The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday has a 10-game main slate at 1:07 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three of the 20 main-slate pitchers today are priced above $9,000 on FanDuel:
Two of them are household names in Jacob deGrom and Jake Arrieta; the other, Luis Severino, isn’t an established stud yet, but he’s been impressive this season and is only 23 years old. All three have similar Vegas data with opponent implied run totals of 3.8 or 3.9, and they’re all favorites. deGrom is the heaviest favorite with a -152 moneyline due to his matchup against Wily Peralta.
The big difference between them is their K Predictions: deGrom easily has the highest mark of the threesome at 8.2, whereas Arrieta and Severino are closer to average in this slate at 6.6 and 6.2. Given the similar price points for deGrom and Arrieta, it is likely that the former will be the higher-owned player. He has a superior matchup against a Brewers squad that ranks second in the league this year with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate, and Arrieta has been uncharacteristically volatile so far this season, averaging just a +0.22 FanDuel Plus/Minus. His 41 percent Consistency Rating over the last year is a full 20 percentage points lower than deGrom’s.
All three have similar Statcast data: Arrieta’s fly ball rate is a little higher lately — 42 percent versus 32 and 34 percent — but he’s allowing the lowest exit velocity — 89 miles per hour versus 92 for the other guys.
Given all of this, deGrom looks like the cash-game option and Arrieta and Severino look like high-upside pivots in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Right? Unfortunately, it’s not that simple: The Yankees’ game was postponed due to rain yesterday, and there’s currently a solid chance of precipitation again today (per our MLB Lineups page):
As such, ownership may not be so linear. Given the Yankees, 2:05 pm ET start time, you may have to make a decision on the game before news comes out. Make sure to monitor the latest updates via our MLB News page.
Values
The pitcher with the highest K Prediction in the slate is Drew Pomeranz at 8.4. He owns one of the highest SO/9 rates in the slate over the past year and faces a Rays team that ranks first in the league by quite a bit with a 26.6 percent strikeout rate. He has a lot of upside, but his last game showed his downside as well: He finished with exactly zero FanDuel points against the Brewers, who hit two home runs and put up six earned runs against him in four innings. Pomeranz managed two strikeouts in that game. You might expect Pomeranz’s Statcast data to be bad due to that game, but that’s actually not the case: Over his last two outings, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 197 feet and an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour. The most dangerous aspect of Pomeranz’s outlook today is the weather in Boston, but if the weather clears he has perhaps the highest upside of any pitcher today. Per our Trends tool, very few pitchers in Pom’s salary range have had K Predictions as high as his:
Jose Quintana‘s K Prediction of 5.5 is incredibly mediocre in this slate (and any slate), but he has a good matchup against a Padres squad that ranks 28th in the league this year with a .289 team wOBA. They’ve been even worse against left-handed pitchers over the last year; today’s projected lineup owns a low .245 wOBA against lefties. Quintana thus has a lot of safety: He’s the largest favorite on the slate at -183. FanDuel pitchers with similar moneylines have historically done quite well . . .
. . . even with similar low K Predictions:
Further, Quintana boasts excellent Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 186 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 17 percent. There are pitchers with higher upside for GPPs, but Quintana is certainly a fine cash-game option, especially on FanDuel, where his $8,700 price tag comes with a 92 percent Bargain Rating.
Fastballs
Chris Young: He will likely pop in Player Models, as he’s just $5,000 on DraftKings and owns a 6.7 K Prediction; it’s unclear if he’ll be on a pitch count in his second start of the year, but he was in the 65-70 range last game.
Trevor Bauer: He hasn’t been amazing this season, averaging a -1.84 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 50 percent Consistency, but his best game was against these very Twins; he has brutal recent Statcast data (94 MPH exit velocity, for example), but he also has a 6.6 K Prediction and is cheap at $7,200.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated five-man stack in the Bales Model today belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
While the Blue Jays aren’t very good against left-handed pitchers — they own the third-worst past-year wOBA in the slate at .262 — the lefty they’re facing is Ariel Miranda, who got beat up by the Phillies his last time out, allowing two home runs and eight earned runs across just 3.1 innings. His Statcast data isn’t great as a result: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 221 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 44 percent. Despite the Blue Jays’ struggles against lefties, they’re currently implied for a high 5.0 runs. The question of the day is this: Who’s worse — the Jays versus lefties or Miranda versus anyone?
On FanDuel, the highest-rated non-Toronto stack belongs to the Chicago White Sox:
The White Sox don’t often have a slate’s highest total, but they do today with 5.3 implied runs against the Padres, whose starting pitcher, righty Jered Weaver, has been really bad this season:
Weaver has allowed 17 runs (12 earned) across his last two games with seven innings pitched. That’s incredibly brutal, and his Statcast data isn’t much better: Over that same time frame, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 226 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 45 percent. Right-handed bats in this game own a Park Factor of 65, which is the second-best mark behind lefties at Yankee Stadium. Jose Abreu is currently one of the top FanDuel batters in the Bales Model, and that’s despite his negative splits against righties. His Statcast data has been impressive lately: Over his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 224 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 45 percent.
Batters
Jay Bruce has been a little volatile of late . . .
. . . but it’s hard not to mention him against a righty, especially Peralta, who has given up seven home runs over his last five games. Bruce owns a ridiculous .305 ISO against right-handed pitchers, and his Statcast data of late is even more ridiculous. Over his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 242 feet, an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 50 percent, and a hard hit rate of 57 percent. He’s definitely a candidate to go yard today.
Over his last 10 games, Chris Davis has averaged a -0.88 DraftKings Plus/Minus on just 20 percent Consistency. That said, he hit one out last night and faces Young, who (again) allowed four earned runs and seven hits in three innings pitched in his first start last week. Young owns the highest HR/9 mark in the slate at 2.325 over the past year. Davis has one of the highest Recent Batted Ball Luck marks of the slate; that new metric is defined below:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
Over his last 12 games, Davis has averaged a distance of 218 feet and a hard hit rate of 45 percent. In the game with the best Weather Rating of the slate, Davis could continue to see some positive regression.
In terms of Statcast data, Mike Fiers has been perhaps the worst pitcher in today’s slate:
Further, he owns one of the highest HR/9 allowed marks at 1.863 over the past year. He could struggle against Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, both of whom own ISO marks of at least .300 against righties. If this game plays, it could get ugly.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
