The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate: There’s a four-game early slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET and a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Saturday’s slates are absolutely loaded with pitching talent, but five options stand out above the rest on FanDuel:
- Justin Verlander (R) $12,400, HOU @ BAL
- Corey Kluber (R) $12,200, CLE @ KC
- Blake Snell (L) $12,000, TB vs. TOR
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $11,200, LAD @ SF
- Aaron Nola (R) $10,200, PHI vs. ATL
Verlander will be making his final start of the regular season before taking the ball in Game 1 of the ALDS vs. the Cleveland Indians. He’s in a nice spot vs. the Baltimore Orioles, owning an opponent implied team total of 3.0 runs and moneyline odds of -272. Verlander can still start Game 1 on full rest after pitching Saturday, but expect the Astros to exercise some caution with him: They limited Gerrit Cole to just 86 pitches in his final start of the season Friday.
Kluber will likely oppose Verlander in Game 1 of the ALDS, setting up a clash of former Cy Young winners. He’s been fantastic over the second half of the season, posting a 1.79 ERA and averaging a +6.40 Plus/Minus over his past 10 starts on FanDuel. He’s also been solid from a StatCast perspective recently, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -11 feet.
He has a wonderful matchup Saturday vs. the Kansas City Royals, whose projected lineup has struggled to a 27.3% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. The result is a K Prediction of 7.3, and Kluber’s Vegas data is also impressive: 3.2 opponent implied team total, -225 moneyline odds. The only concern is that he might be somewhat limited with the Indians’ playoff spot already secured.
Snell has somewhat quietly put together a dominant season for the Rays in 2018. He’s pitched to an elite 1.90 ERA and 10.81 K/9 and is currently listed as a -150 favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award. He’s officially earned his place in the conversation for best young pitcher in baseball.
He’ll look to end his season on a positive note against the Toronto Blue Jays. His Vegas data is elite, as well — 2.7 opponent implied team total, -260 moneyline odds — and his K Prediction of 8.3 ranks second on the slate. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.33 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
He has also posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -15 feet, and factoring a comparable distance differential into the above trend increases the average Plus/Minus to +9.26. He looks like the top option on the afternoon slate.
Kershaw will take the mound for the Dodgers, who are still looking to secure their spot in the playoffs. They’re only one game behind the Rockies in the NL West standings and two games up on the Cardinals for the second wild card, so they’ll have a lot of incentive to push Kershaw as hard as possible.
That could give him a massive ceiling vs. the San Francisco Giants, who have been anemic vs. left-handers over the past 12 months. Their projected lineup has posted a .243 wOBA and 27.4% strikeout rate against southpaws in that span, and their implied team total of 2.6 runs is the lowest mark on the slate. Kershaw is really appealing on DraftKings, where his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Nola rounds out the stud tier and will look to put a bow on his fantastic season vs. the Atlanta Braves. However, he’s the toughest pitcher in the tier to make a case for: His 3.4 opponent implied team total and -148 moneyline odds are considerably worse than his peers’. His K Prediction of 6.2 is also mediocre, so he doesn’t appear to offer much upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) either.
Values
There are some value options on today’s slate who could be considered studs as well. One of those guys is James Paxton, who owns a Bargain Rating of 87% on FanDuel. He’s taking on the Texas Rangers, and his K Prediction of 8.7 ranks first among all pitchers. He also owns strong marks in both opponent implied team total (3.2 runs) and moneyline odds (-213).
Additionally, he enters today’s contest in excellent recent StatCast form. He’s limited his past two opponents to a hard hit rate of 20%, which represents a decrease of -13 percentage points when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, comparable pitchers have averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.33 on FanDuel, so you could make a strong argument that he’s the top option on the main slate.
If you’re looking for a cheaper option on DraftKings, consider Arizona’s Zach Godley. He’s priced at just $6,200, which represents a decrease of -$3,500 over the past month.
He’s been largely ineffective over that time frame, but a lot of those starts have come against strong offenses like the Astros and Rockies. His current matchup with the Padres should be much less daunting. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .280 wOBA and 28.0% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. His resulting Vegas data is pretty moderate — 3.8 opponent implied team total, -132 moneyline odds — but his K Prediction of 8.0 is outstanding. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.67.
Fastballs
Kyle Gibson: He has an excellent matchup vs. the Chicago White Sox, whose projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 28.5% against right-handers over the past 12 months. He should also command pretty minimal ownership for GPPs.
Stephen Strasburg: He’ll garner virtually no ownership against the Rockies in Coors, but enters the day in solid recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 192 feet, which represents a decrease of -15 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Justin Turner (R)
- 3. Max Muncy (L)
- 5. Cody Bellinger (L)
- 6. Yasiel Puig (R)
Total Salary: $22,700
The Dodgers’ implied team total of 4.5 runs ranks third on the early slate and has increased by +0.2 runs since opening. They’re taking on Giants right-hander Dereck Rodriguez, who has pitched to an excellent 2.50 ERA in his rookie campaign. That said, his advanced numbers suggest he’s been significantly worse than his traditional numbers indicate, and he’s been hit hard over his past two starts: 236 foot distance, 96 mph exit velocity.
The Dodgers have been excellent against right-handed pitchers this season, owning a .337 wOBA and 114 wRC+; both of those marks rank first in the National League. Muncy in particular has destroyed right-handers, posting a .409 wOBA and .314 ISO over the past 12 months, and has also smoked the baseball over his past 11 games. He’s averaged an exit velocity of 99 mph and hard-hit rate of 63%, both of which represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
- 1. Jon Jay (L)
- 2. Eduardo Escobar (S)
- 3. David Peralta (L)
- 5. Daniel Descalso (L)
Total Salary: $11,600
The Diamondbacks are implied for just 4.3 runs, but their top stack is extremely affordable at just $11,600. Each of the four batters own a Bargain Rating of 93% on FanDuel, and Jay and Peralta each own a Bargain Rating of 99%.
They’re taking on Padres right-hander Jacob Nix, who has pitched to a disastrous 6.81 ERA in his rookie season. The D-backs are collectively in good recent form as well, with both Peralta and Descalso owning a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +33 feet.
Other Batters
Kole Calhoun continues to look like one of the best values on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $3,300 but will occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup. He’ll also be on the positive side of his batting splits against A’s right-hander Trevor Cahill, and Calhoun has posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +12 feet.
Jung-ho Kang will be making his first start in nearly two years at the MLB level and seems underpriced at $3,300 on DraftKings. He posted a 132 wRC+ when we last saw him in 2016 and will be on the positive side of his batting splits against Reds right-hander Michael Lorenzen.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: James Paxton
Photo credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
