The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a 12-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Sunday features an interesting group of top pitchers, with four owning salaries of at least $9,000 on FanDuel:
Gerrit Cole is the priciest option on FanDuel, and he has been nothing short of spectacular to start the season:
He appears to be in a good spot again today. He has the top Vegas data among the elite group, owning an opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs and moneyline odds of -208, and pitchers with comparable marks have historically been strong options (per the Trends tool):
That said, there are some concerns with Cole. His recent Statcast data hasn’t been nearly as good as his recent results, particularly his average batted-ball distance of 222 feet, which represents an increase of +19 feet when compared to his 12-month average. His Recent Batted Ball Luck of -89 suggests that he could be due for major regression. His K Prediction of 6.9 is tied for fourth on the slate, so there could be a few additional balls put in play against him.
If you’re looking for strikeout upside, Robbie Ray is your guy. He’s posted an elite 12-month K/9 of 13.03 over the last year and is facing a projected Nationals lineup that has struck out in 30.6% of at-bats against lefties over the same time frame. Ray’s K Prediction of 11.0 is easily the top mark on today’s slate, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions have been outstanding targets on FanDuel:
It should be noted that, like Cole, Ray has subpar recent Statcast data — 232-foot distance, 94-mph exit velocity, 42% hard-hit rate – but those numbers matter less for Ray because far fewer batters actually make contact against him. He is a +114 underdog, but no one on the slate possesses as much upside as Ray.
Rick Porcello has also enjoyed an excellent start to 2018. He appears to have recaptured some of the form that made him the AL Cy Young winner two years ago, posting a 1.93 ERA and 8.82 K/9 through his first five starts. His advanced stats suggest that his production hasn’t been fluky either, with his 183-foot average distance over his past two starts representing a differential of -31 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with similar distance differentials have been strong fantasy options:
Unfortunately, he has a tough matchup today with the red-hot Tampa Bay Rays, who have won eight straight games. They’ve averaged 7.88 runs per game over that time frame, so they’re especially hot from an offensive standpoint. There are also weather concerns for Porcello, as this game owns a slate-high 47% chance of precipitation at game time.
That leaves Jose Berrios, who has been a bit up and down to start the season. However, his Statcast data from his past two starts has been excellent, resulting in a distance differential of -21 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He’s also a solid -180 favorite, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically been nice values:
The only real knock on Berrios is his lack of strikeout upside, as his K Prediction of 5.9 is tied for just 10th on today’s slate. That said, it might not matter on FanDuel, where his $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Values
J.A. Happ has been a solid fantasy asset to start 2018, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first five starts on DraftKings, and he looks to be in a nice spot today against the Texas Rangers. Their projected lineup has posted a .274 wOBA gainst left-handers over the past 12 months, and their implied team total of 3.6 runs is the third-lowest mark on the slate. The Blue Jays are implied for a slate-high 5.5 runs, which results in -222 moneyline odds for Happ. The projected Rangers lineup has also struck out in 32.1% of at-bats against left-handers over the past 12 months, and Happ’s K Prediction of 7.1 trails only Ray’s among today’s starters. He will likely be among the highest-owned pitchers on both sites. Justin Bailey highlights Happ further in today’s Three Key MLB Players.
Ian Kennedy could be an interesting target today for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He possesses a nice combination of strikeout upside and recent form with a K Prediction of 6.9 and distance differential of -32 feet at just $6,600 on DraftKings. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and distance differentials have been solid options:
He’s also one of the better pure values on DraftKings, with his Bargain Rating of 69% ranking third among starters priced above $5,500.
Fastballs
Gio Gonzalez: He’s a slight -117 favorite against Ray, and his opponent implied team total of 3.4 runs trails only Cole’s. He’s also seen a salary decrease of $1,700 over the past month on DraftKings, which could make him an intriguing buy-low candidate at $9,400.
Luke Weaver: He hasn’t pitched up to expectations to begin 2018, and the Statcast data from his past two starts has been pretty dreadful. That said, he has posted a K/9 of 10.29 over the past 12 months, which is second only to Ray’s mark among today’s starters. He’s also pitching in Pittsburgh, where he is rewarded with a Park Factor of 85.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
They’re taking on Rangers left-hander Martin Perez, who has posted a dreadful 1.63 WHIP over the past 12 months. Most of the stacked batters are in solid recent form at the moment, with Steve Pearce, Yangervis Solarte, and Kevin Pillar all owning positive distance differentials over the past 15 days.
The big concern with this stack comes down to ownership. The team with the highest implied total almost always carries the most ownership on a given slate, and the conventional 1-2-3-4-5 stack will likely be the most popular combination for the Jays. You’ll need to take that into consideration when building the rest of your lineup and focus on being contrarian with your remaining roster spots.
The top four-man FanDuel stack also belongs to the Blue Jays, but the No. 2 stack belongs to the Baltimore Orioles:
Their implied team total of 5.0 runs ranks only fourth on today’s slate, so their ownership should be more modest. They’re taking on Tigers left-hander Daniel Norris, who has failed to live up to expectations during his young career. He’s posted a 1.63 WHIP over the past 12 months, and his Statcast data from the past 15 days is also uninspiring: 218-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity, 42% hard-hit rate. Considering that most of those innings have come from the bullpen and that pitcher performance historically decreases each successive time through the lineup, that’s concerning.
The Orioles also feature some intriguing hitters. Danny Valencia has historically crushed lefties, posting a .215 ISO over the past 12 months, and he’s posted a distance differential of +15 feet over the past 15 days. Adam Jones has been even better over that time frame, posting a distance differential of +30 feet. The Orioles are also underpriced relative to their implied team total on FanDuel, resulting in a Team Value Rating of 88.
Other Batters
Most people will not consider Rockies batters when they’re away from Coors Field, which could make them intriguing targets today against Marlins left-hander Caleb Smith. They feature a trio of right-handed batters who have historically crushed lefties in Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Chris Iannetta:
Of the trio, Iannetta is likely the most appealing target given his low $2,700 salary on DraftKings and the fact that the catcher position is one of the toughest to fill.
If you’re looking for a contrarian way to stack the Jays on today’s slate, consider projected No. 8 hitter Devon Travis. He’s absolutely crushed lefties over the past 12 months, owning a .455 wOBA and .455 ISO, and he should carry lower ownership than many of his teammates.
Using our Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) metric can be a great way to find undervalued hitters who are suffering from a case of bad luck. Robinson Chirinos has been absolutely crushing the baseball recently despite little fantasy success, and he finally parlayed that in two home runs on Saturday. One player who stands out in that regard today is Logan Morrison. He’s posted an average distance of 246 feet over his past nine games, but his lack of fantasy success has resulted in a RBBL of +81. He could be worth a look in GPPs.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Gerrit Cole
Photo Credit: Erik Williams- USA Today Sports
