The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s 11-game main slate begins at 7:05 pm ET. The DraftKings three-game early slate commences at 4:05 pm ET, and the FanDuel three-game early slate starts at 2:20 pm ET. The Blue Jays-Cubs affair is not included in the DraftKings slate, and the Mariners-Rays contest is excluded from FanDuel.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers cost more than $9,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel in the main slate, but only two of them are facing teams implied to score less than 4.1 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard):
Chris Sale will face the Yankees for the fourth time this season and the second game in a row. In the previous three outings, he maintained K Predictions between 7.7 and 8.9 (per our Trends tool) — aligning with tonight’s 8.7 K Prediction. He surpassed each K Prediction in all three starts, accumulating 35 combined strikeouts in 22.2 innings while recording 52, 66, and 58 FanDuel points. He may not have the highest K Prediction this evening, but he leads all pitchers in opponent implied run total (3.1), moneyline odds (-240), Pro Trends, average actual points, and yearly Consistency Rating. He’s been elite all season, and he’s produced double-digit strikeouts in eight of his last 11 attempts.
Even though Sale has allowed a 48 percent fly ball rate in his last two starts, he’s limited hitters to an 18 percent hard hit rate while dialing up his velocity by two miles per hour. When his average fastball velocity has reached top-end speed over the last four seasons, Sale has averaged a +6.79 DraftKings Plus/Minus in the subsequent 14 starts. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data, K Predictions, and a recent velocity change of at least one mile per hour have averaged a +8.59 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Sale has been the trend’s regular member:
He costs $14,100 on DraftKings for the third time in our database. Sale has averaged 22.36 DraftKings points at that salary range, and in two such outings this season — including his most recent start against the Yankees — he registered 35.5 and 34.15 DraftKings points. His DraftKings salary will be an impediment to stacking hitters from teams with high implied run totals, and since there are only five with a mark of at least 5.0, punting will likely be a popular and necessary tactic in order to roster Sale.
Sale has been available on a slate with Coors Field seven times since the beginning of May. His average DraftKings guaranteed prize pool (GPP) ownership has ranged between 17.3 percent and 65.0 percent in those situations. In the two last instances, both Sale and Max Scherzer shared the slate with Coors, and Scherzer had slightly higher ownership, but neither topped 28 percent. Since Sale is the clear-cut elite option on the slate, his GPP ownership could venture toward his yearly home average of 46.4 percent. His inflated salary should have little impact on his viability in cash games, and his FanDuel salary isn’t egregious enough to warrant a fade in any format. Pro subscribers can access ownership data shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Stephen Strasburg will make his first start since exiting July 23rd’s outing with a nerve issue in his right forearm. It’s unknown if he’ll have any limitations, but he may be required to eat plenty of innings after manager Dusty Baker used five relievers last night. Strasburg costs $3,100 less than Sale on DraftKings, which may be an acceptable trade-off depending on your risk mitigation views.
Strasburg’s Vegas data is elite, and he leads all pitchers with a 9.4 K Prediction — a mark he hasn’t approached in over a year. Pitchers with similar Vegas data and K Predictions have averaged a +2.84 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and Strasburg ranks third with 18 matches:
Almost 72 percent of the overall matches cost more than Strasburg costs tonight on DraftKings, and those with a similar salary have averaged a +4.80 DraftKings Plus/Minus with slightly lower Consistency compared to that of Strasburg. He’s in a great spot, and he’s performed spectacularly in similar situations. His upside is outstanding, but he’s failed to meet salary-based expectations in five of his last eight starts and pitch more than 3.0 innings in two of his last three starts. The salary decrease should alleviate point-per-dollar concerns, and he’s dealing with a stellar 80 Park Factor and an umpire with whom pitchers have averaged a +1.40 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
In his only start against the Padres this season, Strasburg struck out 15 hitters and held them without a run in 7.0 innings. Sale may provide the safer floor, but Strasburg has already proven he can exceed 70.0 FanDuel points. Strasburg costs $1,100 less than Sale on FanDuel, and he’ll be the true pivot on the main slate.
Pro subscribers can also see how other DFS players approached the Sale-Strasburg conundrum on the slate via our new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Value
Jerad Eickhoff hasn’t allowed more than three runs in nine of his last 10 starts, lasting at least 6.0 innings in six of those. He may be slightly overpriced on DraftKings at $7,900, and despite suffering a velocity decrease of 1.3 MPH during his last two starts, he managed to post a batted ball distance differential of -6 feet. He’s one of only five pitchers on the slate with a negative distance differential, and just once over the last 10 starts has he failed to record double-digit DraftKings points. He’s not favored, nor is he facing a projected Giants lineup known to strike out often, but what he lacks in upside he partially negates with his Consistency and 92 Park Factor.
Collin McHugh opposes an Athletics squad presently implied to score 4.1 runs — the fourth-lowest mark in the main slate — and a projected lineup with the third-highest SO/AB at 0.284. McHugh possesses the fourth-highest K Prediction and moneyline odds, and he’s pitched into the sixth inning in four straight outings, which improves his floor. If you’re going to roster McHugh, it should be at Minute Maid Park:
McHugh has the fifth-highest batted ball distance and fly ball rate allowed over the last 15 days, but his last two outings occurred on the road, where he’s allowed a higher wOBA and notched a lower strikeout rate since the beginning of 2016. Pitchers with similar K Predictions, moneyline odds, opponent implied run totals, and salaries have averaged 15.68 DraftKings points, or 0.64 points more than McHugh’s salary-implied point total.
Fastballs
Zack Greinke: He costs $700 more than Strasburg on DraftKings and $600 less than Strasburg on FanDuel. Fading both Sale and Strasburg could result in a significant ownership advantage in GPPs, and it comes with a slight budget increase on FanDuel. Greinke has been much more palatable at home this season, but he’s still exceeded 30.0 DraftKings points in two of his last six road starts.
CC Sabathia: The Red Sox are presently implied to score 4.9 runs, and Sabathia has allowed four runs in three consecutive outings while recording 12.0 cumulative DraftKings points before hitting the disabled list. Conversely, he’s held the Red Sox scoreless in 14.0 innings through two starts this year, averaging 2.0 percent DraftKings GPP ownership.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model belongs the Rangers, a team implied to score a slate-best 6.6 runs:
The Rangers produced the top-five rated stacks in the model, and many of them were separated by less than a few points. The top-rated group is the most expensive, and it includes Nomar Mazara, who collided with the outfield wall last night and injured his left knee. He and Carlos Gomez, who’s dealing with a back issue, could both be sidelined, leaving Shin-Soo Choo as the only other option against a left-handed starter. The Rangers are facing Derek Holland, who has allowed the highest or second-highest batted ball distance, exit velocity, fly ball rate, and hard hit rate over the last 15 days. Holland has also allowed at least five runs in eight of his last 13 starts. Alternatively, he allowed no more than three runs in the other five starts. Right-handed hitters have averaged a +3.21 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus with a 55.1 percent Consistency Rating against Holland this season, and 24 of the 27 homers he’s allowed have come against righties. Following Friday’s dud, Rangers hitters may be faded in order to pay up for Sale despite their high upside.
The top-rated DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Braves, who are one of five teams implied to score at least 5.0 runs in the main slate and rank in the top-three in Team Value Rating:
The Reds will start reliever-turned-starter Robert Stephenson, who has allowed a wOBA nearly 90 points higher on the road this season; he’s been a benefactor to both left and right-handed hitters. Lefties have the higher wOBA, home run rate, and strikeout rate against Stephenson this year, and they’ve registered a 47.8 percent hard hit rate against him. Hence, this highly-rated Braves stack includes three left-handed hitters. Matt Kemp is expected to be activated from the disabled list, and if he’s unavailable, you’ll be able to save some money against the salary cap since he is the second-most expensive Brave. It may also open up an opportunity to roster left-handed hitter Matt Adams, should he start. Freddie Freeman leads all first basemen on the slate with a 249-foot batted ball distance, and he’s relatively cheap considering he was priced above $4,700 in 11 of his last 15 games.
Batters
Hitters on their bobblehead day have averaged a +1.75 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 48 percent Consistency Rating and a +1.39 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 49.2 percent Consistency Rating. Nolan Arenado has outshined them all, thanks in part to Coors Field. In four such games, he’s recorded 18.0, 21.0, 21.0, and 57.4 FanDuel points. Whether the bobblehead factors in or is merely a coincidence, Arenado has proven to be a solid commodity when priced around his current FanDuel salary ($4,500), averaging a +4.19 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 51.1 percent Consistency Rating. The Brewers-Rockies Vegas over/under has not yet been set, which explains their absence from the top-rated stacks. Their hitters are quite expensive, and they may lose the ownership battle to Sale.
Jose Abreu and Nicky Delmonico lead all hitters in wOBA on the main slate, and Delmonico had the highest average DraftKings GPP ownership among hitters on Friday. He’s hit at least two homers in two of his last three starts, and now that the White Sox’s implied total has declined 0.5 runs since the line opened, targeting their hitters may be an afterthought. Rangers left-hander Martin Perez has allowed nine homers in his last seven starts, and Abreu has averaged 10.15 FanDuel points against lefties this season. One more White Sox hitter worth considering should he play is Avisail Garcia, who has missed the last two games with a sore left wrist. He leads the team with a +2.39 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 51.1 percent Consistency Rating against lefties this season.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
