The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday has an 11-game main slate at 1:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are not many high-priced options today; only four pitchers are above $9,000 on FanDuel, and no one is above $9,500.
Lance McCullers has been an absolute stud this season, averaging a +7.27 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his 10 starts.
He has not allowed a single run over his last four outings and has given up just 10 hits across 24 innings in that span. His Statcast data is quite elite as well: Over his last two, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 170 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 14 percent, and a hard hit rate of 32 percent. He’s facing an Orioles team with a slate-low implied run total of 3.5, and his -200 moneyline is the best mark of the day. Per our Trends tool, pitchers with similar Vegas data have historically averaged 35.92 FanDuel points and a +5.26 Plus/Minus on 63.4 percent Consistency.
And we haven’t even discussed his massive SO/9 rate over the past year, which is the best mark among pitchers today by quite a bit. As a result, he leads all options with a 7.7 K Prediction; he has a slate-high 10 Pro Trends. It’s safe to say he should be incredibly chalky, which suggests he’s in an awesome spot but also that he might be a worthy fade candidate in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). This is not a loaded pitching slate, and McCullers easily led this past Tuesday’s slate in ownership across a variety of FanDuel GPPs.
That slate included Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester, and Carlos Carrasco as well. If McCullers is the chalk in that slate — and he’s the exact same price in this one after pitching solid again — how chalky will he be in this one? (Hint: Very.)
Pro subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
The only pitcher that can rival McCullers in terms of SO/9 in this slate is Yankees righty Michael Pineda, who has been quite solid this year as well, averaging a +6.85 Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency across nine starts. Today he faces an Athletics team whose projected lineup owns a below-average past-year .299 wOBA against righties and is currently implied for 3.7 runs today. Pineda is a solid -171 moneyline favorite. He seems to be pitching well at the moment — he’s gone for 34-plus FanDuel points in each of his last five starts — but he has allowed quite a few long balls over that time. He’s given up six home runs across his last four starts, and while he has a solid 32 percent hard hit rate over his last two, he has allowed an above-average distance (214 feet) and exit velocity (91 miles per hour).
But with McCullers on the slate, we aren’t particularly worried about Pineda’s downside; we’re just concerned if he can outperform him in GPPs. Pineda does have double-digit strikeout upside — he’s done it once already this year against the Rays — and he’s facing an Oakland team that ranks fourth this season with a 24.1 percent strikeout rate. Pineda’s 7.5 K Prediction is slightly below McCullers’ mark, but he can likely outperform that if he’s rolling.
Values
Joe Ross went for 29.0 DraftKings points in his last start, striking out six batters and allowing a single earned run across eight innings pitched. That last data point is important, especially compared to another value guy like Blue Jays righty Joe Biagini, who is averaging a pitch count of 72 this season and has gone just 8.1 combined innings over his last two. In Ross’ last game, he did a great job of inducing groundballs, getting them on 57 percent of batted balls. He’s been a source of jokes lately, as he’s gotten a ridiculous amount of run support in his starts this season:
But don’t let that distract you from today’s amazing spot: He’s going against the Padres, who rank 29th this year with a putrid .283 wOBA. And that perhaps even overstates them: Their projected lineup today has a miserable .245 past-year wOBA against right-handed pitchers. And not only are they bad hitting the ball, but they also strike out a ton: They rank second in the league with a 24.6 percent strikeout rate. Just about any pitcher is in play against the Padres; Ross will likely be a popular option at just $7,800 on DraftKings and $7,500 on FanDuel.
Patrick Corbin started off the year very strong, going for 19-plus DraftKings points in four of his first six games. He’s been a bit down since then, going for -7.0 fantasy points at Coors Field and then between 10 and 16 points in his last three. And he’s not in an amazing spot today: He’s in a hitter’s park in Milwaukee and faces a Brewers squad that is currently implied for 4.6 runs. Further, Corbin has some fairly brutal recent Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 234 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 46 percent. Now the good part: He has the day’s third-highest K Prediction at 7.4 against a Brewers team that ranks third this year with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate. Corbin certainly isn’t a ‘safe’ play by any means, but he arguably has the highest upside among all pitchers not named Pineda or McCullers.
Fastballs
Andrew Triggs: He has a brutal matchup on the road against the Yankees, who rank second this season with a .341 team wOBA and are currently implied for a massive 4.9 runs. That said, Triggs has solid Statcast data over his last two and owns a top-five K Prediction today.
Matt Shoemaker: No one is going to want to pay $9,400 on DraftKings or $9,500 on FanDuel for Shoemaker with McCullers and Pineda right around him, but that means he’ll have minuscule ownership levels. He has averaged 35.4 FanDuel points over the past month.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. On DraftKings, the current highest-rated five-man stack (per player ratings in the Bales Model) belongs to the Detroit Tigers:
Ownership levels should be fairly distributed today, as eight teams are currently implied between 4.7 and 4.9 runs. The Tigers are one of those teams at 4.7 runs, and they certainly have a lot of upside against White Sox righty Miguel Gonzalez, who has been awful of late, allowing 14 runs and 21 hits across his last three starts. Alex Avila continues to pop in our Player Models thanks to his ridiculous Statcast data: Over his last 10 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 274 feet, an exit velocity of 100 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 57 percent.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated non-Tigers stack belongs to the Diamondbacks:
They are away from Chase Field but still in a hitter’s park in Milwaukee and implied for 4.5 runs. Many of their batters continue to hit the ball hard, especially first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who has averaged a batted ball distance of 250 feet, an exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 55 percent. The Diamondbacks rank fourth this season with a team ISO mark of .188; getting one of the league’s best offenses at reduced ownership is often a +EV move in tournaments.
Batters
In this section, let’s discuss some guys who might have gotten a little unlucky of late. We have a new metric to measure such thing; it’s called Recent Batted Ball Luck, and here is the definition:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
Kyle Seager, who is projected to bat fifth for the Mariners today, has done this over his past 10 days:
And yet, his Statcast data tells a different story: Over his last 14 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 237 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 46 percent. He’s on the correct side of his splits today against righty Rick Porcello, who has allowed a high 46 percent hard hit rate over his last two starts.
Khris Davis is another guy who has likely gotten a little unlucky of late, and that’s despite averaging a solid +3.09 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. His Statcast data suggests he should actually have more production than that; over his last 11, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 226 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 46 percent. As mentioned above, Pineda has allowed quite a few long balls of late, and rostering Davis and even other Oakland guys would be a very contrarian move in tournaments.
See more on finding contrarian plays using luck metrics in Bill Monighetti’s piece here.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
