The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday provides a 12-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET. The early slate includes all three games prior to 7:05 on DraftKings, but the FanDuel early slate is limited to two games, skipping the Brewers-Rays contest.
Pitchers
Studs
Gerrit Cole is the only pitcher in the main slate who costs more than $9,000 on FanDuel, and he’s the most-expensive main-slate pitcher on DraftKings. Many of the expensive options are priced at their highest or second-highest salary this season, and the term ‘stud’ doesn’t quite resonate with this cast of overpriced pitchers:
Cole will attempt to deliver two consecutive strong starts against the Padres after striking out eight in 7.0 innings against them on Sunday. The Padres and Pirates are switching venues from Petco Park to PNC Park, where Cole has maintained a lower WHIP, wOBA allowed, and ground ball rate this season. He currently leads all pitchers in Pro Trends, and he’s facing a projected Padres lineup with the highest SO/AB rate and second-lowest wOBA on the slate. Cole has pitched at least 6.0 innings and allowed no more than two runs in eight of the last nine starts, likely solidifying his status as the chalk pitcher in cash games despite the hefty price hike.
The Padres are implied to score a slate-low 3.4 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard) on a slate where only three teams have a current implied run total less than 4.0. Cole claims spectacular recent Statcast data, limiting hitters to a 187-foot batted ball distance and 19 percent hard hit rate. He’s aided by an 86 Park Factor and solid 7.4 K Prediction, and his DraftKings salary ($11,000) may be the only hindrance to his claim as the best option on the slate. Paying the extra thousand or so for Cole at $9,600 on FanDuel isn’t as prohibitive, but with a slight chance of precipitation, the forecast should be investigated closer to start time before locking him in.
Pitchers with comparable salaries, opponent implied runs, K Predictions, and Park Factors have averaged a +2.58 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 61.9 percent Consistency Rating and 28.6 percent guaranteed prize pool (GPP) ownership (per our Trends tool). Cole has matched the trend quite a few times, and he’s proven his worthiness for all formats:
Pro Subscribers can access ownership percentages shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Drew Pomeranz is facing a White Sox team with the second-lowest implied total, and Danny Salazar leads all pitchers with a 9.0 K Prediction. They’re not typically mentioned in the studs section. On this slate, however, they may be among the highest-owned pitchers other than Cole.
Pomeranz has been extremely consistent over the past nine starts, providing at least 14.45 DraftKings points and rarely allowing more than two runs:
He’s shown an ability to last at least 6.0 innings, and he possesses considerable upside facing a projected lineup with the second-highest SO/AB rate. The White Sox’s active roster ranks 22nd in wOBA, 29th in walk rate and fly ball rate, last in hard hit rate, and 10th with a 22.3 percent strikeout rate against lefties this season. What sets Pomeranz apart from the field is his incredible -287 moneyline odds, his highest in our database. Pitchers with mediocre umpires but elite moneyline odds and solid SO/9 rates have historically averaged a +2.87 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 65.0 percent Consistency Rating. Pomeranz fits the mold, and he provides a $2,000 savings on DraftKings and $1,000 discount on FanDuel compared to Cole. There’s presently a 19 percent chance of precipitation at Fenway Park, and if an in-game delay appears likely, Pomeranz will become more intriguing in GPPs than cash games.
Salazar has made two starts since being activated off the disabled list, recording eight strikeouts and pitching at least 6.0 innings both times. Right-handed starters have averaged a +1.51 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Yankees away from Yankee Stadium this season, and in 38 starts at Progressive Field, Salazar has averaged a +2.23 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Salazar costs slightly more than Pomeranz and much less than Cole on DraftKings and FanDuel, and his nearly identical WHIP and HR/9 rates rank seventh-highest on the slate, likely limiting him to a GPP pivot. Home pitchers with a similar K Prediction and opponent implied run total have been rare over the past three-and-a-half seasons, but they’ve contributed solid production:
Rich Hill is the only pitcher in the early slate with an opponent implied run total less than 4.0 and a K Prediction north of 5.7. The Dodgers are -182 moneyline favorites, and prior to his last outing, Hill recorded at least seven strikeouts and 19.55 DraftKings points in six straight starts — jump-started by an eight-strikeout, 25.05 DraftKings points performance against the Mets on June 21st. Since that start, Hill has pitched into the sixth inning in five of the six games, which had been an issue earlier in the season for him. Expect Hill to be chalky on such a small slate.
Value
Luis Castillo‘s salary has peaked on DraftKings ($8,000) and FanDuel ($7,700), and thus far, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in every start this season:
His starts have ranged between 5.0 and 8.0 innings and five and nine strikeouts. Over his last two starts, he’s recorded slate-low marks of a 170-foot batted ball distance and a 15 percent fly ball rate. Castillo has the third-lowest WHIP and third-highest SO/9 rate on the slate, and he’s the cheapest of the four pitchers with a K Prediction of at least 8.0. Right-handed home starters against the Cardinals have been among the lowest-owned in GPPs, yet they’ve provided a +1.49 DraftKings this season and exceeded-salary based expectations in their last five chances. Castillo is in the conversation for SP2 in all formats.
Charlie Morton is one of nine pitchers who costs between $8,000 and $8,900 on FanDuel, and he’s one of only three pitchers facing a team implied to score no more than 3.7 runs. The Blue Jays struck out only three times against Morton on July 7th, but Morton still provided 34.0 FanDuel points and limited them to one run in 6.0 innings. He’s limited hitters to a 16 percent hard hit rate and 86 MPH exit velocity in his last two starts, and he leads Astros pitchers with a +7.18 FanDuel Plus/Minus this season. His DraftKings salary ($9,500) is the third-highest on the slate, which will likely diminish his cash-game appeal unless the forecasts for both the Padres-Pirates and White Sox-Red Sox games get worse. His appeal on FanDuel derives from his recent form and relatively low salary, one that will allow the stacking of high-priced bats.
Fastballs
Dinelson Lamet: Like Cole, Lamet pitched in the recent Padres-Pirates three-game series, and he racked up seven strikeouts in 6.0 innings while allowing two runs and a season-low two hits. The high variance he provides each time he pitches has been tough for cash games, but his extreme upside, as was on display last Saturday, is why Lamet continuously warrants consideration in GPPs, even if he’s pitching outside of Petco Park.
Jon Gray: He’s averaged a +7.95 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70.6 percent Consistency Rating in 17 career starts at Coors Field. He’s also facing a Phillies team against whom right-handed starters have averaged a league-best +2.93 FanDuel Plus/Minus since the beginning of May. His strikeout rate in and away from Coors Field has been similar over the past two seasons, and he ranks sixth with a 7.3 K Prediction.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model for the main slate is a 1-2-3-4-5 Phillies combination:
The Phillies are the fifth road team implied to score less than 5.0 runs at Coors Field this season, tying the season-low mark of 4.8. No hitter in the stack costs more than $4,800 or less than $4,200, and they were held to three runs last night. Even though they’re at Coors Field, none of the top-12 highest-owned players on Friday were Phillies. Low average ownership for their hitters again tonight appears to be a likelihood, and Gray has been less effective against left-handed hitters, allowing a 0.384 wOBA and being reduced to a 7.71 SO/9 rate — down from his 11.78 SO/9 rate against righties this season. This Phillies stack is comprised of one lefty and three switch hitters who will bat from the left side, potentially leading to an offensive explosion rarely allowed by Gray at Coors.
The Phillies also have the highest-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model, followed by the much more expensive Rockies, who are currently implied to score a slate-best 6.8 runs and cost more than any other six-man stack:
Charlie Blackmon has been superb when leading off against a right-handed pitcher at Coors, averaging a +1.67 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus with a 51.9 percent Consistency Rating. DJ LeMahieu is the only hitter in the stack with a recent hard hit rate less than 39 percent, but he’s compensated by reaching base in 21 straight games and averaging a 52.4 percent Consistency Rating over the last two months. Phillies RHP Nick Pivetta has the third-highest HR/9 rate on the slate, and hitters at Coors Field have a slate-best 92 Weather Rating. When Rockies hitters have possessed a similar implied total and Weather Rating at Coors, they’ve averaged a +1.76 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus with a 50.0 percent Consistency Rating. The six hitters in the stack have offered a +3.31 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus under similar conditions, and their 15.7 percent GPP ownership potentially projects high ownership for many of them.
Batters
James Shields has been a punching bag this season. He’s allowed six runs in four of his last seven starts, and since returning from the disabled list on June 18th, he’s allowed a league-high 39 runs and the second-most homers at 12. When Shields is on the mound, you can expect plenty of runs — the Red Sox are presently implied to score 6.5 runs — but you can also count on the opposing team to be heavily featured as the primary stack. In his last four starts, three or four hitters on the team opposing Shields have received the highest average DraftKings GPP ownership, and prior to that, three of the top-four or -five hitters in average ownership belonged to hitters facing Shields in two of three outings. The Red Sox presently lead all teams in Team Value Rating on DraftKings and FanDuel, and history has proven that the sharp play is to stack against Shields. However, knowing that scenario seems like a certainty on this slate provides a slight edge. Fading Red Sox hitters in GPPs makes sense in a game theory move, but they remain among the safest options in cash games.
Billy Hamilton has 27 stolen bases in 57 games against the Cardinals, and he’s swiped 24 of 27 bags against Yadier Molina in his career. Hamilton was thrown out and picked off last night with Molina unavailable, but Molina is expected to return tonight. The Reds are implied to score only 4.6 runs, but Zack Cozart is expected to return from the disabled list, and he’s one of three hitters directly behind Hamilton with six or seven DraftKings Pro Trends. A Reds stack is risky since they’ve had little success against Lance Lynn in two meetings this season. However, incorporating a few Reds hitters, mainly on FanDuel, is a route worth considering should Hamilton wreak havoc on the base paths. Hamilton and Joey Votto have averaged a combined +4.26 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 61.2 percent Consistency Rating against the Cardinals since 2016, but their 3.7 percent GPP ownership indicates they’ve been largely ignored.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
