The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday offers a split slate: There’s a three-game early slate starting at 4:05 pm ET and an 11-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate features a solid group of stud pitchers, with four starters owning salaries of at least $10,300 on DraftKings:
Carlos Martinez and Aaron Nola are both pitching on the main slate, while Luis Severino and Chris Archer occupy the early slate.
Martinez looks like the top stud on the main slate. He’s second with an opponent implied team total of 3.6 runs, and his moneyline odds of -224 rank second as well. Vegas data that strong has historically been predictive of fantasy success on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
He also boasts some of the top recent Statcast data among today’s pitchers, with an average batted ball distance of 199 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 28 percent over his last two starts. His matchup against the Braves is also good; their projected lineup has a wOBA split of just .299 over the past 12 months.
The big concern with Martinez is his strikeout potential in today’s start. Despite the poor wOBA, the Braves have been adept at making contact against right-handed pitchers, and Martinez’s K Prediction of 6.1 ranks just 11th on the slate. It’s tough to roster a pitcher at $11,200 with such little strikeout upside, and pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have a historical Plus/Minus of just +0.40 and Upside Rating of just three percent on DraftKings. Martinez looks like a strong play for cash games, but there might be better options available for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
On the early slate, distinguishing Severino from Archer could be a difficult task. Both pitchers enter today’s contest with remarkably similar Vegas data and recent Statcast data:
- Severino: 3.8 opponent implied team total, -155 moneyline odds, +22 foot 15-day/12-month distance differential, -81 Recent Batted Ball Luck Score
- Archer: 3.7 opponent implied team total, -135 moneyline odds, +24 foot 15-day/12-month distance differential, -88 Recent Batted Ball Luck Score
There are two factors that could push the needle slightly in Archer’s favor. First, his K Prediction of 7.5 bests Severino’s mark by 1.2 strikeouts and ranks first overall on the small three-game slate. Secondly, the current forecast calls for a 30 percent chance of precipitation in the Bronx, which could impact how long Severino could pitch in the ballgame. Of course, that could also result in reduced ownership for Severino, which might increase his appeal in GPPs.
Values
Hyun-Jin Ryu may not be priced as a stud, but you wouldn’t know that from looking at his Vegas data. He leads the slate in opponent implied team total (3.1 runs) and moneyline odds (-235), and pitchers with comparable opponent implied team totals, odds, and salaries have historically been excellent values on DraftKings:
Ryu has the top matchup available against the San Diego Padres, who have the worst wOBA and fifth-worst strikeout rate this season against left-handed pitchers. Ryu is coming off of two straight excellent starts, scoring an average of 30.65 fantasy points per game, and his average batted ball distance of 198 feet over that time period is excellent.
There are two big concerns, however, with Ryu. The first is his potential ownership. Given the lack of a true stud in the slate, many players will opt to pay slightly down for Ryu given the safety of his Vegas data. The second issue is his potential pitch count. He’s averaged only 90 pitches over his last two starts despite pitching remarkably well, and he’s thrown over 100 pitches in only three of 17 starts this year. That’s resulted in only six starts of at least six innings this season, which can limit his ability to rack up strikeouts and potentially earn a win. All of this might not matter against the offensively challenged Padres, but Ryu’s ceiling is likely more limited than it appears.
One Ryu pivot with more potential upside is Jon Lester, who leads the slate with a K Prediction of 8.8. A K Prediction that large is significant and has historically led to excellent results on FanDuel:
Despite the impressive K Prediction, Lester grades out as more of an upside tournament play thanks to a tough matchup against the Diamondbacks in Arizona. His opponent implied team total of 4.6 runs is much higher than those of the other top pitchers on the slate, and his -124 moneyline odds make him only a slight favorite. Additionally, his 15-day/12-month distance differential of +39 feet is putrid, and pitchers with comparable differentials have historically struggled.
Still, we’re looking for upside for GPPs, and Lester’s K Prediction suggests that he has arguably as much as anyone on today’s slate. His ownership level should also be very reasonable, which Pro subscribers can review using our DFS Ownership Dashboard. After lineup lock you can see how other DFS players approached pitchers via our new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Fastballs
Aaron Nola: He’s been an absolute beast over his last 10 starts, averaging a FanDuel Plus/Minus of +15.13 over that time frame. His opponent implied team total of 4.0 runs, moneyline odds of -135, and K Prediction of 6.6 are just middling marks on today’s slate, but given how well he’s pitched it’s reasonable to roster him at what should be reduced ownership.
Patrick Corbin: His K Prediction of 8.0 ranks third on the main slate, and he’ll likely be an afterthought as an underdog against Lester and the Cubs.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack courtesy of the Bales Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Twins lead the short three-game slate with an implied team total of 4.9 runs. They’re taking on Tigers right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, who has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the past 12 months. He’s allowed an average of 1.92 home runs per nine innings and a WHIP of 1.54, and facing a right-hander also puts the majority of the stacked batters on the positive side of their batting splits:
Additionally, all five batters have posted positive 15-day/12-month distance differentials, and all but Brian Dozier have posted positive hard hit differentials as well. If they can get past Zimmermann early, the Twins will also have an opportunity to face an extremely overworked Tigers bullpen; their Opponent Bullpen Rating of 95 is the second-highest mark among today’s teams.
We’ve recently added FantasyDraft tools to our suite of DFS products, and they allow you to stack up to six batters from the same team. The top six-man stack on today’s main slate belongs to the Washington Nationals:
The Nationals lead all teams today with a massive implied team total of 6.2 runs, and they’re facing a pitcher making just his fourth start this season in Chris Stratton. The Nats have been potent all season, especially against right-handed pitchers: They’re second only to the Houston Astros with their .342 wOBA split. These batters are affordable on FantasyDraft, with each owing a Bargain Rating between 81 and 94 percent. The weather in Washington is slightly concerning — there’s currently a 23 percent chance of precipitation — although that shouldn’t affect the batters as long as the game plays.
Batters
Nelson Cruz is tied for the slate lead with 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and that’s historically correlated with a Plus/Minus of +1.94. He has elite Statcast data over his last 13 games — 259-foot average batted ball distance, 95 mph exit velocity, 47 percent hard hit rate — and his .386 wOBA split and .284 ISO split over the past 12 months are elite marks as well. Basically, he’s a good hitter in good form.
Adam Rosales has been a poor fantasy producer of late . . .
. . . but his recent Statcast data suggests he’s hitting the ball well. He’s posted distance and hard hit differentials of +14 feet and +17 percentage points over the last 15 days, and his Recent Batted Ball Luck of +79 is one of the top marks on the slate. Projected to bat second at only $2,400 on DraftKings, he could be a solid punt play for those looking to spend up at pitcher.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
