The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
On Sunday, DraftKings offers a 12-game main slate and FanDuel an 11-game main slate (no Coors Field) at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings, three pitchers cost $11,000 or more:
Gerrit Cole has slowed down since the season began, but he’s still averaging a +4.92 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 67% Consistency over the past month. Even though the projected Royals lineup owns a low 23.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past year, Cole possesses a solid 7.5 K Prediction. Cole should be a good bet to pick up a win, as the Astros are massive -335 moneyline favorites against a Royals team implied for just 2.6 runs. In the FantasyLabs Trends tool, we have 55 instances of a pitcher with at least -300 moneyline odds: Historically, those pitchers have dominated on DraftKings.
Chris Sale‘s matchup against the Mariners isn’t ideal: Their projected lineup boasts a 22.5% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months, and they rank fourth in splits-adjusted Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) per FanGraphs. But Sale has a 1.00 WHIP and 13.13 SO/9 over the past year. He also has the slate’s highest K Prediction (8.8) and some of the best Statcast data over the past 15 days with his 168-foot average distance, 85-mph exit velocity and 20% hard-hit rate. The Red Sox are sizeable -239 moneyline favorites, and the Mariners are implied for just 3.3 runs. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have been reliable investments.
The challenge on DraftKings is figuring how to balance Cole and Sale with Coors Field.
Jose Berrios checks in with the third-highest salary on DraftKings along with the third-highest odds to win (-175 moneyline) against the Rangers. Berrios has been relatively consistent over the past month.
While Berrios has shown flashes of upside, his outlook for the matchup against the Rangers isn’t encouraging when you factor in his salary. Berrios has a mediocre K Prediction of 6.0, and the Rangers’ 3.9-run implied total isn’t ideal when you’re paying a premium. He also has underwhelming Statcast data over his past two starts with a 206-foot average distance, 90-mph exit velocity and 44% hard-hit rate. While the Twins are -175 moneyline favorites, historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have often failed to reach salary-based expectations.
Values
No pitching options after the top-priced guys stand out and they all come with risks. Brandon McCarthy could be an intriguing SP2 candidate on DraftKings for $7,200 if you’re looking below the $8,000 range. It’s a favorable matchup for McCarthy since the projected Orioles lineup has a 27.9% strikeout rate and paltry .300 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months. The Orioles also rank 26th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. The Braves have favorable Vegas odds (-172 moneyline), and the Orioles’ 3.9-run implied total isn’t intimidating. The issue with McCarthy is that he boasts a low 5.7 K Prediction, and he’s thrown at least six innings in only two of his 14 starts this season.
Rich Hill will square off against an underwhelming Mets team whose projected lineup possesses a 27.3% strikeout rate over the past year against lefties and who ranks dead last in splits-adjusted wRC+ this season. Hill has been dealing with blister issues this season, but he managed to toss six scoreless innings against the Cubs in his last start. Hill’s 8.6 K Prediction is encouraging, along with the Dodgers’ -163 moneyline odds. The main concern with Hill is that he seems unlikely to pitch deep into the game, but the secondary pitching options are thin, and Hill stands out as one of the better options against a Mets team implied for 3.5 runs.
Fastballs
Carlos Rodon: The A’s 4.5-run implied total is worrisome, and he’s allowed a 225-foot average distance and 92-mph exit velocity over his past three starts, but Rodon’s 7.7 K Prediction is the fourth-highest mark on the slate. Overall, it’s an average matchup for Rodon, as the A’s rank 19th in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season, and their projected lineup has a 27.4% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months.
Domingo German: At the time of writing, there isn’t a Vegas line for the Yankees-Rays game, but the projected Rays lineup owns a high 26.9% strikeout rate and low .315 wOBA over the past year against righties. German boasts a solid 7.9 K Prediction, and he’s been excellent over his past three starts, striking out at least nine batters in each game. German will be in a pitcher-friendly venue at Tropicana Field, which has a Park Factor of 80.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rockies, who are implied for 6.2 runs:
The Rockies are set to take on Marlins pitcher Caleb Smith, who has been mediocre over his past two starts, allowing at least three earned runs in each game. Additionally, Smith is allowing a .375 wOBA and .200 isolated power (ISO) to opposing hitters over the past 15 days.
Meanwhile, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story all own elite numbers against lefties over the past year:
All of them are in excellent recent batted-ball form: Most notably, LeMahieu and Arenado have 15-day/12-month distance differentials of more than +20 feet along with exit velocities of 94 mph. Historically, hitters with similar lineup spots and batted-ball metrics at Coors Field have averaged a +2.42 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 55.6% Consistency.
The top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Twins, who are implied for 5.2 runs and own a slate-high 93 Team Value Rating:
The Twins face rangers righty Bartolo Colon, who has allowed six or more earned runs in his past seven games, including an eight-run outing to the Dodgers two games ago. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that Colon has troublesome Statcast data over the past 15 days, allowing a 229-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate.
Eduardo Escobar has crushed righties over the past year to the tune of a .367 wOBA and .274 ISO. He’s in solid recent batted-ball form, sporting a 222-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and massive 54% hard-hit rate, the last of which represents a 15-day/12-month differential of +19%. Hitters with comparable batted-ball metrics and implied totals have historically averaged a +2.26 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Logan Morrison hit a home run yesterday, but his +40 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) suggests that his fantasy production has lagged his form. Morrison is swinging the bat well right now, posting a 228-foot average distance, 92-mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Historically, hitters with comparable RBBLs, Vegas data and batted-ball metrics have averaged a +3.21 FanDuel Plus/Minus. The Twins may be a popular option given the value they offer.
Other Batters
Joc Pederson has a matchup against a righty, which puts him on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits. Over the past 12 months, Pederson is smashing righties with a .365 wOBA and .270 ISO. He has obliterated the baseball over his past seven games with a ridiculous 275-foot average distance and 68% hard-hit rate, numbers that give him absurd differentials of +56 feet and +30 percentage points when compared to his 12-month averages.
Yoan Moncada is in an intriguing spot, as the White Sox are implied for 4.7 runs. He has generated significant contact over the past 15 days with a 93-mph exit velocity and 38% hard-hit rate. The switch-hitting Moncada possesses a .336 wOBA and .203 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year. Additionally, opposing pitcher Paul Blackburn has allowed a .430 wOBA and .161 ISO to hitters over the past 15 days. This could be a bounceback spot for Moncada, who owns a +50 RBBL on DraftKings.
Without Coors Field on the FanDuel main slate, it could be easier to pay up for Francisco Lindor. The Indians are in a great spot Sunday, implied for slate-high 5.4 runs (tied with the Braves). Lindor has an elite .403 wOBA and .201 ISO against righties over the past year. He’s also in great batted-ball form, evidenced by his 230-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate.
Freddie Freeman is deservedly the highest-priced first baseman on both sites as he takes on David Hess, who has a woeful 2.15 HR/9 and 4.96 SO/9 over the past 12 months. Hess has also allowed an atrocious 256-foot average distance over his past two starts and a .429 wOBA and .294 ISO.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Eduardo Escobar
Photo credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
