The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday presents an 11-game main slate beginning at 7:05 pm ET. Two smaller slates commence at 1:05 pm ET and 3:40 pm ET. Two separate doubleheaders will be played between the Mets-Astros and Dodgers-Padres.
Pitchers
Studs
The all-day slate is full of expensive pitchers, five of whom cost more than $10,000 on DraftKings. Corey Kluber and Jon Lester are expensive pitchers not available in the main slate:
Max Scherzer opposes a projected Brewers lineup with the highest combined wOBA on the main slate, but he leads all pitchers with a 10.2 K Prediction. He’s struck out at least nine batters in 14 of his last 16 starts, and he’s separated himself as the elite cash-game option.
The current Brewers roster has generated the highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, and when Scherzer faced them at the end of July, he supplied 29.9 DraftKings points at $13,800. The Brewers are presently implied to score a slate-low 3.4 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard), a total they’ve failed to exceed in eight of their last 10 games. They’ve registered the highest strikeout rate in the majors over the last month, and six of the hitters in the projected lineup have strikeout rates of at least 22.7 percent over that span. Right-handed pitchers have averaged a +1.13 Plus/Minus Plus/Minus against the Brewers this year (per our Trends tool), and that number has grown since the beginning of July:
Pitchers with similar K Predictions, moneyline odds, and opponent implied totals have been infrequent but profitable, averaging a +5.30 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 77.3 percent Consistency Rating and 34.5 percent average DraftKings guaranteed prize pool (GPP) ownership. Scherzer leads all pitchers with seven Pro Trends, and he’s averaged 29.88 DraftKings points when discarding the game he was forced to leave after one inning for neck issues.
When priced between $13,000 and $14,000, Scherzer’s average DraftKings GPP ownership has stabilized at 21.6 percent — down from his overall ownership of 29.6 percent. When he’s pitched on a slate with Coors Field this season, his average GPP ownership has spanned from around 15 percent to maxing out near 60 percent. More recently, he hasn’t exceeded 30 percent on a shared slate, mainly since another quality stud has also been available — either Chris Sale or Corey Kluber. Chris Archer and Scherzer have shared a slate with Coors Field twice over the last four months, and they alternated average ownership levels of at least 50 percent or no more than 15 percent (per the DFS Ownership Dashboard). Rostering Scherzer will likely force a fade of Coors Field, which hasn’t been too welcoming to the Rockies this week.
Archer has putrid recent Statcast data, but you wouldn’t know it based on his recent production of 46.0 and 55.0 FanDuel points. Over his last two starts, he’s struck out 18 and allowed two total runs. He’s also allowed a 229-foot batted ball distance, 41 percent fly ball rate, and 45 percent hard hit rate. The current White Sox roster has the fourth-highest strikeout rate, lowest walk rate, second-lowest wOBA, and third-highest ground ball rate against right-handed pitchers this season. Archer is in a great spot, and if he was pitching at home, he would be a lock. That said, Archer’s struggles on the road have been less demonstrative since the All-Star break, and he’s pitched at least 6.0 innings in 18 of his last 19 starts, creating a sturdy floor:
When Archer has faced a team implied to score around 3.5 runs on the road, he’s averaged 19.12 DraftKings points, which is 0.08 points below tonight’s salary-based expectation. When favored, his production has declined further to an average of 16.29 DraftKings points in 15 such starts. He’s not a reliable entity on the road, but the White Sox’s peripherals combined with Archer’s recent success on the road — a +2.99 DraftKings Plus/Minus over the last six chances — will make him an attractive target in GPPs. He costs $2,300 less than Scherzer and $1,100 less than he did in his most recent start. Weather is another factor worth considering before rostering Archer. There’s a 13 percent chance of precipitation at Guaranteed Rate Field, and an in-game delay may keep Archer from reaching his expected six-plus innings.
Pro subscribers can also view how other DFS players approached pitchers on the rain-heavy 11-game main slate via our new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Kluber is the main draw in the non-main slate. He’s facing a depleted Tigers team presently implied to score 2.9 runs. Kluber also carries a 9.7 K Prediction and -301 moneyline odds. Similar marks have been recorded seven previous times in our database with sterling results: a +9.33 FanDuel Plus/Minus and +4.50 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Kluber accounted for two of the matches, posting 55.0 and 43.0 FanDuel points. Currently, rain is the largest impediment to his chalk status.
Values
Brad Peacock costs an affordable $8,700 on FanDuel. He has the highest moneyline odds (-221) in the main slate, and he’s tied with Scherzer for most Pro Trends. In his last two starts, he’s limited hitters to a 16 percent hard hit rate and 199-foot batted ball distance. The current Mets roster may not be an elite strikeout matchup, but they rank last in wOBA and 28th in ISO against right-handed pitchers. Their neophyte core has produced a 0.219 SO/AB rate, the fourth-lowest on the main slate, but Peacock ranks second with an 11.468 SO/9 mark over the past 12 months. As a starter, his SO/9 rate has increased and his hard contact has slightly improved. He has a case for SP1 and SP2 due to his cheap salary, and since the beginning of August, pitchers facing the Mets have been stellar investments:
Dan Straily has strung together six straight outings of allowing no more than three earned runs while lasting at least 5.2 innings in five of them. He’s facing a projected Phillies lineup with the fourth-highest SO/AB rate, and less than two weeks ago, he struck out 10 Phillies in 6.0 innings. The Phillies have the fifth-highest strikeout rate and seventh-lowest walk rate over the last month, and during that span, they’ve produced the second-highest soft contact rate. Straily has allowed a concerning 57 percent fly ball rate in his last two outings, but he’s suppressed hard contact to 17 percent while limiting hitters to an average batted ball distance of 183 feet. Rain is expected on the East Coast today, but Straily will be protected by the roof at Marlins Park — slightly increasing his case as a cash-game SP2. He costs $8,600 on DraftKings and provides a 7.8 K Prediction — the fourth-highest on the main slate.
Fastballs
Carlos Rodon: He’s extremely erratic, oscillating between four and double-digit strikeouts this season. The Rays are presently implied to score 4.6 runs, but they also claim the third-highest strikeout rate and fifth-lowest wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season. Light rain is in the forecast, and Rodon is not expected to be highly-owned in GPPs.
Jameson Taillon: He’s the cheapest pitcher facing a team implied to score less than 4.0 runs, but he’s also dealing with a 52 percent chance of precipitation. He’ll be limited to GPPs only, and his recent Statcast data is among the best on the slate. Taillon’s recent struggles have stemmed from walks. He lasted only 4.0 innings against the Reds in his last start after tossing 108 pitches and walking four.
Jordan Lyles: He costs $4,000 on DraftKings, which creates plenty of salary cap relief to double-dip with Scherzer and Coors Field. Lyles had an unsuccessful year as a reliever with the Rockies, resulting in a 2.12 HR/9 rate, 1.56 WHIP, and 0.386 wOBA allowed. He may be stuck on a pitch count, but his salary-implied total is just 8.83 points.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Angels, now equipped with the services of Brandon Phillips and Justin Upton:
The Angels are currently implied to score 5.7 runs, which is within 0.2 runs of both teams playing at Coors Field. This stack is also roughly $5,000 cheaper than the most expensive Rockies configuration. Rangers right-handed starter A.J. Griffin has the highest HR/9 rate (2.789) allowed on the main slate, and among starters with at least 60.0 innings pitched this season, he possesses the highest fly ball rate (59.4 percent) allowed. Upton and Mike Trout both have HR/FB rates of at least 20 percent this year, and the hitting conditions at Globe Life Park in Arlington project to benefit the hitters.
The top-rated stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Diamondbacks, a team presently implied to score 5.8 runs — the second-highest mark in the main slate:
Jon Gray is not someone to be trifled with at Coors Field, but left-handers have much better marks against him compared to right-handers this season. However, he’s also limited that group to a 58.7 percent ground ball rate at Coors Field. Stacking the Diamondbacks against Gray may actually be a contrarian ploy since Gray has been masterful at home this season, reducing hitters to a 0.292 wOBA and 0.60 HR/9 rate. Since left-handers get on base more frequently and strike out less often compared to their right-handed counterparts, this stack with four lefties could potentially warrant exposure in GPPs.
Batters
Angels right-hander Ricky Nolasco has allowed 32 homers this season, and Rangers Joey Gallo — not to be confused with the illustrious and deceased lawyer Jerry Gallo — has an elite 0.362 ISO against righties this season. Not too far behind him is catcher Robinson Chirinos, who has recorded a hit in 14 straight games and is projected to bat ninth. One of Nolasco’s last two starts occurred against the Rangers, and although he yielded only one run in 4.1 innings, he’s allowed a 232-foot batted ball distance and 48 percent over the past 15 days. The Rangers presently have the highest DraftKings Team Value Rating, and over on FanDuel, projected leadoff hitter Delino DeShields has recorded a 68 percent monthly Consistency Rating. Finding ways to incorporate cheap Rangers into your lineup will allow you to pay up at pitching while maintaining solid upside.
Trevor Story leads all hitters on DraftKings with 14 DraftKings Pro Trends. He’s doubled in six of the last seven games and has averaged a 51 percent fly ball rate and 58 percent hard hit rate over the past 15 days. His wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season is 0.440, and his ISO of 0.380 nearly triples his rate against righties. When he’s faced a lefty at Coors Field since the beginning of 2016, he’s averaged a +1.87 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 46.4 percent Consistency Rating. He costs $3,500 tonight — his lowest salary under similar settings. Maybe he’ll get overlooked as the projected eighth hitter, but he’s proven a reliable option against lefties.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
