie Betts are on the positive side of their splits against Angels righty Parker Bridwell. Bridwell has a WHIP of 1.56 and has allowed an average of 2.60 home runs per nine innings over the past 12 months. Further, all of the stacked batters have positive Statcast data over the last 15 days:
Betts and Xander Bogaerts have Bargain Ratings of 93 percent on FanDuel, and Andrew Benintendi isn’t far behind with a Bargain Rating of 82 percent. This stack should be sufficiently chalky – Pro Subscribers can review ownership after lock using the DFS Ownership Dashboard – so, if you’re looking to be more contrarian, consider Jackie Bradley Jr. Batting seventh today, he has a .200 ISO and .331 wOBA against right-handed pitchers, and he’s also posted positive differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate over his last 13 games. He’s currently projected for just five to eight percent ownership.
On the afternoon slate, the top five-man stack on DraftKings is a straight stack of the Detroit Tigers:
The afternoon slate is projected to be lower-scoring, but the Tigers’ implied team total of 4.6 runs is still relatively mediocre. They are facing left-handed pitcher Clayton Richard, who has been an extreme ground ball pitcher over the last 12 months. His ground ball rate of 60 percent is the highest mark on the slate, and the Tigers have historically been one of the worst hitting teams against pitchers with a comparable ground ball mark:
So why the high rating for these batters? Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, and J.D. Martinez historically dominate left-handed pitchers, as evidenced by their strong wOBA and ISO differentials against southpaws:
Batters
Aaron Judge seems to homer on every slate, and his Statcast data over his last 12 games is downright scary: He’s averaged a 278-foot distance, a 99 mile per hour exit velocity, and a 60 percent hard hit rate. Batters with comparable marks have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.87 on DraftKings, and factoring in an implied team total of five-plus runs increases the Plus/Minus to a ridiculous +5.03.
Logan Morrison is tied for the most FanDuel Pro Trends with nine, and that alone has provided batters with a Plus/Minus of +3.60. Morrison has a wOBA of .386 and ISO of .321 against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, and opposing pitcher Chris Tillman has the second-worst recent distance on the slate at 223 feet.
Projected to bat leadoff for a team implied for 5.8 runs, Gregor Blanco should be a popular option for the afternoon slate. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.37 over his last 10 games on DraftKings; however, his Recent Batted Ball Luck score of -79 suggests he’s been more than a little lucky. He’s seen decreases in his distance and hard hit rates over his last seven games when compared to his 12-month averages, and he has a Bargain Rating of only two percent on DraftKings. Avoiding Blanco in Diamondbacks stacks could be a nice way to differentiate lineups without sacrificing much expected value.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
