The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
The 15-game all-day slate starts at 1:05 pm ET, and the nine-game main slate begins at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw headline the elite pitchers, and it’s the first time this season all three are available on the same slate:
They are tuning up for the postseason, which could lead to undisclosed pitch counts. Indians manager Terry Francona has already stated Kluber could be held to a pitch limit, but the decision will ultimately be Kluber’s. He doesn’t strike me as someone who would willingly exit a start early. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts stated on Tuesday that Kershaw’s outing will be abbreviated, offering no further clarification. The process of elimination leaves Scherzer as the optimal choice for tonight’s main slate, but he was pulled after 87 pitches in his last start despite striking out 10 Mets in 6.0 innings.
Kluber may have the highest floor of all pitchers on the slate, but he’s also the most expensive option. He’s failed to exceed salary-based expectations once since the beginning of June, and in three starts against the White Sox during that span Kluber posted 22.1, 23.65, and 39.35 DraftKings points while accumulating 33 strikeouts in 19.1 innings.
He hasn’t pitched fewer than 7.0 innings in seven straight starts, nor has he allowed an earned run in 29.2 consecutive innings. His recent performance speaks for itself:
Kluber leads all pitchers with a career-high 10.9 K Prediction (per the Trends tool), a full point higher than his previous apex. Pitchers with a similar K Prediction have averaged a +4.61 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 65.7 percent Consistency Rating. The over/under for the White Sox-Indians game has not yet been set (per our Vegas Dashboard), but Kluber hasn’t faced a team implied to score more than 3.4 runs since the middle of June.
In four starts against the White Sox this year, Kluber’s average DraftKings guaranteed prize pool (GPP) ownership has been 49.3 percent. When Kluber and Kershaw were available on the same slate earlier this month, Kluber’s DraftKings GPP average ownership was double that of Kershaw’s; On FanDuel, the discrepancy increased (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
Kluber and Scherzer have been available on the same slate twice this season, and in both cases Kluber had higher average ownership — nearly double on both slates. Kluber’s salary may dent his average GPP ownership, but he’s likely to be the most popular of the elite pitchers.
Scherzer is facing a projected Pirates lineup with the lowest wOBA (.285) in the all-day slate, and he currently leads all pitchers with an opponent implied total of 3.0. His 10.4 K Prediction is the second highest on the main slate, and pitchers with similar marks have averaged a +3.28 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 66.0 percent Consistency Rating. Scherzer leads all pitchers with 19 matches:
Scherzer costs more than Kershaw but less than Kluber. He and Kluber have similar recent Statcast data with the exception of Scherzer’s 53 percent fly ball rate allowed — the second-highest mark in the main slate. The Pirates have the third-lowest fly ball rate against right-handed pitchers this season, and pitchers facing the Pirates with a similar opponent implied total have averaged a +7.79 DraftKings Plus/Minus this season. Fading Kluber in favor of Scherzer is a move that will free up $800 on DraftKings and $1,200 on FanDuel.
Kershaw is pitching at Coors Field, a venue where he’s averaged a -0.09 FanDuel Plus/Minus in 10 starts. The last time he faced the Rockies, which took place at Dodger Stadium, he allowed four runs in 3.2 innings. He costs a season-low $9,600 on FanDuel — his lowest salary since August of 2013 — but as mentioned he will likely have a pitch count even though the Dodgers are competing for home-field advantage through the World Series. Additionally, light rain is in the forecast, limiting Kershaw to a GPP pivot.
Values
The Mets have capped Seth Lugo‘s pitch count since he came off the disabled list with a right shoulder impingement, but he spun seven-scoreless innings in just 84 pitches during his recent start. He costs no more than $6,300 on FanDuel and DraftKings, and he’s currently one of two pitchers facing a team implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs — set to change once the rest of the Vegas over/unders are established. The last time he faced the Phillies, he allowed five runs in 5.2 innings and narrowly missed salary-based expectations. His upside is clearly hindered, but he’ll likely be the popular SP2 in all main-slate formats.
German Marquez has been clutch at Coors Field since last season:
He ranks second among main-slate pitchers with a 60 percent recent ground ball rate, and he’s limited left-handed hitters at Coors to a 51.6 percent ground ball mark. The projected Dodgers lineup contains three lefties and a switch hitter, and since the Dodgers offensive swoon began at the end of August they’ve ranked 25th in wOBA against right-handed pitchers. Marquez doesn’t offer a floor comparable to Lugo’s, but both cost roughly the same and Marquez isn’t inhibited by a pitch count.
Fastball
Ricky Nolasco: Mariners manager Scott Servais plans to play the younger players during the final two games of the season, and the Mariners are presently implied to score 4.2 runs. Nolasco hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in three straight starts, but his upside has been capped due to nine combined strikeouts in those outings. He costs $5,700 on DraftKings, and he’s a potential sneaky SP2 option.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Athletics, mainly because the Vegas over/under for the Coors Field game has not yet been set:
The Athletics are one of two teams presently implied to score at least 5.0 runs in the main slate (subject to change since three games don’t yet have a line). No hitter costs more than $8,700 in the stack, and only one has a negative wOBA and ISO differential against right-handed pitchers. Rangers right-handed starter Andrew Cashner has allowed a 227-foot recent batted ball distance, but he’s also limited hitters to a 27 percent recent fly ball rate. Khris Davis, Marcus Semien, and Jed Lowrie rate near the top at their position in recent batted ball distance, and when all three have faced a right-handed starter on the road they’ve averaged a cumulative +1.19 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus with a 48.6 percent Consistency Rating. They should be the nucleus of any Athletics stack.
The Athletics currently have the top-rated stack in the CSURAM88 Model, but the Rangers, who currently lead all teams with a 5.6-run implied total and 90 Team Value Rating, have the next stack:
Athletics starter Daniel Gossett has allowed 13 runs and six homers in his last two starts, and his WHIP (1.632) and HR/9 rate allowed (2.083) are among the highest marks on the main slate. Right-handed hitters have a HR/9 rate more than double than that of their left-handed counterparts, but lefties have a measly 5.84 SO/9 rate against Gossett this season, and both groups of hitters have nearly identical wOBAs. Gossett has allowed the second-highest wOBA and ISO over the past 15 days, and this disjointed, unique stack is quite cheap and a viable pairing with an expensive pitcher.
Batters
Jose Abreu has been a thorn in Kluber’s side this season, averaging a +5.47 FanDuel Plus/Minus with only a 0.7 percent GPP average ownership in four games against the ace. In 14 career games against Kluber, Abreu has exceeded salary-based expectations seven times, and he’s been held scoreless just twice. Rostering Abreu is a near-guarantee to construct a unique lineup, and one that can be insulated by chalk bats in GPPs.
Rhys Hoskins‘ DraftKings salary reached $5,600 at the start of the week, but he hasn’t met salary-based expectations in 11 of his last 13 games, during which he’s gone 6-of-44. Now that he costs $3,600 on DraftKings, he’s become more appealing. Even at $4,300 on Friday, his average DraftKings GPP ownership was 21.1 percent. That figure will likely increase in conjunction with his salary deflation, and Hoskins has remained sharp with a 40 percent recent hard hit rate, the second-highest among hitters with a wOBA of at least .414.
If Kershaw is, in fact, expected to have an abbreviated outing, stacking discounted Rockies hitters could pay off greatly as the Dodgers bullpen has allowed a 1.46 HR/9 rate and 1.50 WHIP over the past month, two of the highest marks since rosters expanded at the beginning of September. Nolan Arenado leads all hitters in the main slate with a 0.540 wOBA and 0.432 ISO, and he costs less than $5,000 at Coors for the third time all season.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players highlighted. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our MLB news blurbs:
