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Saturday features a split slate that varies by site. DraftKings’ early slate (11 games) begins at 2:10 p.m. ET and FanDuel’s early slate (nine games) starts at 4:05 p.m. ET. Each site also has a 15-game all-day slate that begins at 2:10 p.m. ET, along with a four-game main slate at 7:15 p.m. ET.,
Pitchers
Studs
Pitching is loaded on Saturday with five hurlers on FanDuel priced at $10,000 or more:
- Max Scherzer (R) $12,200, WSH vs. MIA — W. Chen (L)
- Luis Severino (R) $11,700, NYY @ TOR — J. Happ (L)
- Corey Kluber (R) $11,400, CLE vs. OAK — E. Jackson (R)
- Charlie Morton (R) $10,800, HOU vs. CWS — J. Shields (R)
- James Paxton (L) $10,300, SEA. vs. COL — K. Freeland (L)
Scherzer has dominated this season, averaging a +13.40 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an 83% Consistency Rating. He draws a phenomenal matchup against the Marlins, who rank 24th this season in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers (FanGraphs). Additionally, their projected lineup possesses a pedestrian split-adjusted .283 weighted on-base average (wOBA) over the past 12 months. Scherzer leads the day in K Prediction (9.9), opponent implied run total (2.5) and moneyline odds (-314), and he boasts elite recent batted-ball data over his past two starts, holding teams to a 192-foot average distance, 88-mph exit velocity, and 23% hard-hit rate. Historically, pitchers facing teams who are implied for 2.5 runs or less have averaged an absurd +10.34 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 72.4% Consistency (per our Trends tool).
Severino has smashed over the past year, sporting a 0.96 WHIP, 0.69 HR/9 and 10.96 SO/9. He’s also in great recent form, boasting a 176-foot average distance and 88 miles-per-hour exit velocity. Severino has a solid 7.4 K Prediction, along with favorable moneyline odds (-185) as the Blue Jays are implied for a paltry 3.4 runs. It’s an average matchup on paper as the Jays rank 10th in wRC+ against righties this season, and their projected lineup has a low strikeout rate of 22.9% against them over the past 12 months. Given the context of the early slate, Severino may make for a better GPP option than cash game option when you factor in his price and the matchups for the other pitchers. Although, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data to Severino have been solid investments, averaging a +5.73 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 63.8% Consistency.
Kluber has struggled of late: Over his past two games, he has allowed nine earned runs in 7.2 innings, while striking out just seven batters. During those two games, opposing teams have torched Kluber for an average distance of 232 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph and hard-hit rate of 44%. Kluber checks a ton of boxes we look for in pitchers: He owns a 7.6 K Prediction, the A’s are implied for just 3.0 runs, and the Indians are sitting with -267 moneyline odds, but the matchup isn’t favorable whatsoever. The projected A’s lineup has a low 22.9% strikeout rate and high .331 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Additionally, they rank sixth this season in wRC+ and first in hard-hit rate against righties, which is concerning given Kluber’s recent form.
Morton is coming off two gems, striking out 11 and 13 batters in his past two starts. He’ll draw a favorable matchup against a White Sox team that is implied for an atrocious 2.9 runs. Morton is the second pitcher on the day with moneyline odds higher than -300 (-301). Historically, pitchers who have comparable moneyline odds have averaged an excellent +7.21 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 72.1% Consistency.
Paxton rounds out the top-priced options on the day. The matchup doesn’t look great on paper against a projected Rockies lineup that has a 23.1% strikeout rate and .340 wOBA against lefties over the past year. But, Paxton will have the benefit of facing the Rockies away from Coors, and at Safeco Field where he gets a Park Factor of 70. In addition to the favorable park boost, Paxton owns a solid 7.6 K Prediction, and the Mariners possess -178 moneyline odds against a Rockies team implied for just 3.2 runs. Paxton has also done a great job at limiting hard contact over his past two starts, holding teams to an average 89-mph exit velocity and 24% hard-hit rate.
The early slate is packed with pitching, which should make for a fun slate.
Values
James Tallion’s 7.4 K Prediction is the fourth-highest mark on the day, but he costs just $6,600 on DraftKings and $7,600 on FanDuel. The Pirates are slight favorites (-123 moneyline odds) against the Phillies, and their 3.8 implied run total isn’t overly intimidating. However, Tallion’s primary concern is he’s allowing loads of hard contact over his past two starts, evidenced by his 94-mph exit velocity and 52% hard-hit rate.
Steven Matz takes on a projected Rays lineup that owns a day-worst 28.5% strikeout rate and .277 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. His 5.7 K Prediction leaves much to be desired, but the Mets are only slight underdogs (+113 moneyline odds), and the Rays are implied for a weak 3.7 runs. Matz makes for a better play on DraftKings where he costs $6,100 with an 87% Bargain Rating.
Fastballs
Blake Snell: His 8.3 K prediction is the third-best mark on the slate against an underwhelming Mets team that ranks 29th in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data (3.4 opponent implied run total and -122 moneyline odds) have averaged a +5.60 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 64.5% Consistency.
Robbie Ray: He will likely end up as the next-chalkiest pitcher behind Scherzer on the main slate. Ray possesses an excellent 9.1 K Prediction against a Padres team that ranks 23rd in wRC+ against lefties this season. Ray’s main issue is he can give up tons of hard contact if he’s not making batters miss. His 44% hard-hit rate allowed over his past two starts is right on par with his 12-month average (41%). Nonetheless, he’s still worth consideration on a four-game main slate, especially since the Diamondbacks are -170 moneyline favorites.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top five-man early-slate DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rangers, who are implied for 4.7 runs:
- Choo (L)
- Andrus (R)
- Mazara (L)
- Beltre (R)
- Odor (L)
Total salary: $19.9K
The Rangers will square off against Mike Fiers, who’s been relatively mediocre over the past year with his 1.40 WHIP, 1.74 SO/9, and 7.74 SO/9. Fiers has allowed a decent amount of hard contact over his past three starts, allowing a 226-foot average batted-ball distance, 91-mph exit velocity, and 44% hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, Shin-Soo Choo is crushing the baseball over his past 10 games, evidenced by his 239-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity, and 51% hard-hit rate. All marks represent positive differentials when compared to his 12-month averages. Further, Choo will be on the positive side of his wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits, possessing an excellent .365 wOBA, and .208 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball data featured in games with similar implied run totals have averaged a +1.01 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
The top main-slate FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Dodgers, who are implied for 5.1 runs:
1. Pederson (L)
2. Muncy (L)
4. Bellinger (L)
6. Grandal (S)
Total Salary: $15.2K
The matchup against righty Deck McGuire is favorable for Joc Pederson: He has smashed righties over the past year to the tune of an elite .367 wOBA and .284 ISO. Pederson is in excellent batted-ball form, posting a ridiculous 251-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 51% hard-hit rate. His +29-foot distance differential is the second-best mark among outfielders on the main slate. Teammate, Max Muncy also possesses elite numbers against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months, sporting a .439 wOBA and .359 ISO. Additionally, Muncy is obliterating the baseball over his past 13 games with a 97-mph exit velocity.
Other Batters
Edwin Encarnacion could be a progression candidate with his +33 Recent Batted Ball Luck Score (RBBL) on DraftKings. The Indians are implied for a stellar 5.1 runs, and Encarnacion has smoked the baseball over his past 11 games, evidenced by his 232-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and massive 61% hard-hit rate. His hard-hit rate his 22-percentage points above his 12-month average. Hitters with comparable batted-ball metrics, and Vegas data have historically averaged a +1.32 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
David Price owns some awful Statcast data over his past two starts, allowing a 236-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity, and 43% hard-hit rate. The Royals could be an intriguing play, even though they’re implied for just 3.8 runs. White Merrifield possesses an elite .400 wOBA and .235 ISO against left-handed over pitchers over the past year and Salvador Perez leads all hitters on DraftKings with a +89 RBBL Score.
Brian Dozier boasts a 70% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Despite being on the negative side of his wOBA and ISO splits, Dozier has still shown power against right-handed pitchers with his .348 wOBA and .215 ISO. Dozier’s struggled of late with a 20% Consistency Rating over his past 10 games. However, he’s another progression candidate with his +54 RBBL score and +19-foot distance differential. Hitters with comparable distance differentials, RBBL Scores, and Vegas data have historically averaged a +1.96 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Max Scherzer
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
