The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a 15-game main slate starting at 3:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is very light on stud pitchers, with only three starters on DraftKings owning salaries of at least $9,300:
Making matters worse, Robbie Ray and Gio Gonzalez will almost undoubtedly be on some sort of pitch count. Both of their teams have already secured their playoff positions and will likely be looking to give their guys a tune up before the postseason. With not a single thing left to be decided on the final day of the regular season – the divisions, wild cards, and home-field advantage are all set in stone for both leagues – it’s going to be tough to gauge each team’s motivation on today’s slate.
Johnny Cueto is the only stud option pitching for a non-playoff team, and calling him a ‘stud’ is a bit of a stretch. He hasn’t been very effective recently, failing to meet value in seven of his last 10 starts:
However, he has an excellent matchup today against the San Diego Padres, who have historically rewarded pitchers with a higher Plus/Minus than any other team in the league. Their projected lineup has a .283 wOBA and 29.3 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – both are the worst marks on the slate – and their implied team total of 3.7 runs is the lowest among today’s teams. Cueto also has a K Prediction of 7.0, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and opponent implied team totals have historically exceeded value on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
Pitching at home in San Francisco should be another benefit to Cueto. He’s rewarded with the second-highest Park Factor on the slate at 93, and factoring a comparable Park Factor into the above trend increases the historical Plus/Minus to +1.73.
Cueto’s Statcast data from his two most recent starts is not very good, posting increases in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate compared to his 12-month averages, but he has thrown an average of 103 pitches per start over that time frame. On a day where not many pitchers are guaranteed to stick around for an extended period of time, that definitely increases his value. He will likely be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate, which Pro subscribers can review using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
Mike Montgomery has alternated between the rotation and the bullpen as a member of the Cubs, but he’s been a consistent producer when given a chance as a starter. His 69 percent Consistency Rating over the past 12 months is second only to Gonzalez’s on today’s slate, and his Upside Rating of 23 percent is first among all pitchers with at least five starts. He’s currently the largest favorite of the day with -174 moneyline odds at just $6,600 on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable salaries and odds have historically been solid values:
Montgomery is in a similar situation today to his last start on September 19: He had spent most of his time leading up to the start in the bullpen, but he was allowed to throw 81 pitches en route to 26.3 DraftKings points and a +13.58 Plus/Minus. As someone who routinely throws multiple innings in relief, he should be more stretched out than a typical reliever making a spot start.
Nick Pivetta has averaged 23.90 DraftKings points over his last two starts, thanks in part to excellent underlying Statcast data. His average distance of 184 feet represents a differential of -33 feet compared to his 12-month average, and pitchers with comparable differentials have historically exceeded expectations:
He’s a slight favorite against the Mets today with -119 moneyline odds, and his K Prediction of 5.9 is actually the 10th highest mark on the slate. At just $6,900, he likely represents one of the safer options on a day with quite a bit of uncertainty.
James Paxton has been limited since coming off the disabled list, but in terms of pure talent he’s one of the top arms available. He did increase his pitch count to 82 in his most recent start, so it’s possible he could take another step forward today against the Los Angeles Angels. He has an opponent implied team total of 4.2 runs and moneyline odds of -114, and his K Prediction of 6.8 ranks fifth on the slate. He’s one of the few pitchers who is actually a better value on DraftKings than on FanDuel, owning a Bargain Rating of 84 percent on the former site, and pitching in Los Angeles also rewards him with a Park Factor of 84.
Finally, Noah Syndergaard is slated to pitch for the Mets today, but he’s expected to throw around 25 pitches. Even a pitcher of his caliber can’t do enough damage in that short period of time. Despite the low salary, he’s unplayable today.
Fastballs
Jordan Montgomery: He’s turned in back-to-back excellent starts, posting an average Plus/Minus of +19.53 on FanDuel. His K Prediction of 6.7 ranks sixth among today’s starters against the Toronto Blue Jays, and the cold weather in New York also results in a Weather Rating of 81.
Anibal Sanchez: He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight contests and is facing a Twins team that could be looking to get their regulars some rest before facing the Yankees in the AL Wild Card game. Sanchez has averaged 106 pitches per game over his last two outings, which is tied for the top mark on today’s slate. This game does lead the slate with a 39 percent chance of precipitation, so make sure to monitor the weather conditions prior to lineup lock.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Texas Rangers:
The Rangers’ current implied team total of 5.5 runs is the top mark on the slate. That will likely change when the total for the Coors Field game gets posted, but the Rangers could arguably still present more value given their current salaries. This Rangers stack costs approximately $3,000 less than the top Dodgers stack and $6,500 than the top Rockies stack; the Rangers batters will likely command lower ownership as well. They’re set to face Oakland right-hander Daniel Mengden, who’s in poor recent form with an average distance of 232 feet over his last two starts. Facing a right-handed pitcher also puts most of the stacked batters on the positive side of their batting splits:
Joey Gallo has hit 40 home runs this season, and he’s priced all the way down at $3,500 on DraftKings. His Statcast data over his last 11 games is excellent, with an average distance of 254 feet, exit velocity of 99 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 55 percent. While that kind of Statcast data is expected for Gallo, it’s a little more surprising to see for projected No. 9 hitter Drew Robinson. He’s posted a distance differential of +45 feet over his last nine games and is priced at only $2,400.
FantasyDraft allows you to stack up to six batters from the same team, and the top six-man Coors Field stack belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers are facing Rockies left-hander Tyler Anderson, who has allowed a dreadful average of 1.72 home runs per nine innings over the last 12 months. The Dodgers have a group of batters in solid recent form, but none have been better recently than Logan Forsythe. He’s posted an average distance of +39 feet over his last 11 games and has hit lefties to the tune of a .393 wOBA and .161 ISO over the past 12 months. Stacking the Dodgers will be likely be very chalky, but avoiding some of their more prominent hitters like Cody Bellinger will increase the odds of having a contrarian lineup. You can review the ownership dynamics of a particular stack using the new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Batters
Giancarlo Stanton is priced as the most-expensive hitter on the slate, and he has a matchup against Braves left-handed pitcher Max Fried today. He has ridiculous numbers against lefties over the past 12 months (.490 wOBA and .455 ISO), and the Marlins are implied for 5.0 runs. He has a historical Plus/Minus of +4.94 when implied for a similar total against a lefty.
Three players have 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings today: Justin Turner, Robinson, and Phillies catcher Jorge Alfaro. Alfaro is currently questionable after leaving Saturday’s game early, but if he plays, he should be owned at a fraction of the ownership of the other two players. He’s posted distance and hard hit differentials of +44 feet and +12 percentage points over his last nine games, and he has a wOBA of .459 and ISO of .279 against righties over the past 12 months.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our MLB news blurbs:
