Sunday has a split slate: FanDuel offers a 15-game all-day slate and an eight-game main slate, both starting at 1:05 pm ET; DraftKings offers these slates and an additional seven-game afternoon slate at 4:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Sunday features a relatively strong group of pitchers, with four starters priced at $11,500 or higher on DraftKings:
Chris Archer and Carlos Carrasco headline the early slates, while Max Scherzer and Robbie Ray occupy the afternoon and all-day slates. All four pitchers are tougher to afford on DraftKings, where none of them commands a Bargain Rating greater than 23 percent.
Archer has been striking batters out at an elite rate recently, posting at least 11 strikeouts in five of his last seven games. He should have a chance at another big game in this one; the projected lineup for Oakland has a 28.3 percent strikeout rate and a slate-worst .259 splits-adjusted wOBA over the past 12 months.
His Vegas data is this matchup is predictably excellent. He leads the slate with an opponent implied team total of only 3.4 runs and is a strong favorite with -188 moneyline odds. Archer also gets to take the mound at Tropicana Field, which rewards him with a strong Park Factor of 83. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data in similarly friendly parks have historically done well on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
The one big area of concern with Archer is his recent Statcast data. He’s allowed an average batted ball distance of 240 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 44 percent over his last two starts — and those 15-day numbers are significantly worse than his 12-month averages. Archer’s Recent Batted Ball Luck Score of -91 suggests that he has been lucky to post the fantasy results he has over his last two starts. Of course, if batters rarely put the ball in play against him, the kind of contact he’s giving up matters less.
The afternoon slate requires a tough choice between two pitchers in elite recent form: Scherzer and Ray. Scherzer has been a dominant pitcher for years now, but he’s been especially dominant over his last three starts:
Even by Scherzer’s lofty standards those are ridiculous numbers, and he’s in another good spot today against the Rangers. He’s second on the slate with a K Prediction of 8.6, and his moneyline odds of -250 are impressive.
But as good as Scherzer has been, it’s hard to look past what Ray has done recently. He’s been as good as any pitcher in baseball over his last 10 starts:
He leads the slate with a K Prediction of 8.8 and is facing a projected Brewers lineup that has struck out in a whopping 31.8 percent of its at-bats against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. His Vegas data isn’t as good as Scherzer’s, but it’s still solid with -155 moneyline odds and an opponent implied team total of 3.8 runs.
What sets Ray apart is his Statcast data. He’s allowed an average batted ball distance of 193 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 34 percent over his last two starts; all of those numbers are extremely impressive for a pitcher who typically dominates with strikeouts. Scherzer is probably the safer option for cash games thanks to his moneyline odds, but Ray might have more upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at what will likely be lower ownership.
Values
It seems like a day to pay up for pitching, even among the value options. James Paxton is $9,200 on DraftKings as a -158 favorite in his matchup against the Blue Jays. He also has nice Statcast differentials over his last two starts with -16 feet, -3 mph, and -16 percentage points. Pitchers with comparable differentials and Vegas odds have historically returned value on DraftKings:
Jake Arrieta is set to take on a Colorado team that currently ranks fourth in the league in runs per game, but there’s still reason for optimism with him. He has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent on DraftKings, which makes him a major outlier among the top pitchers: No other pitcher priced above $8,500 has a DraftKings Bargain Rating greater than even 35 percent. That alone has historically provided a positive Plus/Minus for pitchers, but if we add in a comparable K Prediction (7) and moneyline odds (-178) the results are impressive:
There is currently no total on this game, so you’ll want to keep an eye on that prior to locking in Arrieta. The wind conditions can always play a factor at Wrigley field; Saturday’s game featured a Vegas total of 12.5 runs, and today’s weather is forecast to be similar to yesterday’s.
Fastballs
Carlos Carrasco: He has the second-best moneyline odds of the day at -194 and is facing a projected White Sox lineup that has a .285 wOBA over the past 12 months. His K Prediction of 7.3 is also the third-highest mark on the early slate.
Chad Green: The Yankees have yet to announce a starter for Sunday, but many believe the guy will ultimately be Green. If he does get the nod, he has some appealing data — pitchers with comparable K Predictions (7) and salaries ($5,000) have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.81 — but it’s unlikely he’ll pitch deep enough into the game to have an impact for DFS purposes:
Chad Green said he could probably give the Yankees a little more than 45 pitches if he were to start tomorrow.
— Bryan Hoch (@BryanHoch) June 10, 2017
That’s less than ideal.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. On the early slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack courtesy of the Bales Model belongs to the Houston Astros:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Astros currently lead the early slate with an implied team total of 5.5 runs. Additionally, all of the stacked batters with the exception of Jose Altuve have positive batted ball differentials over the past 15 days:
Batters with comparable distance differentials and implied team totals have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.74 on FanDuel, and opposing pitcher Jesse Chavez has allowed 1.94 home runs per nine innings over the past 12 months.
On the main slate, the top five-man unit on DraftKings is a 1-2-3-4-6 stack of the Boston Red Sox:
Facing Tigers lefty Daniel Norris, this righty-heavy stack is collectively on the beneficial side of its wOBA and ISO splits:
The Red Sox are currently implied for a whopping slate-high 5.9 runs, which is a number you don’t often see outside of Coors Field. Batters with comparable totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +0.96 on DraftKings. They’re likely to have relatively high ownership rates, which Pro subscribers can review using our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Batters
Jed Gyorko has been a quiet producer over his last 10 games:
However, his Rec BBL score of +60 suggests he’s been unlucky in his recent fantasy results. He has a distance differential of +20 feet and leads the slate with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Mallex Smith has recently been called up to replace the injured Kevin Kiermaier, making him a projected leadoff batter priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel. Comparable batters have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.66. While Smith isn’t much of a threat with his bat, he can do damage with his legs; his average of .417 steals per game is the highest on the main slate. The Rays also have an Opposing Bullpen Rating of 99, which they’ll have a chance to leverage if they can knock Jesse Hahn out of the game quickly.
On the afternoon slate, Kyle Seager continues to mash the baseball:
He’s on the wrong side of his wOBA and ISO splits against left-handed pitcher J.A. Happ, and historically he has averaged a lower Plus/Minus when facing southpaws. However, he actually has a higher Upside Rating against lefties and has historically been owned at less than three percent. Batters with comparable recent Statcast data have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.11. If Seager’s lefty ownership trend holds, he makes for an appealing GPP option.
Good luck!
News Updates
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