The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s daily fantasy slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday has a 10-game main slate at 1:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers today — Noah Syndergaard, Dallas Keuchel, and Chris Archer — are $1,200 and $1,300 more expensive than the rest of the player pool on DraftKings and FanDuel:
First, let’s address the elephant in the room: Syndergaard was scratched from his last scheduled start this past Thursday due to biceps discomfort, and this game has a high chance of precipitation (per the MLB Lineups page). I’m not a doctor, but I do know that arm issues are problematic for a pitcher, especially one going against a high-powered Nationals offense that ranks first in the league with a .358 team wOBA. Vegas doesn’t seem worried about it — the Nationals are currently implied for just 3.6 runs, and Thor is a -120 moneyline favorite — but $11,400 and $12,300 are hefty price tags, given the matchup, weather, and health uncertainty.
Comparing and contrasting the other two options in Keuchel and Archer, you’ll find completely different pitchers. Just take their average velocity for example: Keuchel is at 88.7 miles per hour over the last year, and Archer is at 94.5. The former has induced ground balls at a ridiculous 59 percent clip; the latter is at 48 percent. The former has a low past-year SO/9 rate of 7.592; the latter is in double digits at 10.03. Despite their similar price tags and perhaps similar popularity today, they’re quite different.
Keuchel will likely be the popular cash-game option, as he’s facing an Oakland team currently implied for a slate-low 3.3 runs, and he’s a heavy -203 moneyline favorite. FanDuel pitchers with opponent run totals no higher than 3.5 and and moneylines above -200 have historically averaged 41.02 fantasy points and a +6.85 Plus/Minus with a 68.1 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool):
Further, whereas Archer has been up and down this year, averaging a +1.79 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 50 percent Consistency, Keuchel has done this:
As you might expect with those results, his Statcast data is absolutely elite of late: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 171 feet and an average air time of only 2.33 seconds. The issue with Keuch compared to other high-priced studs is always his low strikeout rate. However, our Player Models suggest that’s less of an issue today: He’s facing an Oakland team that ranks fourth in the league with a 24.3 percent strikeout rate this year, which is why Keuch has a very respectable 7.5 K Prediction today — the third-highest mark in the slate and only 0.3 behind Archer’s. Keuchel also has the benefit of having Hunter Wendelstedt behind home plate, who has historically added 1.9 DraftKings points above expectations to pitchers. Here’s the main point: People will likely consider Keuch the cash-game play and Archer the high-upside guy for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs); why isn’t Keuch both?
Of course, I should mention that Archer is facing a Blue Jays team that ranks 28th this season with a .284 team wOBA. His Statcast data is really bad — he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 240 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 57 percent, and a hard hit rate of 45 percent — but it may not matter against a struggling Toronto squad.
Values
There are typically two paths to take in the value section: Selecting a ‘safe’ option or one with high upside. Unfortunately, that first path may not exist in this slate. Mike Leake would have been a nice option — he’s facing a Reds team currently implied for just 3.7 runs — but the Cardinals game was postponed yesterday due to rain, and the weather looks fairly wet again today in St. Louis:
Thus, it makes sense to go the high-upside route, and Joe Ross and Michael Foltynewicz have high K Predictions of 7.1 and 6.8. Ross is particularly cheap on FanDuel, where his $6,200 price tag comes with an 89 percent Bargain Rating. Further, he’s facing a Mets team that is currently implied for 3.9 runs and ranks 25th this season with a .294 team wOBA. He wasn’t great in his last outing — he scored just 5.0 FanDuel points in 4.2 innings pitched — but that was at Coors Field.
Folty has a brutal matchup against a Milwaukee team that ranks first in the league by a mile this year with a .229 team ISO. The Brewers are currently implied for 4.6 runs in a pick’em game. That said, Folty definitely has intriguing upside for GPPs, because as powerful as the Brewers are they also strike out a ton: They rank second in the league this season with a 25.7 percent strikeout rate. Folty went for 49.0 FanDuel points and nine strikeouts in his last start, and he has encouraging recent Statcast data, including a 196-foot batted ball distance allowed and a 20 percent hard hit rate allowed. This is not a particularly strong pitching cohort today, especially with Thor’s uncertainty. Taking a guy with a high strikeout prediction and opponent run total may not be a bad idea for GPPs.
Fastball
Miguel Gonzalez: He’s gone for 44 and 49 FanDuel points over his last two starts, and he boasts the best Statcast data in the slate over that time, allowing an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 16 percent
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. One of the highest-rated five-man DraftKings stacks (using player ratings in the Pro Bales Model as the guide) is a 1-2-3-4-5 straight stack of the Cleveland Indians:
Make sure to monitor the weather for this game. If it plays, the Indians will almost certainly be one of the most popular stacks, as they’re currently implied for a slate-high 5.4 runs. They face Seattle righty Chase De Jong, who owns the second-worst HR/9 rate in the slate at 2.143. He’s gotten only 4.2 innings of work this season so far, but his early Statcast data is bad: During that time, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 247 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 63 percent. This stack includes the first five batters, but Jason Kipnis, who is projected to bat sixth, is also an option: Over his first seven games of the season, he’s averaged a fly ball rate of 58 percent.
On FanDuel, one of the highest-rated four-man stacks is a spread-out Royals stack:
The Royals own the highest FanDuel Team Value Rating, which is defined as thus:
A 0 to 100 grade showing a team’s historical value based on their live implied runs and collective salaries on a given DFS site
Of the nine guys in their projected lineup, only two players — Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain — are priced at $3,000 or higher. The combined salary of the stack above is just $11,100, which means that it is quite easy to fit in a Royals stack and also roster a stud pitcher and four other stud bats. They face Minnesota righty Phil Hughes, who owns an awful 1.653 past-year WHIP and the third-highest HR/9 allowed rate of 2.071.
Batters
Freddie Freeman is not a mystery at this point, but it’s hard to ignore this type of production:
Over that 15-game sample, he’s failed to score a fantasy point just once. He’s always in play against right-handed pitchers, as he owns a .441 wOBA and a .333 ISO against them over the past year. He continues to crush the ball as well: Over his last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 241 feet and an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour. The Braves are currently implied for 4.6 runs in one of the few safe-weather games today, and Freeman will likely yet again be one of the most popular cash-game options in the slate.
If you want to roster hitters who have been unlucky, look at the Blue Jays, many of whom have high marks in Recent Batted Ball Luck . . .
. . . which is a new Labs metric defined below:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days.
Take Russell Martin, for example. Over his last nine games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 249 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 40 percent. That’s better than what we’ve seen from Eric Thames, who has put up one of the more surprising offensive seasons in recent memory. The Blue Jays are in a tough spot against Archer, but (again) he’s posted awful Statcast data lately and is coming off a game in which he allowed three home runs and five earned runs. The Blue Jays are currently implied for just 3.7 runs, and Archer could dominate them, but the data suggests they’ve been unlucky and Archer has been bad. Stacking them at very low ownership doesn’t seem like the worst idea in the world. Pro subscribers can review ownership trends across stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
