The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate: There’s an eight-game DraftKings and seven-game FanDuel main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and a five-game DraftKings and six-game FanDuel afternoon slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slates feature a nice group of high-end pitchers to choose from, with four owning a salary of at least $9,300 on FanDuel:
- Aaron Nola (R) $11,000, PHI vs. CHC
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $10,700, CLE vs. TB
- Noah Syndergaard (R) $9,700, NYM @ SF
- Walker Buehler (R) $9,300, LAD vs. ARI
Nola is the most expensive pitcher on both FanDuel and DraftKings and is the only stud pitcher available on the main slate. He may not get the same love as Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer in the National League, but he’s been arguably just as impressive this season: He’s pitched to a 2.10 ERA and a 9.05 K/9 and owns MLB’s fifth-best pitching WAR. Nola has been particularly impressive from a Statcast perspective over his past two starts, limiting his opponents to an average distance of 184 feet and a hard-hit rate of 19%.
Unfortunately, Nola has a brutal matchup vs. the Cubs. Their projected lineup has averaged a wOBA of .331 and a strikeout rate of just 21.7% against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Nola’s resulting marks are pretty mediocre: 3.9 opponent implied team total, -148 moneyline odds and a K Prediction of 6.1. Nola still has appeal given the pedestrian pitching options on the main slate, but he carries more risk than usual.
Carrasco has been lights-out since the All-Star break, owning a 1.90 ERA and an 11.42 K/9. He’ll look to keep that going at home against the Tampa Bay Rays, whose projected lineup has struggled to a 25.5% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. Carlos leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 7.9.
Carrasco is also in good recent Statcast form, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -8 feet. Historically, pitchers with a comparable distance differential and K Prediction have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.14 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). He has arguably the highest ceiling of all pitchers, and his $10,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a solid 48% Bargain Rating.
Syndergaard has struggled recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.51 on FanDuel over his past 10 starts. That said, his Statcast data from his past two is actually pretty encouraging: 184-foot average distance, 86 mile per hour exit velocity, 18% hard hit rate. If he keeps generating that kind of weak contact, the fantasy production should inevitably follow.
He’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the San Francisco Giants, who have been abysmal offensively for the past month. They’ve averaged just 3.22 runs per game over their past 27 games, and they managed just two runs over six innings against Syndergaard on Aug. 22. Their projected lineup has predictably struggled vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, averaging a .257 wOBA and 25.6% strikeout rate. He should be the chalk option for cash games.
Buehler may be the least established of the stud pitchers, but he has been extremely impressive since returning to the major leagues on July 13. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.51 on FanDuel over his past eight starts and has 52 strikeouts in 46 innings.
His current matchup vs. the Diamondbacks is middling, but Vegas is still showing Buehler a lot of respect: He leads all pitchers with both an opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs and a distance differential of -36 feet over his past two starts. Pitchers with comparable distance differentials and opponent implied team totals have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.53 on FanDuel.
Values
Lance Lynn is toeing the rubber for the Yankees in a nice spot vs. the Detroit Tigers, whose implied team total of 3.6 runs is the lowest mark on the main slate. Lynn also leads all pitchers with moneyline odds of -224. Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.16 on FanDuel. Lynn also leads all pitchers on the main slate with a K Prediction of 6.3 and has overperformed his 12-month average distance over his past two starts.
Chris Stratton is opposing Syndergaard in San Francisco, and the Mets have been almost as anemic offensively as the Giants this season. Stratton has been impressive over his past two outings, allowing just two earned runs over 14.1 innings. His Statcast data has also been equally impressive. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of just 193 feet, which represents a decrease of -23 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He looks like a nice value on DraftKings, where his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fastballs
Luke Weaver: He was demoted to the bullpen recently, but he has pitched much better, allowing just one run over four innings with some impressive Statcast numbers. He’s a risky option in a spot start against the Reds given his potential pitch count limitations, but he has upside at his current salary.
Brian Johnson: He’s a solid -174 favorite vs. the Chicago White Sox, and his opponent implied team total of 4.1 runs is the fourth-lowest mark on the main slate. He’s priced at just $5,800 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
- 1. Matt Carpenter (L)
- 2. Yadier Molina (R)
- 3. Jose Martinez (R)
- 4. Marcel Ozuna (R)
- 5. Paul DeJong (R)
Total Salary: $21,700
The Cardinals’ implied 4.8 runs is just the fifth-highest mark on the main slate, but they have a lot going for them. They’re taking on Reds right-hander Anthony Desclafani, who has allowed a HR/9 of 2.17 on the road this season. He also enters today’s contest in relatively poor recent form, underperforming his 12-month average distance over his past two contests.
Carpenter has continued to destroy right-handed pitchers since the All-Star break, posting a .434 wOBA while clubbing 10 HRs. His Statcast data from the past 15 days is impressive,especially his 96 miles per hour average exit velocity and 54% hard-hit rate.
On the afternoon slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
- 1. Ronald Acuna (R)
- 2. Ender Inciarte (L)
- 3. Freddie Freeman (L)
- 5. Johan Camargo (S)
Total Salary: $14,800
The Braves are only available on FanDuel, where their implied team total of 4.7 runs and Team Value Rating of 70 rank second on the slate. They’re facing Pirates right-hander Nick Kingham, who has pitched to a 5.26 FIP through his first 64.0 innings at the MLB level. The Braves are collectively in good recent form, with each of the stacked batters owning a positive distance differential over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
J.T. Riddle is expected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Marlins and enters today’s contest in elite recent form. He’s posted an average distance of 253 feet over his past 10 games, which represents an increase of +53 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He’s yet to turn his excellent Statcast profile into fantasy production, but good things could be on the horizon: Leadoff hitters with comparable distance differentials have historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.28 on FanDuel. He looks like one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $2,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
The Royals could be an intriguing stack today for those looking to pay up at pitcher. Their implied team total of 4.9 runs is tied for third on the main slate, but their Team Value Rating of 73 is actually tied for first on DraftKings. Their top batter is projected leadoff hitter Whit Merrifield, who has crushed the baseball over the past 15 days. He’s posted an average distance of 246 feet, which represents an increase of +27 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Andrew McCutchen doesn’t appear to have a lot left in the tank, which is why the Yankees were able to acquire him on the cheap. That said, he’s still been able to get the job done against left-handed pitching. He owns a .352 wOBA and .178 ISO against southpaws in 2018, and he’ll be facing Tigers left-hander Matt Boyd at the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. He’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup for a New York team that has an implied run total of 5.5.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: J.T. Riddle
Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
