The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday offers an 11-game main slate that begins at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Note: Coors Field is only included on the DraftKings main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings, there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Corey Kluber (R) $12,000, CLE @ DET – J. Zimmerman (R)
- Jose Berrios (R) $10,800, MIN @ BOS – N. Eovaldi (R)
- Lance McCullers (R) $10,200, HOU vs. TEX – M. Minor (L)
Kluber checks in with the third-largest moneyline odds on the slate (-256) and faces a Tigers team implied for a slate-low 3.0 runs. However, the projected Detroit lineup doesn’t strike out much against righties (22.3% strikeout rate over the past 12 months), even with a subpar .294 weighted on-base average (wOBA) within the same time frame. Kluber’s 7.2 K Prediction is on the low-end, his second-lowest of the season, but he has dominated over the past two seasons when the Indians are at least -200 moneyline favorites. Per our MLB Trends tool, he’s posted 27.31 DraftKings points per game, a +5.94 average Plus/Minus, and a 78.3% Consistency Rating.
The issue with Kluber could be his recent form. In his last start, he allowed a batted-ball distance of 244 feet and a fly-ball rate of 47%. His Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) is bottom-five on the slate, so while Kluber has massive upside he might actually be a risk in cash games.
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Berrios has a brutal matchup against a Red Sox team that ranks first in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season (FanGraphs), evidenced by his low +126 moneyline odds. Another drawback with Berrios is his potential lack of price-adjusted upside (5.7 K Prediction) against this projected Boston lineup with a low 20.9% strikeout rating and terrifying .343 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Pitchers with similar salaries and K Predictions have historically failed to reach salary-based expectations over half the time with a -1.46 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 48.4% Consistency Rating.
McCullers has an excellent upside matchup against the Rangers, whose projected lineup owns a subpar 28.0% strikeout rate, but they still generate decent contact against righties with a .323 wOBA over the past 12 months. Furthermore, the Astros are -270 moneyline favorites, and the Rangers own a paltry, 3.2-run implied total. McCullers has peculiar recent Statcast data, to say the least. Over his last two starts, he has yielded a 198-foot batted ball distance and 35% fly-ball rate, but his 50% hard-hit rate is fifth-highest on the slate.
Values
Luis Castillo is in play at just $6,400 on DraftKings as a pure value play. The Reds are -124 moneyline favorites, but the Phillies are implied for 4.6 runs. He’s tied for the slate lead with a healthy 7.2 K Prediction, and the matchup is also appealing, as Philadelphia’s projected lineup has a 28.7% strikeout rate to right-handed pitching over the past year. Rostering Castillo doesn’t come without risk — he’s allowed a 98-mph exit velocity and 64% hard-hit rate over his past two starts — but the upside may be worth it, given his insanely low price tag.
Fastballs
J.A Happ: He could end up as the slate’s chalkiest pitcher in his Yankees debut, but his high ownership may actually be warranted, as the Yankees are absurd -350 moneyline favorites against a Royals team that ranks 24th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Happ’s 7.0 K Prediction is the fourth-highest mark on the slate, but he costs just $9,200 on DraftKings and $8,300 on FanDuel. He makes for a better play on FanDuel, where he has an 82% Bargain Rating, and his 10.32 SO/9 over the past 12 months trails only Ross Stripling for the slate lead.
German Marquez: Even at Coors Field, he could make sense at just $5,700 on DraftKings with an 87% Bargain Rating. The Rockies will take on a projected Oakland lineup that struggles to hit right-handed pitching, their 32.2% strikeout rate and .265 wOBA are easily slate-worst marks. Because of his price, the 6.1 K Prediction is solid enough to consider the chance of him hitting value even in a brutal pitching environment.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Yankees, whose implied total of 6.0 runs trails only that of the Rockies:
- Gardner (L) (1)
- Stanton (R) (2)
- Gregorius (L) (3)
- Hicks (S) (4)
- Torres (R) (5)
Total Salary: $23,800
With a top-two .343 wOBA, the Yankees have smashed right-handed pitching over the last year, and Royals pitcher Burch Smith can be susceptible to the long ball with a slate-high 1.77 HR/9.
The usual subjects for New York haven’t hit exceedingly well lately, but Giancarlo Stanton will likely be popular due to their high implied total and he’s been crushing the ball as of late with a 227-foot average distance 94-mph exit velocity over the past 15 days. Gleyber Torres is interesting in the No.5 position, generating a ton of hard contact, including a 95-mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate over his past three games.
With no Coors Field on FanDuel’s main slate, one of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Bales Model belongs to the Astros, who are implied for a healthy 5.4 runs:
- Springer (R) (1)
- Bregman (R) (2)
- Gurriel (R) (3)
- Reddick (L) (5)
Three batters in this stack own 93% or higher FanDuel Bargain Ratings, so unsurprisingly, the Astros own the highest Team Value Rating on the slate.
Houston is expectting 95-degree heat, which could be favorable toward bats from both teams, but Rangers’ lefty Mike Minor could be a juicy matchup allowing a below-average 1.41 HR/9 over the past year. Projected to bat third, George Springer could be the player most likely to take advantage with a batted ball distance of 223 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and hard-hit rate of 46%. Alex Bregman has an elite .436 wOBA and .318 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months.
Other Batters
Khris Davis at Coors Field? Yes, please. He’s $5,800 on DraftKings, but he should probably be a priority in both cash games and guaranteed prize pools, sporting a NSFW batted ball distance of 272 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph, and hard-hit rate of 56%. Projected to bat leadoff for the same team, Nick Martini will probably be the chalk at just $3,400, as he has impressive Statcast data in his own right in a small sample.
In the same game, Nolan Arenado and Ian Desmond could be popular stacking options, but both players are on the wrong side of their dramatic batting splits. Their 6.4 implied run total leads the DraftKings main slate, mostly because Frankie Montas is terrible. His 1.43 WHIP is bottom-four today and his 5.75 SO/9 is the worst mark of the day.
Mookie Betts comes in as the highest-rated batter in our models, with a massive 41.8 ceiling projection against Berrios and the Twins. Betts has impressive Statcast differentials in comparison to his long-term averages, in particular, his 58% hard-hit rate which is 17 percentage points higher than over the past year. If targeting other Red Sox batters, you could do worse than J.D. Martinez. He absolutely abuses right-handed pitching with a .447 wOBA and .391 ISO over the last 12 months.
Speaking of splits, Adam Eaton is leading off for the Nats, and he’s on the right side of massive wOBA and ISO differentials. He’s a strong value option on FanDuel especially with a 99% Bargain Rating, taking on Marlins pitcher Jose Urena and his 232-foot batted ball distance allowed paired with a 94-mph exit velocity over his last two starts.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: J.A. Happ
Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro – USA TODAY Sports
