The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and Predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate: There’s an 11-game main slate starting at 1:07 p.m. ET and a three-game afternoon slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Update: Royals SP Jakob Junis has been scratched. Also, Red Sox OF J.D. Martinez will have the day off for rest.
Pitchers
Studs
Sunday’s slates are relatively light on elite pitchers, but there are still four options with a salary above $9,000 on FanDuel:
- Zack Greinke ($11,000)
- Dallas Keuchel ($9,600)
- Rick Porcello ($9,500)
- Madison Bumgarner ($9,2000)
Greinke is the most-expensive pitcher on FanDuel and has one of the best matchups of the day against the San Diego Padres. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .290 wOBA and 27.0% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Greinke’s resulting opponent implied team total of 3.1 runs is tied for the top mark on the slate. He’s also a substantial -193 favorite, and his K Prediction of 7.1 is the third-highest mark among today’s pitchers.
Additionally, Greinke enters today’s contest in good recent form. He’s limited opponents to an average distance of 200 feet, which represents a decrease of -15 feet compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.28 and a Consistency Rating of 61.7% on FanDuel (per the Trends tool). He should be the highest-owned pitcher on the afternoon slate.
On the main slate, it’s hard to discount the incredible Vegas data for Dallas Keuchel. He’s a -300 favorite vs. the Chicago White Sox, and there have been only 17 favorites that large this season. Those pitchers have averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.98 and a Consistency Rating of 76.5% on FanDuel but have been owned at a staggering 44.4% rate.
What separates Keuchel from some of the top pitchers in this sample is his mediocre K Prediction of 5.2. Given his likely ownership, it could make sense to consider fading him in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Rick Porcello is also available on the main slate but looks like a worse version of Keuchel. He has a comparably low K Prediction of 5.4, and his moneyline odds (-230) and opponent implied team total (3.8 runs) are both considerable lower. If you are going to fade Keuchel, Porcello doesn’t seem like the ideal candidate.
Madison Bumgarner rounds out the stud group and has started to look like his former self. He’s tallied 21 strikeouts and allowed just two earned runs over his past three starts, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +15.42. His Statcast data from his past two starts is also impressive, particularly his hard hit rate of 25%. He has been priced up aggressively, especially on DraftKings at $11,000, but it’s nice to see that Bumgarner can still get the job done.
Unfortunately, he has a difficult matchup today vs. the Cardinals. Their projected lineup owns a .319 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months, but Bumgarner still owns solid marks in both moneyline odds (-136) and opponent implied team total (3.5 runs). He does benefit from facing them in San Francisco, which rewards Bumgarner with a slate-high Park Factor of 93. He has historically dominated at home, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.19 on FanDuel.
Values
Jon Lester is one of the most interesting options on today’s slate. He’s pitched to a sparkling 2.25 ERA this season, but his advanced metrics suggest that’s a bit of a farce. Both his FIP and xFIP are significantly higher than his ERA, and he’s averaging a career-low K/9 of 7.11. He could be a prime candidate for regression, but his recent Statcast data makes things a bit murkier. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 197 feet, exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 23%, all of which represent significant decreases compared to his 12-month averages. It’s possible that his advanced numbers aren’t accounting for the fact that batters are making really weak contact against him, similar to Keuchel in his prime.
Pitching for the Cubs also rewards Lester with solid -150 moneyline odds, and pitchers with comparable Statcast differentials and odds have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +2.10 on DraftKings. His six Pro Trends are second only to Keuchel among pitchers on the main slate.
Domingo German has posted an elite K/9 of 11.43 over the past 12 months and leads all pitchers on the main slate with a K Prediction of 7.5. Unfortunately, that’s really all that German has going for him: His opponent implied team total of 4.3 runs is pedestrian, and he’s posted positive distance and hard hit differentials over his past three starts. That said, he could still make some sense in GPPs given his strikeout upside.
Jack Flaherty is a slight underdog against Bumgarner and the Giants but could still be an interesting option on the afternoon slate. He owns a K Prediction of 7.9 and a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -16 feet; pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.90 on DraftKings.
Fastballs
Nathan Eovaldi: He has an awesome matchup against the New York Mets, who have been embarrassingly bad on offense since the beginning of May. Pitchers have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.30 on DraftKings against the Mets over that time frame, which is the third-best mark in the league. Eovaldi also enters this contest in decent recent form, owning a distance differential of -8 feet over his past two starts.
Jake Odorizzi: He’s racked up 17 strikeouts over his past two starts, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +10.96 on DraftKings. His Statcast data from those starts paints a different picture – he’s allowed an average distance of 244 feet and exit velocity of 94 miles per hour – but that doesn’t matter as much if he continues to pile up strikeouts. He has a chance to post another big K number against the Orioles, who own the sixth-highest strikeout rate against righties this season.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On DraftKings, the top five-man stack on the main slate (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
- Betts (R)
- Benintendi (L)
- Martinez (R)
- Moreland (L)
- Leon (S)
Total Salary: $23,700
The Red Sox are implied for 5.9 runs, which is the top mark on the main slate. They have an exploitable matchup against Royals right-hander Jakob Junis, who has pitched to a 5.13 ERA this season. He’s been particularly ineffective recently, allowing an average distance of 235 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 59% over his past two starts. Batters with comparable implied team totals facing a pitcher who has allowed similar hard contact over the past 15 days have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.83.
The Red Sox will likely be one of the highest-owned teams on the slate, which could make projected No. 8 hitter Sandy Leon an important differentiator. He’s smoked the baseball over his past seven games, resulting in 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of +40 feet, +8 miles per hour, and +27 percentage points.
On the afternoon slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
- Peralta (L)
- Ahmed (R)
- Goldschmidt (R)
- Pollock (R)
Total Salary: $13,700
The Diamondbacks are taking on Padres left-hander Clayton Richard, who owns an abysmal 6.85 K/9 through his first 18 starts this season. That could spell trouble against the Diamondbacks, who have historically crushed left-handed pitching. They rank fifth in wRC+ against left-handers this season, and their implied team total of 4.4 runs ranks second on the afternoon slate.
Paul Goldschmidt enters today’s contest in excellent recent form, posting an average distance of 252 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 55% over his past 13 games. He’s also historically dominated against left-handers in Arizona, owning an average Plus/Minus of +3.83 on FanDuel.
Other Batters
The Twins are implied for 5.2 runs today against Orioles right-hander Alex Cobb, and it’s hard to find a hitter in better recent form than Logan Morrison. He’s compiled an average distance of 278 feet over his past nine games, which represents a differential of +59 feet compared to his 12-month average. The Twins are an intriguing stack target on DraftKings, where their Team Value Rating of 78 ranks second among all teams.
The Yankees are taking on Toronto lefty Ryan Borucki, and they have been unreal against southpaws this season. They lead all teams in both wOBA and ISO and are buoyed by the presence of Giancarlo Stanton, who has posted a .513 wOBA and .433 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. He also owns a distance differential of +28 feet over his past 11 games.
If you’re looking for leverage off Greinke on the afternoon slate, consider Manuel Margot. He’s posted excellent differentials over the past 15 games, and the Padres will likely be the lowest-owned team in GPPs.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Mookie Betts
Photo credit: Patrick McDermott-USA TODAY Sports
