The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features an 11-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings, there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
Stephen Strasburg leads the slate with a 0.95 WHIP, 0.84 HR/9, and 11.13 SO/9 over the past 12 months. He also leads the slate with an 8.9 K Prediction against a projected Dodgers lineup that owns a 26.8% strikeout rate over the past year. Overall, Strasburg is in a decent spot: The Dodgers are implied for just 3.5 runs, and the Nationals are -139 moneyline favorites. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions, salaries and Vegas data have been high-owned but solid investments on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
If there is a concern with Strasburg, it’s that he’s allowed a fair amount of hard contact recently with a 94-mph exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate.
Aaron Nola has been sporadic this season, averaging a 56% Consistency Rating. However, most of his shaky starts have come on the road, where he has a 25% Consistency Rating this year compared to an 80% Consistency Rating at home. Those numbers don’t appear to be a fluke: Since 2015, Nola has historically struggled on the road in an almost equal number of home/road starts (33 and 34):
Nola is on the road against the Cardinals, but he does have a few things going for him. The Phillies are slight -115 favorites, and the Cardinals are implied for just 3.7 runs. Further, Nola is sporting an excellent 8.1 K Prediction, and he owns some of the best recent batted-ball data on the slate with a 188-foot average distance, 86-mph exit velocity, and 25% hard-hit rate. It also doesn’t hurt that home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt has historically been favorable to pitchers, juicing their performance by an average of +1.5 DraftKings points per game.
Noah Syndergaard may have the most favorable outlook among the top-priced pitchers, and he comes with the cheapest salary of the three. For starters, Syndergaard is the heaviest favorite (-185 moneyline odds), and the opposing Diamondbacks are implied for a slate-low 3.0 runs. He also enters the game with favorable recent batted-ball data, allowing a 199-foot average distance, 89-mph exit velocity, and 24% hard-hit rate. Further, the Diamondbacks have historically struggled against righties over the past 12 months, owning a paltry .284 weighted on-base average (wOBA). Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions (7.4), Vegas data, and batted-ball metrics have been excellent targets:
Values
Mike Minor is intriguing with his 87% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he costs just $5,200 against the White Sox. Minor boasts an 8.1 K Prediction against a projected White Sox lineup that owns a robust 31.1% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months. Further, the White Sox rank just 28th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against lefties this season. The Rangers are just -115 moneyline favorites, and the White Sox are implied for 4.4 runs, but at $5,200 Minor doesn’t need much fantasy output to hit salary-based expectations. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have averaged a +2.48 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Jack Flaherty costs just $6,300 on DraftKings, and he owns a serviceable 8.43 SO/9 over the past 12 months. Flaherty has a solid 8.5 K Prediction and is set to take on a projected Phillies lineup that has struck out in 28.1% of at-bats against righties over the past year. The Cardinals are slight home dogs (+108 moneyline odds), but the Phillies are implied for just 3.9 runs. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have historically averaged a +3.50 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Fastballs
Eduardo Rodriguez: There is no Vegas data for this game at the time of writing, but it’s likely that the Red Sox will be sizeable favorites. Rodriguez has a solid 7.0 K Prediction against the Orioles, but over his past three starts he has allowed a 237-foot average distance and 94-mph exit velocity.
Jake Odorizzi: He has been reliable this season with a 71% Consistency Rating. He owns a serviceable 6.4 K Prediction against a projected Brewers lineup that has a 26.9% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. Further, Odorizzi is a home favorite (-115), and he has favorable recent batted-ball data with a 185-foot average distance and 86-mph exit velocity. That said, the projected Brewers lineup boasts a .352 wOBA against righties over past year and is implied for 4.4 runs.
Yu Darvish: He is a -141 moneyline favorite with a 6.4 K Prediction, but the Reds’ implied run total (4.2) is on the higher side when you consider how much Darvish costs on DraftKings. Plus, the projected Reds lineup owns a minuscule 20.3% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Braves, who are implied for 5.2 runs:
The Braves take on Marlins pitcher Wei-Yin Chen, who has a slate-worst 2.43 HR/9 over the past 12 months as well as some of the worst recent batted-ball data on the slate with his 242-foot average distance and 93-mph exit velocity. Further, Chen has allowed an absurd .484 wOBA and .433 isolated power (ISO) over the same time. Meanwhile, Ozzie Albies has crushed lefties over the past 12 months with an elite .446 wOBA and .299 ISO, as has Freddie Freeman, with his .392 wOBA and .263 ISO. Freeman has also obliterated the baseball lately with his 233-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity, and 63% hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable batted-ball data and implied run totals have historically averaged a +1.82 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Recent Batted Ball Model belongs to the Twins, who are implied for 4.7 runs. They also boast a slate-best Team Value Rating of 85:
The Twins square off against Brewers right-hander Junior Guerra, who has allowed a monstrous 256-foot average distance and 97-mph exit velocity over his past two starts. Meanwhile, the entire stack has recently smashed the baseball:
Max Kepler and Robbie Grossman each sports a Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) mark of at least +49, suggesting that they’ve played better than their fantasy production indicates, so progression could be headed their way. Overall, it’s an excellent spot for this stack, as most of the batters are on the positive sides of their wOBA and ISO splits. Eddie Rosario owns a .386 wOBA and .256 ISO against righties over the past 12 months.
Other Batters
Gary Sanchez comes into this game against Royals lefty Eric Skoglund in solid recent form with a 236-foot average distance and 95-mph exit velocity. Overall, Sanchez has fared well against lefties over the past 12 months with a .396 wOBA and .313 ISO. The Yankees are implied for a slate-high 5.3 runs. Giancarlo Stanton is also in play: He won’t come cheap, but he owns an absurd .530 wOBA and .464 ISO against lefties over the past year.
Kris Bryant is averaging an excellent +2.40 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his past 10 games, and he boasts positive differentials in recent average distance (+14 feet), exit velocity (+3 mph), and hard-hit rate (+12 percentage points). Hitters with comparable metrics and implied run totals (5.0) have historically averaged a +1.56 FanDuel Plus/Minus. His teammate Wilson Contreras is on the negative side of his wOBA and ISO splits, but he is still sporting an excellent .362 wOBA and .203 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Contreras has a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and he enters this game with solid recent batted-ball data, including a 231-foot average distance and 94-mph exit velocity. He’ll likely have lower tournament ownership than Sanchez.
Teoscar Hernandez is a great value on FanDuel with a 70% Bargain Rating. Hernandez has hit righties well over the past 12 months with an elite .401 wOBA and .352 ISO. His +26 RBBL suggests that he’s been unlucky recently, but that could change, as A’s pitcher Daniel Mengden has allowed a .327 wOBA and .250 ISO to opposing hitters over his past two starts. Teammate Yangervis Solarte is also in play as a salary-saving option. Solarte boasts a .351 wOBA and .208 ISO against righties over the past year. The Blue Jays are implied for 4.8 runs.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler
Photo credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
