The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
The nine-game main slate starts at 7:05 pm ET. DraftKings offers a five-game early slate and a four-game afternoon slate. FanDuel provides a two-game very early slate and a three-game afternoon slate.
Pitchers
Studs
Five pitchers cost at least $10,000 on DraftKings, and three pitchers cost more than $9,000 on FanDuel. Despite the outrageous salaries, only three starters are facing teams implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard), two of whom are available in the main slate and cost less than $10,000 on DraftKings:
Gio Gonzalez is the only pitcher in the non-main slates facing a team implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs. He also leads all pitchers in the all-day slate with -211 moneyline odds, a 17 percent recent hard hit rate allowed, and a 100 percent Consistency Rating over the past month. Other than two blips in the past 10 starts, he’s been a supreme cash-game entity:
Pitchers have averaged a +4.91 FanDuel Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool) against the Mets in August, a month in which the Mets have the second-highest strikeout rate and fourth-lowest wOBA. Michael Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes have suffered injuries in consecutive games, leaving the Mets with a projected outfield of Brandon Nimmo, Juan Lagares, and Matt Reynolds. The Mets haven’t scored more than two earned runs against a starting pitcher in nine straight games and no more than three earned runs in the last 12. In two games against the Mets earlier this season (when they were aided by former players Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson, et al.), Gonzalez held them to three earned runs in 13.1 innings over two starts while averaging an +11.13 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Among pitchers with at least 10 home starts, Gonzalez has the fourth-highest DraftKings Consistency Rating this season. He’s been solid away from Nationals Park too, but he’s averaged a full point more at home:
The distinction will come into play this afternoon since Gonzalez’s salary is a season-high $12,500 on DraftKings, which translates to a 21.07 salary-implied point total — or 0.01 points more than his average home production.
When taking into account Gonzalez’s opponent implied run total, moneyline odds, and DraftKings salary, Gonzalez is in the company of pitchers who have averaged 22.98 DraftKings points. Gonzalez profiles as the chalk play in cash games and likely guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) in the non-main slates.
Is Kyle Hendricks a prototypical stud? Not really, but if you strip away his name and focus on his 7.4 K Prediction and slate-best -200 moneyline odds and 3.6-run opponent implied total, Hendricks quickly becomes a noteworthy option in the main slate. At $8,000 on FanDuel, he’s the sixth-most expensive pitcher — a value play. On DraftKings, he costs $9,700 — his highest salary in 12 starts. Strikeouts have not been abundant of late, but he’s limited the opposition to no more than three runs in six starts since returning from the disabled list.
Right-handers against the Phillies since the beginning of May have averaged a +3.24 FanDuel Plus/Minus and a +1.85 DraftKings Plus/Minus — the highest marks on both sites over that span. Hendricks’ 7.4 K Prediction this evening is the second-highest on the slate. Pitchers with similar K Predictions, opponent implied run totals, and elite moneylines have cultivated a +3.68 DraftKings Plus/Minus, but Hendricks has averaged a close-to-neutral Plus/Minus and 15.81 DraftKings points in the six instances he’s matched the trend. His average production is 1.25 points below his salary-based expectation. Hendricks doesn’t provide elite upside, but his Vegas data cements his status as a cash-game certainty. His GPP status, however, remains shaky as his 7.939 SO/9 rate over the last year is the seventh-lowest mark in the main slate. Pro subscribers can access ownership data shortly after lineups lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard, and they can also view how other DFS players approached pitchers on the nine-game slate via our new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Value
Brad Peacock may have the second-highest salary on DraftKings at $10,900 — his second-highest mark of the season — but on FanDuel he costs a manageable $8,500. He leads all pitchers in the main slate with a 7.5 K Prediction against a projected Angels lineup with a subpar 0.224 SO/AB cumulative rate. Pitchers with elite SO/9 rates facing the Angels haven’t been slam dunk options on DraftKings, where Peacock’s salary may be a hindrance. However, those with comparable rates have averaged a +4.82 FanDuel Plus/Minus and a 61.1 percent Consistency Rating on DraftKing and FanDuel against the Angels this season. He costs $1,200 more than Hendricks on DraftKings, and like more than half the options on the slate Peacock has superior recent batted ball distance allowed compared to Hendricks. Paying the extra $500 for Peacock on FanDuel may be the preferred route in GPPs despite the Angels’ repellent strikeout rate.
Sean Newcomb and Mike Clevinger have similar recent Statcast data, although Newcomb has allowed a lower fly ball and hard hit rate. Newcomb has the superior K Prediction — 7.3 compared to 6.3 — while Clevinger boasts -152 moneyline odds compared to Newcomb’s -118. Clevinger costs $400 less than Newcomb on DraftKings, and he leads all pitchers with eight DraftKings Pro Trends. Clevinger has also been the unluckiest pitcher of late in the main slate, recording a 66 Recent Batted Ball Luck on DraftKings.
Newcomb and Clevinger are cheap options worthy of SP2 consideration. Home pitchers against the Rockies have averaged a +0.63 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and among that group lefties have been better, averaging a +1.89 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 58.8 percent Consistency Rating. Newcomb has tallied between 11.9 and 20.7 DraftKings points in his last six outings — including an eight-strikeout performance against the Rockies two starts prior. If it’s a decision between Newcomb and Clevinger for cash games, Newcomb has a slight advantage. Clevinger, on the other hand, is facing a Royals team with the third-lowest implied total on the slate, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 starts. However, he’s failed to provide value in three of his last four outings. Sandwiched in-between those duds was a nine-strikeout, seven-inning shutout against the Rays. Clevinger’s downside will restrict his appeal to GPPs.
Fastball
Cole Hamels: He costs a season-high $12,100 on DraftKings, which limits his overall appeal on a slate where Gonzalez is the premier option. Nonetheless, left-handed pitchers have averaged a +3.33 FanDuel Plus/Minus against the Athletics, who have the third-highest strikeout rate and fifth-lowest wOBA against lefties this season. If you’re looking to go contrarian on the short slates, Hamels offers some upside as he’s registered a monthly WHIP of 0.97.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model belongs the Indians, who presently lead all teams with a 5.3-run implied total in the main slate:
This group of six is $2,900 shy of being the most expensive stack, which doesn’t alleviate salary cap concerns. In three games against the Indians this season, right-hander Jason Hammel hasn’t allowed more than three runs while pitching at least 6.0 innings in each contest — including his most recent start on August 20th. In all three games, the Indians were implied to score at least 4.6 runs, but this time they are facing a pitcher who has allowed the second-highest ISO and wOBA on the main slate over the last 15 days. Three of the five highest-rated hitters in the Bales Model are Indians, and Edwin Encarnacion has been rather unlucky of late. He has the third-highest fly ball rate among projected hitters and a 51 Recent Batted Ball Luck on FantasyDraft. Four of the hitters in the stack have a recent fly ball rate of at least 40 percent, and Hammel has allowed a slate-high 46 percent fly ball rate and 226-foot batted ball distance in consecutive starts.
The Tigers possess the highest-rated DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 model, an oddity considering they are implied to score an unimpressive 4.4 runs and have a Team Value Rating of only 67:
Every hitter in the stack has a positive ISO and wOBA differential against left-handed pitchers over the last 12 months, and if you were to replace Miguel Cabrera with James McCann, the projected seventh hitter, you would deploy the stack with the highest average ISO at a $200 savings. Pivoting to a Tigers stack with immense upside on a slate where only three teams are presently implied to score at least 5.0 runs is one way to diversify your GPP entries. Cabrera will continue to play until a ruling is made on his seven-game suspension, and Nick Castellanos is dealing with a wrist sprain that forced him to miss Friday’s tilt. The Tigers have averaged a league-high +1.15 DraftKings Plus/Minus against left-handed starters this season.
Batters
Eugenio Suarez has reached base in 19 straight starts, ranking second in the league to Giancarlo Stanton over that span with a 0.516 wOBA. He’s averaged a +5.42 DraftKings Plus/Minus during the streak with a 2.9 percent average DraftKings GPP ownership. Since the streak began, his salary has risen only $300. The Reds are available in both all-day slates and the DraftKings afternoon slate, which could ensure higher ownership for Suarez. They are facing a pitcher in Gerrit Cole who has allowed seven homers in his last five outings and no fewer than three runs in four consecutive starts. Cole has allowed a higher wOBA, fly ball rate, and HR/9 rate on the road this season, and over the last two starts he’s allowed a 227-foot batted ball distance and 45 percent hard hit rate. Cole has also allowed 12 stolen bases this season, a third of which occurred against the Reds in May. Billy Hamilton accounted for three of those, and he should offer immense upside on the abridged slates.
Giancarlo Stanton‘s home run-to-fly ball rate in August is 51.6 percent — up from his year-long and league-leading 34.8 percent average. During the same span, Padres right-hander Dinelson Lamet has allowed a 45.7 percent fly ball rate, the 14th-highest mark among starting pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched. Despite his proclivity for allowing fly balls, Lamet has limited hitters to one home run in his last six outings. The Padres relievers have the highest home run-to-fly ball rate of any bullpen, and they’ve yielded a season-high 1.53 HR/9 rate. Even if Stanton is grounded by Lamet, he’ll likely get one at-bat against the weakest bullpen in the majors. Despite his massive monthly success, Stanton’s average GPP ownership has hit a monthly low as his consistency and upside have peaked:
Ryon Healy has the second-highest wOBA in the DraftKings early slate and the third-highest wOBA in the DraftKings afternoon slate. He’s typically mashed against left-handed pitchers, averaging a +1.10 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 40.4 percent Consistency Rating over the past two seasons. He’s extremely cheap on DraftKings at $3,500, and since he offers dual-position eligibility at first and third base his malleability can produce a plethora of unique lineups.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
