The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate: There are nine-game FanDuel and 11-game DraftKings main slates starting at 1:05 p.m. and a three-game afternoon slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate features three stud pitchers with salaries of at least $9,800 on FanDuel:
Corey Kluber is the priciest option on both sites, and he leads all of today’s pitchers in three key categories: Moneyline odds (-235), opponent implied run total (2.9), and K Prediction (10.0). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have been dominant options on FanDuel:
Kluber has personally matched this trend three previous times, and he’s averaged a ridiculous 59.33 FanDuel points per game and a Plus/Minus of +21.47 in those situations.
His Statcast data from his two most recent starts is also solid, particularly his batted-ball distance of 193 feet. He will likely be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate.
Luis Severino is also a big favorite, checking in with massive -230 moneyline odds vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. However, that’s where his similarity to Kluber ends. His opponent implied team total is half a run higher than Kluber’s (3.4), and his K Prediction of 7.3 suggests that he doesn’t have the same strikeout upside.
The biggest concern with Severino, though, is his recent Statcast data. He’s allowed an average distance of 238 feet over his past two starts, which represents an increase of +43 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Even pitchers as good as Severino have historically struggled with comparable distance differentials:
His poor Statcast data didn’t affect him in his most recent start, when he posted 52.0 FanDuel points and a +18.24 Plus/Minus, but Severino was likely the beneficiary of good fortune: He has a Recent Batted Ball Luck of -86. He could be due for some painful regression against a projected Blue Jays lineup that has posted a .334 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Patrick Corbin might be the most intriguing pitching option on today’s slate. He came into the year with little fanfare but has been sensational through his first four starts:
His dominance is reflected in his recent Statcast data: 183-foot average distance, 87-mph exit velocity, and 28% hard hit rate. He has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has posted a .296 wOBA against left-handers over the past year. Their implied team total of 3.4 runs is tied for third-lowest mark on the slate. Corbin’s K Prediction of 7.3 is tied for third, but that may be a conservative estimate given that he’s struck out at least eight batters in every start this season. He’s the only one of the stud pitchers in the afternoon slate, where he should be a popular option.
Values
Lance McCullers isn’t much of a value on DraftKings, but his $8,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a slate-high Bargain Rating of 98%. He trails only Kluber with his K Prediction of 7.4 and opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs. He’s also a strong -195 favorite, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data, K Predictions, and Bargain Ratings have historically been awesome values:
He has one of the best matchups of the day against the Chicago White Sox, whose projected lineup has struck out in 27.6% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Junior Guerra could be an intriguing option for those looking to pay down at pitcher on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $6,700, but he has an awesome matchup vs. the Miami Marlins. Their projected lineup has posted a .249 wOBA and 29.1% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Guerra has moneyline odds of -181. He also has a solid K Prediction of 6.7, and pitchers with comparable salaries, moneyline odds, and K Predictions have been nice values:
He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two starts this season, and part of his success could stem from the increased velocity on his fastball. His average speed of 91.6 mph represents a differential of +1.4 when compared to his 12-month average.
Fastballs
David Price: He’s second to Corbin on the afternoon slate in moneyline odds (-129), opponent implied run total (4.0), and K Prediction (7.0). He’s also in awesome recent form, as his recent distance of 186 feet represents a decrease of -23 when compared to his 12-month average.
Nick Pivetta: He allowed just one earned run in his most recent start, but he was a slight disappointment from a fantasy perspective thanks to just two strikeouts. Even so, he’s posted a K/9 of 9.57 over the past 12 months, so his performance last game is probably an outlier. His late-season success last year has carried over to 2018, as he’s posted an ERA of 2.49 through his first four starts.
Luis Castillo: He’s yet to recapture the form that made him a major value in 2017, but he did record eight strikeouts in his most recent start. He should have minimal ownership given his +137 moneyline odds, but his K Prediction of 7.1 ranks fifth on the slate.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Detroit Tigers:
Although they’re not usually thought of as a top team to stack, the Tigers are in a nice spot today. They’re implied for 4.8 runs, which is tied for the third-highest mark on the slate, and they have a nice matchup against Royals left-hander Eric Skoglund. He has an awful 2.23 WHIP over the past 12 months and has allowed a slate-worst average distance of 241 feet over his past two starts.
The Tigers also feature a couple of intriguing batters. Nick Castellanos has absolutely destroyed left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .412 wOBA and .325 ISO. For more on Castellanos, see Justin Bailey’s Three Key MLB Players. Jeimer Candelario is also on the positive side of his batting splits against Skoglund, and he’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +22 feet.
On the afternoon slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
Their implied team total of 4.2 runs is just middle of the pack on the small three-game slate, so their ownership shouldn’t be too high. Stacking them without projected cleanup hitter Buster Posey should also help in that regard, since he’s been their highest-owned player this season by a considerable margin:
The Giants are taking on Angels right-hander Jaime Barria, who is making just his second start at the MLB level. He allowed just one run over five innings in his first start, but his peripheral numbers suggest he was pretty lucky. His Fielding Independent Pitching checked in at 6.95, and his K/9 of 5.40 is pedestrian. The Giants should put a bunch of balls in play against him at a bare minimum, and they have a couple of batters in good form at the moment. Andrew McCutchen has posted a distance differential of +11 feet over his past 13 games, while Evan Longoria has posted a hard-hit differential of +18 percentage points over the same time frame.
Other Batters
Jesus Aguilar should occupy a spot in the middle of the lineup today for a Brewers team with a slate-high implied team total of 5.3 runs. He’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits against Marlins left-hander Carson Smith, with Aguilar posting a .387 wOBA and .257 ISO against left-handers over the past 12 months. His average distance of 248 feet over the past 15 days represents a differential of +25 feet when compared to his 12-month average, so he’s in good recent form as well.
Coors Field is in play on the DraftKings main slate, and the Cubs lead all teams with an implied team total of 5.7 runs. Albert Almora occupied the leadoff spot for the Cubs on Saturday and looks like an outstanding value at $3,200 if he’s at the top of the lineup again today. Historically, leadoff batters at Coors with comparable salaries have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.66 on DraftKings.
Dexter Fowler is someone to consider buying low on today. His RBBL of +64 is one of the top marks on the slate, and he has a wOBA split of .393 and ISO split of .243 against Castillo.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Pictured above: Luis Severino
Photo Credit: Thomas Shea-USA Today Sports
