The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday has a 10-game main slate at 1:10 pm ET on FanDuel and an eight-game (non-Coors) main slate on DraftKings.
Pitchers
Sale
Per the MLB Ownership Dashboard, last night Clayton Kershaw was the highest-owned pitcher across all stakes, even in a Coors Field slate.
DFS users rostering stud pitchers isn’t a new thing, but it has been a little extreme so far this year. Per the MLB Trends tool, Kershaw last year led all pitchers with 10-plus starts in average DraftKings ownership; here’s the top five and their average ownership in medium-stakes guaranteed prize pools (GPPs):
- Kershaw: 21 starts, 30.8 percent ownership
- Jake Arrieta: 30 starts, 30.6 percent ownership
- Stephen Strasburg: 24 starts, 29.2 percent ownership
- Gerrit Cole: 20 starts, 27.6 percent ownership
- Noah Syndergaard: 29 starts, 27.5 percent ownership
And here are the numbers for this year:
- Chris Sale: 6 starts, 51.3 percent ownership
- Kershaw: 7 starts, 47.1 percent ownership
- Michael Pineda: 6 starts, 42.5 percent ownership
- Max Scherzer: 6 starts, 35.7 percent ownership
- Madison Bumgarner: 4 starts, 35.2 percent ownership
Those numbers will likely come down a bit, and not every main slate is the same, but the point still stands: The ‘studs’ have had a high ownership cost this year.
And it likely won’t come down today, as Sale is easily the class of the slate, leading all pitchers in salary by $2,800 on DraftKings and $2,500 on FanDuel. He’s been absolutely dominant this season, averaging a ridiculous +19.69 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 100 percent Consistency; he hasn’t had fewer than 46.0 FanDuel points in any game and hasn’t dipped below 50 since Opening Day. He faces a Twins team that ranks 16th this year with a .162 team ISO and is currently implied for just 3.3 runs — 0.5 runs less than any other team. Further, Sale’s massive 9.0 K Prediction is tops in the slate by 1.7 strikeouts.
He’s been owned in 50-plus percent of lineups in his slates this season, and today there’s an extreme dip in talent. It’s hard to overstate just how high his ownership will be: It could approach 60-70 percent in most GPPs.
Non-Sales
Other than Sale, there are only two other pitchers with opponent run implications of less than 4.0: Tyler Glasnow and Alex Cobb. Of those two, Glasnow’s 6.9 K Prediction — the third-highest mark in the slate — is far superior to Cobb’s. It says a lot about the slate that Glasnow, who has averaged a -4.37 FanDuel Plus/Minus across five starts this year, might be one of the most popular options. As mentioned often in these breakdowns lately, Vegas bettors seem to be shorting the Milwaukee Brewers. Even though they rank first in the league with a .211 team ISO, they’ve had many low run implications of late. Glasnow does have solid Statcast data: In his last game, he allowed a batted ball exit velocity of 89 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 27 percent. He’s particularly cheap at $6,200 on FanDuel, where he has an 89 percent Bargain Rating. The case for him is simple: He’s the third-cheapest pitcher on FanDuel, yet he owns the second-lowest opponent implied total and third-highest K Prediction.
Joe Biagini is notable, as he’s only $4,800 on DraftKings and faces a Tampa Bay squad that owns the highest strikeout rate this season at 25.9 percent. This will be Biagini’s first career start; he’s made 74 relief appearances out of the bullpen over the last two years. And while he stands out in our Player Models — that low price point plus a nice matchup in a Coors slate is certainly intriguing — it’s hard to get excited about a guy who will pitch a maximum of 60 pitches:
Gibbons says the pitch count for Biagini on Sunday will be a max of 60. #BlueJays
— Arash Madani (@ArashMadani) May 5, 2017
Biagini does have a respectable SO/9 rate of 9.580 over the last year, so he’s capable of racking up some Ks with a 60-pitch limit. But as bad as this slate may be in terms of pitching it’s hard to justify that low floor and lack of true upside; this is not a “Trevor Cahill at $5,000″ situation. Think in probabilities: Sure, Biagini could hit value even in 60 pitches, but what are the odds he’s going to be even a top-five pitcher? Given how top-heavy GPPs are and the fact that all non-Sale pitchers today are cheap, this may not be a +EV spot.
Also, there are some talented guys who are intriguing despite their slightly suboptimal Vegas data. Take Jose Quintana, who has been dominant in his last two starts, going for 32.4 and 31.3 DraftKings points and striking out 17 batters across 14 innings. He allowed just one run during that time, and his batted ball data is just as good, with an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 21 percent. He’s expensive at $9,800 on DraftKings but a little more affordable at $9,000 on FanDuel. The opposing Orioles are currently implied for 4.5 runs, but they do own a top-10 strikeout rate this season at 22.7 percent. A lot of their guys have negative splits against left-handed pitchers, and they’ve been the fourth-most generous team against lefties this year, per the MLB Trends tool:
Fastballs
Danny Duffy: He owns the second-highest K Prediction at 7.3 but faces a high-powered Cleveland offense currently implied for 4.3 runs; he’s been awful lately, going for -1.95 and -4.70 DraftKings points in his last two starts, but his Statcast data is a little less troubling; he’s allowed a hard hit rate of just 20 percent.
Tanner Roark: He’s a better value on FanDuel, where his $8,300 price tag comes with a 70 percent Bargain Rating; he faces a mediocre Phillies offense currently implied for 4.0 runs and has a respectable K Prediction of 6.5.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Again, the DraftKings main slate does not include the Coors Field game. Thus, it is a 1-2-3-5-6 stack of the Pittsburgh Pirates that takes the top spot in the Bales Model:
The Pirates are currently implied for a slate-high 4.6 runs and go up against Brewers righty Zach Davies, who has poor batted ball data. Over his last two games, he’s allowed an average distance of 247 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 47 percent, and a hard hit rate of 41 percent. DraftKings stack ownership will likely be fairly distributed today across a lot of teams: Currently nine of the 16 teams in the slate have run implications between 4.3 and 4.6.
On FanDuel, Coors is a factor, and it’s probably no surprise that a 1-2-3-5 Arizona stack takes the top spot:
Last night Tyler Anderson shut down the Diamondbacks, who lost 1-9 to the Rockies. Today’s Tyler — Tyler Chatwood — is less intimidating. Jake Lamb will likely remain in the cleanup spot (per the MLB Lineups page), and while he’s not included in this stack he’s definitely in a better spot against a righty: He has a .299 ISO and a .149 ISO differential over the last year against RHP. A.J. Pollock has a low .130 ISO against righties, but he’s always a candidate to swipe a base, as evidenced by his .341 SB/G rate. Yasmany Tomas has been hitting the ball the best among their projected starters, averaging a 246-foot batted ball distance, 96 MPH exit velocity, and a 52 percent hard hit rate over his last seven games.
Batters
In a slate with a clear-cut pitching stud and Coors Field, it’s likely the non-Coors high-priced batters will see the biggest drop in ownership. Freddie Freeman falls into that category, as he’s the highest-priced option at $4,500 on FanDuel among players not at Coors Field or questionable with injuries (Mike Trout and Bryce Harper). And that’s intriguing, as Freeman owns the highest ISO mark in the slate at .340 against right-handed pitchers. He’s going up against the Cardinals’ Michael Wacha, who owns a mediocre 1.488 past-year WHIP. Freeman’s Statcast data has been a little down of late — he’s averaging a 92 MPH exit velocity and 36 percent hard hit rate — but those numbers would be excellent for most other batters. He has averaged 14.25 FanDuel points on 56.5 percent Consistency against 23 righties so far this season.
I’ve discussed using weighted models to build stacks a lot recently, and one team that stands out is the Toronto Blue Jays. They’ve been awful this year — they rank 27th in the league with a .293 team wOBA — but several of their players have been hitting the ball better of late. Jose Bautista has had a down year — and he’s gone hitless over his last two games — but his Statcast data is much more encouraging. Over his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 248 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 52 percent. Steve Pearce has also made great contact of late, averaging a 239-foot batted ball distance, 95 MPH exit velocity, and a 63 percent hard hit rate over his last nine games. They face Rays righty Alex Cobb, who has induced a high number of ground balls lately, but the Blue Jays should be quite contrarian — they’re implied for 3.8 runs (the second-lowest total in the slate) — and Cobb certainly isn’t invincible. He’s allowed eight-plus hits in three of his last four starts.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
