The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
There are 15 games today starting at 1:05 pm ET in the all-day slates. The nine-game main slate begins at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Stud
Stephen Strasburg is the only pitcher priced more than $10,000 on DraftKings who is available in the main slate, and just two main-slate starters are currently facing teams implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs:
Strasburg has exceeded salary-based expectations in all six starts since being activated off the disabled list. During that span, he’s pitched at least 6.0 innings in each contest and allowed three combined runs while recording a 10.8 SO/9 rate and allowing the second-lowest wOBA (.194) among starters. He’s the clear-cut ace in the main slate, and he’s facing a projected Mets lineup with the second-lowest wOBA (.294).
Strasburg costs a season-high $13,300 on DraftKings, and when he’s cost a similar price he’s averaged a +2.53 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 64.3 Consistency Rating. His FanDuel salary ($11,300) is more palatable, and he’ll likely have high ownership in all formats.
Strasburg leads all pitchers with a 7.2 K Prediction, -204 moneyline odds, and 3.5 opponent implied total — solid but not impressive marks. Pitchers with comparable numbers have averaged a +3.53 DraftKings Plus/Minus, but the few similarly-priced starters haven’t offered as much upside with a +0.62 Plus/Minus.
Fading Strasburg in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) will be one way to differentiate from the heaps of lineups that will undoubtedly contain him, and because of his salary it’s an option worth considering. Right-handed starters have averaged a -1.59 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Mets since the trade deadline, and the Mets have retaliated with the seventh-highest wOBA and eighth-lowest strikeout rate over the past month without Michael Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes.
Values
Julio Teheran and Lance Lynn have nearly identical recent Statcast data, and both lead all pitchers in the main slate with a 188-foot batted ball distance allowed over the past 15 days. Neither costs more than $8,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Lynn and Strasburg are the only starters in the main slate facing teams implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs, and Lynn costs $800 less than Teheran on DraftKings. Teheran has the edge over Lynn in recent form, but Lynn leads all pitchers with an 88 Park Factor and 17 percent recent hard hit rate. No hitter in the projected Pirates lineup has a recent batted ball distance greater than 207 feet or a recent hard hit rate greater than 37 percent, and over the last month starters have averaged a +4.27 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 60.7 percent Consistency Rating against the Pirates. Bill Miller will umpire the game, and when favored pitchers with mediocre K Predictions have taken the mound they’ve benefitted with Miller behind the plate the past three seasons:
Teheran has been disastrous at SunTrust Park this season, but since he adjusted the speed of his slider seven starts ago his productivity has improved. Teheran has allowed only two home runs in his last seven outings and struck out 42 in 45.0 innings, a ratio slightly better than his 12-month 7.793 SO/9 average. Rhys Hoskins is one of the hottest hitters in the majors, but the rest of the projected Phillies lineup isn’t imposing. Rostering Teheran is betting on his recent form, which would normally be the route better taken in GPPs. However, there are few worthwhile pitching options in the main slate, likely extending Teheran’s appeal to all formats.
Fastballs
Danny Duffy: He was limited to 62 pitches the last start and still supplied 24.65 DraftKings points and 36.0 FanDuel points after missing time with a left elbow impingement. He may yet again have a strict pitch count, but he’s facing a White Sox ensemble against whom left-handed starters have averaged a +2.48 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 62.5 percent Consistency Rating since the trade deadline.
Jhoulys Chacin: He ranks second in the majors with a 1.91 ERA and 0.251 wOBA allowed at home, and after two tame outings away from Petco Park Chacin’s DraftKings salary remains sub-$6,000. He’s facing a Rockies team presently implied to score 4.0 runs, the third-lowest mark in the main slate, and he’s averaged a +7.57 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 15 home starts this year.
Madison Bumgarner: The last time Bumgarner didn’t allow a run, he struck out seven Dodgers in 7.0 innings and notched 26.15 DraftKings points. After the Dodgers locked up the NL West division crown last night, it’s possible some of their regulars will rest tonight, and that would deflate their 5.0-run implied total while increasing Bumgarner’s attractiveness.
New York Mets
Noah Syndergaard will pitch only one inning in his first start since April 30th, and he’ll immediately be replaced by Matt Harvey, who has allowed 21 combined runs in four September starts without tossing more than 86 pitches in any of those contests. Right-handed starters facing the Nationals since July have averaged a +4.64 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and Harvey’s salary has cratered to $4,900 on DraftKings. He’s expected to toss as many innings as he would in a normal start, but he’s struggled of late and the Nationals regulars will likely be back in the lineup after resting Friday. Harvey is nothing more than a punt option as an SP2, but he should be treated as the starter versus the Nationals and will be in the Models rather than Syndergaard.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Athletics, one of six teams presently implied to score at least 5.1 runs in the main slate:
Rangers righty Miguel Gonzalez has recent Statcast data that ranks in the bottom-two among starters in the main slate, and in three appearances since joining the Rangers he’s allowed four homers and 12 runs in 10.1 combined innings. Khris Davis is a glaring omission from the stack, but his 12 percent recent hard hit rate shouldn’t go unnoticed, and excluding Davis is one way to deviate from a normal Athletics stack. Every hitter in the stack has a recent batted ball distance of at least 225 feet, and in his limited plate appearances Matt Olsen has cultivated the second-highest ISO on the slate.
The Royals possess the highest-rated DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model, and they are implied to score 5.5 runs, the second-highest mark on the slate:
White Sox starter Dylan Covey has allowed at least four runs in his last four starts dating back to May, and his 1.899 WHIP, 2.929 HR/9 rate, and 5.371 SO/9 rate are bottom-two ranks in the main slate. Hitters in the top-five spots of the batting order have averaged a +1.57 DraftKings Plus/Minus in games Covey has started this season, and only eight percent of them have recorded zero points. When the Royals have held a similar implied total, the hitters in the stack have averaged a +2.74 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 55.2 percent Consistency Rating, led by Whit Merrifield with a +6.18 in 20 games. No hitter in the stack costs more than $4,600, and the Royals provide the second-highest DraftKings Team Value Rating.
Batters
Daniel Murphy has reached base in 31 of 32 games against the Mets since joining the Nationals in 2016, and he’s averaged a +4.61 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 50 percent Consistency Rating during that span. He’s the most expensive second baseman on DraftKings available in the main slate, but he costs only $3,400 on FanDuel. He leads his position with a 252-foot recent batted ball distance, and he should be a serviceable option in cash games.
The Diamondbacks are facing a left-handed starter for the second straight game. They scored seven runs off Adam Conley in 1.2 innings last night, and when opposing lefties at home this season they’ve led all teams in average Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating:
The Diamondbacks lead all teams for the second straight day with a 5.7-run implied total, and J.D. Martinez leads all hitters in the main slate with a 0.521 wOBA and 0.484 ISO. His recent Statcast data rates favorably compared to the rest of the hitters in the main slate, and he’s averaged a +5.54 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 31 games against lefties this season — the third-highest mark with a minimum of 10 games.
The Braves lead all teams with an 87 DraftKings Team Value Rating. This is significant as only one hitter in their projected lineup costs more than $3,700, and if you’re going to spend up for Strasburg in the main slate then finding a cheap stack with solid upside becomes paramount. The Braves are presently implied for 5.4 runs, and they’re facing a starter in Henderson Alvarez who allowed two homers in his first start since 2015. Lefties have historically mashed Alvarez, and the projected Braves lineup has four lefties atop the order.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our MLB news blurbs:
