The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate: There’s a 10-game main slate starting at 1:07 pm ET and a five-game afternoon slate starting at 3:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are four pitchers priced at $9,300 or more on DraftKings, headlined by Robbie Ray at $13,500:
That’s an enormous price tag for Ray, and only three other pitchers have matched or exceeded it this season: Clayton Kershaw (six times), Chris Sale (twice), and Max Scherzer (twice). That said, his recent results probably warrant his salary:
But it’s still odd to see a pitcher like Ray in the company of Kershaw, Sale, and Scherzer, and to get up to that level Ray has experienced a massive salary increase of $4,600 over the past month. He has a Bargain Rating of only one percent on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable Bargain Ratings and monthly salary increases have historically failed to return value (per our Trends tool):
Ray’s salary is concerning for other reasons as well. His moneyline odds of -145 are only seventh best on the day, and his opponent implied team total of 4.1 runs is the highest mark in our database among comparably priced pitchers, only 18 of whom have opponent implied totals of at least 3.5 runs. Those pitchers have stumbled with a historical Plus/Minus of -2.93 on DraftKings. Basically, if a pitcher has a Kershaw-like price tag, he better have Kershaw-like data to be successful in the long term.
Nevertheless, it’s hard to discount the upside that Ray offers on a slate with limited pitching talent. He leads the slate with a K Prediction of 8.3 and has historically dominated with a Plus/Minus of +5.46 when away from the hitter-friendly Chase Field as a member of the Diamondbacks.
Yu Darvish leads the afternoon slate in three major pitching categories: Moneyline odds (-187), opponent implied total (4.2 runs), and K Prediction (7.4). He also gets home-plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt, who has historically rewarded pitchers with a +2.02 Plus/Minus on FanDuel, where Darvish has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Darvish also has truly elite Statcast data from his last two starts, with a batted ball distance of 174 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, ground ball rate of 58 percent, and hard hit rate of 23 percent. The average distance in particular could be significant, giving him a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -37 feet. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have historically been a nice source of value on FanDuel:
On an afternoon slate largely devoid of pitching talent, Darvish should command massive ownership, which Pro subscribers can review after lock using our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Only two pitchers today boast opponent implied totals of less than four runs: Jimmy Nelson and Jacob deGrom:
Facing a potent projected Nationals lineup with a wOBA of .326 and K rate of only 23.5 percent against righties over the past 12 months, deGrom still has solid -150 moneyline odds and the fourth-highest K Prediction of the day at 7.2. He also has a distance differential of -20 feet and is almost $3,000 less than Ray on DraftKings, where he leads the slate with eight Pro Trends. While he may not match Ray in upside, he’s probably the safer choice of the two for cash games when salary is considered.
Values
Nelson takes on a Padres lineup that has been anemic against right-handed pitchers this season, ranking 29th in the league with a wOBA of .298. He also has a Bargain Rating of 89 percent on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable Bargain Ratings and opponent implied totals have historically been solid:
His K Prediction of 5.9 is middling, but he’s made up for it recently by limiting the damage on balls in play; his 15-day batted ball distance of 173 feet and exit velocity of 84 miles per hour are the top marks on the slate. He should be a popular SP2 for cash games on DraftKings.
JA Happ has been a roller coaster this season, but is coming off a start against the Mariners where he struck out eight and allowed zero runs over six innings pitched:
Today’s matchup against the White Sox is intriguing. On the one hand, he has good Vegas data: His -171 moneyline odds and opponent implied total of 4.1 runs are among the best marks of the day. On the other hand, the White Sox have crushed left-handed pitchers this season, leading the league with a .359 wOBA split. Ironically, it makes sense both to roster Happ and stack against him (but clearly not in the same lineup).
Fastballs
Buck Farmer: He has an elite matchup against the Rays, who have the second-worst strikeout rate this season against right-handed pitchers at 25.5 percent, and his K Prediction of 7.4 is second only to Ray’s. Only $5,800 on DraftKings, Farmer is comparable in salary and K Prediction to a cohort of pitchers with a Plus/Minus of +1.45 and an impressive Upside Rating of 17 percent.
J.C. Ramirez: He’s coming off an impressive outing against the Yankees, and he’s pitching at home against the Royals with a high Park Factor of 82. Home pitchers with comparable Park Factors have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.10 on FanDuel, and that’s enough to warrant consideration on a weak afternoon slate.
Several games today have double-digit odds of precipitation. Be sure to monitor weather conditions as lineup lock approaches.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Dodgers lead the main slate with an implied team total of 6.1 runs, and the majority of the stacked batters are on the positive side of their differentials against Reds righty Bronson Arroyo:
And Arroyo isn’t just any right-handed pitcher. He has allowed an average of 2.97 home runs per nine innings over the last 12 months and a batted ball distance of 221 feet over his last two starts.
Even though a Coors Field game is in the afternoon slate, its top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Texas Rangers:
Almost all of the stacked batters are hitting well right now, as only Shin-Soo Choo has negative differentials in distance and hard hit rate:
Even though two of them are right-handed, all of the stacked batters are on the positive side of their ISO splits against Mariners righty Christian Bergman. As impressive as the Statcast data is for the Rangers, Bergman’s data is equally unimpressive. His average batted ball distance of 242 feet over the last two starts is the worst mark on the slate.
Batters
Brandon Drury leads the slate with 12 DraftKings Pro Trends, many of which have to do with his recent Statcast data. He’s posted differentials of +22 feet, +7 miles per hour, and +22 percentage points over his last 11 games, and batters with comparable differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.11 on DraftKings.
The Rockies are at home for the afternoon slate, and Nolan Arenado has been raking recently with a batted ball distance of 267 feet over his last 12 games. Batters with comparable distances at Coors Field have an average Plus/Minus of +2.79 on FanDuel. Additionally, the majority of Arenado’s recent games have come on the road, so it’s not as if his distance total has been inflated by an extended stretch at Coors.
Gregory Polanco has been horrid as a fantasy producer over his last 10 games:
He has, however, posted a distance differential of +15 feet over the last 15 days, and it’s possible that he’s simply been unlucky of late, given his Recent Batted Ball Luck of +69 on DraftKings. He hit a homer on Saturday’s slate, and some more positive regression could be heading his way.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
