The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday provides a four-game early slate at 1:05 pm ET and a 10-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET. The Astros-Tigers game, which is scheduled to begin at 6:10 pm ET, is excluded from both slates.
Pitchers
Studs
There are four players priced above $12,000 on DraftKings and $10,00 on FanDuel; the rest cost less than $9,000:
Since returning from the disabled list, Corey Kluber has exceeded salary-based expectations in each game on DraftKings and all but once on FanDuel (image below). Over that span, he’s led all starters with a 13.7 K/9 rate, 41.2 percent strikeout rate, 36.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 0.197 wOBA allowed, and 0.75 WHIP:
Kluber is facing a White Sox team presently implied to score a slate-low 2.9 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard), and he leads all pitchers with a 9.9 K Prediction and astronomical -285 moneyline odds. The collection of 27 historical pitchers with similar marks has averaged a +13.40 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 85.2 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). In Kluber’s lone match, he posted 55.0 FanDuel points. The Indians have received 82 percent of moneyline bets, and when they’ve received at least 80 percent of bets, Kluber has averaged 51.0 FanDuel points.
His $11,900 salary on FanDuel is within his upper range, but $14,000 on DraftKings is his highest salary in our database and seventh time this season a pitcher has been priced that high. Clayton Kershaw accounts for 35 of the 51 all-time instances of a pitcher costing at least $14,000, and the rest have failed to provide positive value on high guaranteed prize pool (GPP) ownership:
Right-handed starters have averaged a league-high 19.3 percent DraftKings GPP ownership when facing the White Sox this season, but after a torrid April (+6.87 DraftKings Plus/Minus), righties have struggled to maintain a similar output (-1.41 DraftKings Plus/Minus). Expect Kluber to be the highest-owned pitcher in the main slate despite the high cost. His salary on FanDuel isn’t as cumbersome and works for all formats, likely making him the chalk pitcher. Pro Subscribers can access ownership percentages shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Zack Greinke is facing a projected Cardinals lineup with the fourth-highest wOBA and third-highest SO/AB rate over the past 12 months. The Cardinals are one of three teams implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs in the main slate, and Greinke offers the third-highest K Prediction and recent ground ball rate allowed (55 percent). Diamondback starters have averaged a season-high +3.47 DraftKings Plus/Minus this season as well as a 62.4 percent Consistency Rating. In Greinke’s case, he’s been much more successful at home (+8.54 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a 75 percent Consistency Rating) compared to on the road (-1.29 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 50 percent Consistency Rating).
Greinke should be considered as a primary pivot from Kluber, whose peripheral data and recent form is elite, but Greinke’s recent Statcast data edges out Kluber’s. Greinke doesn’t offer a similar upside to that of Kluber, but with a salary difference of $1,800 on DraftKings and $1,700 on FanDuel, he offers more cap flexibility with what projects to be lower GPP ownership.
Jacob deGrom and Rich Hill are the expensive options in the early slate, and they are the only pitchers facing teams implied to score less than 4.5 runs.
deGrom has historically been exceptional during day games, regardless of the venue:
He’s pitched into the seventh inning in eight straight outings, averaging a stout 0.84 WHIP over that time while stranding 92.2 percent of base runners. Nonetheless, he’s facing a Mariners team implied to score 4.3 runs, whereas Hill is facing a Giants team implied to score 3.2 runs. Hill’s 5.2 K Prediction is the fourth-lowest mark in the early slate, but he hasn’t struck out less than seven batters in six straight starts. When he faced the Giants in May, he provided six strikeouts while limiting them to one run. Hill has since pitched into the seventh inning in four of his last five starts, providing a floor comparable to deGrom’s.
deGrom’s $13,200 FanDuel salary marks the first time in our database someone other than Kershaw has cost as much. Saving $2,200 by selecting Hill, who is aided by slate-best -265 moneyline odds, will likely be the conventional path. That said, expensive pitchers with comparable opponent implied totals and K Predictions have averaged a modest +0.54 FanDuel Plus/Minus. The decision may be tougher on DraftKings since they are separated by $500; Hill costs a career-high $12,400 there. Hill’s recent batted ball distance allowed is 28 feet short of deGrom’s mark, and he’s facing a projected lineup with the fourth-lowest mark in the all day slate.
Value
Ivan Nova opposes a Padres team that has scored at least four runs in all but two games since the All-Star break. He’s also one of only three pitchers in the main slate facing a team implied to score no more than 3.8 runs, and right-handed pitchers facing the Padres have averaged a solid +1.06 DraftKings Plus/Minus since the beginning of May — the second-highest average. Prior to his last start in Coors Field, Nova had pitched at least 6.0 innings in all but one start and allowed no more than four runs in each this season. He’s not a traditional strikeout pitcher, but he’s facing a projected lineup with the highest SO/AB on the main slate, and his ability to pitch deep into games boosts his cash-game argument. He’s limited hitters to an 18 percent fly ball rate in his last two starts, and he’s achieved a K Prediction of at least 7.0 for the second time, per the MLB Trends tool. Nova hasn’t historically offered immense upside, but he’s been stellar with a Park Factor of at least 77 since last season:
Even though he has struck out more than eight hitters just one time this season, Dinelson Lamet‘s K Prediction is greater than 8.0 for the sixth time. In fact, it’s the second-highest mark on the slate at 9.8. Opposing the Pirates and Nova shouldn’t be a deterrent to rostering both pitchers if loading up on hitters is your preference, but Lamet offers very little stability in cash games; he’s the antithesis of Nova. Lamet is one of three pitchers facing a team implied to score 4.2 runs, and he’s been prone to blowups. Over his last two games, he’s allowed a 50 percent hard hit rate and 231-foot batted ball distance. He’s been a safer option at home, averaging 19.49 DraftKings points in four starts, and he’s been priced up to a season-high of $7,900 on DraftKings. What he offers in upside is potentially negated by the Pirates’ second-lowest strikeout rate against right-handers this season. Nonetheless, pitchers with a K Prediction of at least 8.0 against the Pirates since last season have averaged a +4.06 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Fastballs
Adalberto Mejia: The Athletics have the second-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season, and Mejia has the fourth-highest K Prediction on the main slate. He’s recorded between 13.55 and 19.05 DraftKings points in his last six starts. and his DraftKings salary-implied point total is 12.29.
Yusmeiro Petit: He’ll be capped around 40-50 pitches, but he costs just $4,300 on DraftKings. Is the limit negated by his hitter-level salary? Five of the eight teams in the early slate are presently implied to score at least 4.7 runs, and the pitching options aside from deGrom and Hill are equally unstable. Punting at SP2 in favor of high-upside bats is what Petit allows.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model for the main slate belongs to the Rangers, who claim a slate-high 82 Weather Rating in a game projected for 90-degree temperature at first pitch:
The Rangers are presently implied to score 5.5 runs, and the six-man stack has averaged a +1.62 FantasyDraft Plus/Minus when implied for a similar total this season. Mike Napoli carries the lowest Consistency Rating of the group under those circumstances, but he’s been exceptional lately, averaging a 260-foot batted ball distance, 95 mile per hour exit velocity, 56 percent fly ball rate, and 50 percent hard hit rate since the All-Star break. Those marks rank in the top-10 among projected hitters in the main slate, and his recent fly ball rate is almost matched by Carlos Gomez‘s. Kevin Gausman‘s recent form is slightly concerning for Texas, as is the fact that he recorded eight strikeouts while limiting the Rangers to one run in 6.0 innings two starts ago. Since Gausman has averaged 5.50 FantasyDraft points per game on the road this season, fading the Rangers will be more of a contrarian tactic.
The Rangers claim the top-rated DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model, but the team from the other side of the matchup, the Orioles, have the next highest-rated quintet and lead all teams with an 88 DraftKings Team Value Rating and season-high 6.0 implied total:
When the Orioles have been implied to score at least 5.4 runs this season, the five hitters in the stack have averaged a cumulative +1.71 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 46.8 percent Consistency Rating, led by Jonathan Schoop, who has averaged a +6.80 DraftKings Plus/Minus over the past nine games. All five hitters have a positive recent batted ball distance differential, and only Mark Trumbo possesses a negative recent hard hit rate differential. They are facing a pitcher in Austin Bibens-Dirkx who has the highest HR/9 rate (2.297) allowed and third-lowest SO/9 rate in the all day slate. He’s also allowed a 57 percent hard hit rate and 98 mile per hour exit velocity in his last two relief appearances. Getting in an Orioles stack with a $14,000 Kluber is nearly impossible, which may actually reduce their collective ownership in GPPs.
Batters
Tim Adleman has allowed at least one home run in 11 straight games. He’s also allowed a slate-high 238-foot batted ball distance and 51 percent fly ball rate in his last three starts. The Marlins’ left-handed hitters are quite intriguing since Adleman has been rocked by lefties this season. Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, and Derek Dietrich will attempt to maintain the +4.40 FanDuel Plus/Minus lefties have averaged against Adleman this year.
In two games against Kyle Hendricks this season, the Brewers have scored four runs and hit two homers both times. They are currently implied to score 4.3 runs, the seventh-lowest mark in the main slate, and many of their hitters at the top of the order have FanDuel Bargain Ratings of at least 70 percent while averaging positive batted ball distance differentials. Lewis Brinson nearly breaks the models with a distance differential of plus-101 feet, and he’s only $2,500. Travis Shaw has averaged a 254-foot batted ball distance and 44 percent hard hit rate since the All-Star break, and he’s tied with Eric Sogard for a team-high six FanDuel Pro Trends. A full stack may be overkill, but the Brewers have provided the fourth-highest FanDuel Upside mark at home against right-handers this season, which at the very least warrants consideration for a few select bats.
Mike Trout has not scored fewer than 3.0 FanDuel points in his last 25 starts against a left-handed starter, averaging 17.72 FanDuel points with a 60.0 percent Consistency Rating. He leads all hitters in the early slate with a 0.460 wOBA, and the Angels are facing a pitcher in Francisco Liriano who has allowed a 51 percent fly ball rate and +19-foot batted ball distance differential in his last two outings. An Angels stack may be unorthodox, but since every other hitter in the lineup costs no more than $3,200, Trout’s slate-high $4,800 salary shouldn’t be too troublesome.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
