The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday provides a two-game early slate at 4:05 pm ET and a 13-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers cost more than $10,000 on DraftKings and $9,000 on FanDuel, and Jon Lester is not available in the main slate:
We’re dealing with low-tier studs who are abnormally expensive. David Price costs a season-high $12,300, clearing his next-highest salary by $2,200 (per our Trends tool). Lester has been priced up to a season-high, exceeding his previous apex by $600, and Rich Hill, who leads all pitchers on the slate with a 69.2 percent DraftKings Consistency Rating this season, is priced above $11,500 for the fourth time ever. Since the mid-tier options don’t offer much reassurance, spending up will become a necessary evil in cash games.
Hill is the second-most expensive pitcher on DraftKings at $11,700, but he’s much cheaper on FanDuel ($9,200). He’s facing a Braves team implied to score a slate-low 3.1 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard), a situation that didn’t treat teammate and fellow lefty Alex Wood well on Friday. Much like Wood, Hill’s moneyline odds are greater than -230, and he’s sporting excellent recent Statcast data: He’s posted a recent batted ball distance differential of -24 feet while recording a 54 percent ground ball rate in his last start. Prior to Wood’s debacle last night, five of the previous six left-hander starters all provided value against a team that ranks middle-of-the-pack against lefties this season in the pertinent hitting categories.
Pitchers with similar salaries, mediocre K Predictions, and solid opponent implied run totals have been both consistent and highly-owned when pitching at home:
Hill hasn’t struck out fewer than seven hitters in his last five starts, and he gets the services of the most pitcher-friendly umpire on the slate in Ron Kulpa. Pitchers have averaged a +2.39 FanDuel Plus/Minus with Kulpa behind the plate — the second-highest mark in our database since the 2012 season. Pitchers have been even more successful this season, averaging a +4.75 FanDuel Plus/Minus when Kulpa has called the game.
Hill’s appeal has more to do with the lack of viable alternatives than with his own recent form, which has been admittedly spectacular. He’s projected to be one of the highest-owned pitchers in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) in the main slate, and he’ll likely be among the top options in cash games. Pro Subscribers can access ownership percentages shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Chris Archer has pitched at least 6.0 innings in 11 straight starts, a stretch in which he’s failed to strike out at least seven hitters just twice. He’s the only pitcher on the slate facing a team implied to score less than 4.0 runs while claiming a K Prediction greater than 6.9. Archer is the most-expensive pitcher on FanDuel, which will likely reduce his GPP ownership, but he is the cheapest of the pitchers priced above $10,000 on DraftKings.
Archer ranks third with 36 games with a K Prediction of at least 7.0 since the beginning of last season, and when he’s had a similar K Prediction at home over that span, he’s been close to a must-own:
Archer has severe home/road splits throughout his career, and his FanDuel GPP ownership at Tropicana Field is double that of his GPP ownership on the road. On DraftKings, he’s averaged 35.7 percent GPP ownership and a 67.2 percent Consistency Rating at home. He may provide a solid foundation for cash games, and he offers immense upside in GPPs despite allowing at least two runs in 12 straight starts.
Lester leads all four pitchers in the early slate in K Prediction, moneyline odds, recent Statcast data, Pro Trends, and, of course, salary. The Cardinals are currently implied for just 3.8 runs, and the wind is projected to blow in — a good sign — while light rain is presently in the forecast. The most likely DraftKings pairing will be Lester and Matt Moore, who costs $7,200 on DraftKings and is facing the Padres; left-handed pitchers have averaged a +4.25 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 73.1 percent Consistency Rating against them this season.
Value
The drop-off after the high-priced studs is large, but with so many teams implied to score at least 5.0 runs in the main slate, spending down on a SP2 is a must in order to squeeze in preferred bats.
Danny Salazar will make his first major league start in almost six weeks since suffering a right shoulder injury. He threw 84 pitches in his last rehab start, and it’s unclear if he’ll have any limitations tonight. He costs a season-low $7,900 on FanDuel and $7,100 on DraftKings, and he leads all pitchers with an 8.5 K Prediction. Salazar is facing a Blue Jays team implied to score 4.1 runs, and when he faced them earlier this season, he pitched a season-low 2.2 innings. The 30 percent chance of precipitation at Progressive Field is another strike against Salazar in cash games, but cheap pitchers with similar K Predictions have been outstanding plays, averaging a +3.39 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Salazar’s salary decrease is a great selling point for his appeal as a SP2.
Julio Teheran is facing a team implied to score 4.9 runs, yet he’s limited hitters to a 177-foot batted ball distance while generating a 57 percent ground ball rate in his last two outings. Teheran offers the third-highest K Prediction in the main slate, and he’s been dynamite on the road since the start of last season:
His opponent implied total is troubling, but when exploring the rest of the cheap options on the slate, it quickly devolves into who you dislike the least. The Dodgers’ run total likely reduces his potential GPP ownership, but it also diminishes his safety in cash games. Teheran costs less than $8,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, and he also gets the benefit of Ron Kulpa, who, again, is extremely pitcher-friendly.
Fastballs
David Price: He’s provided at least 24.0 DraftKings points in three of his last four starts. However, his DraftKings salary is cumbersome, and he pairs it with a 5.2 K Prediction. Similarly-priced pitchers have averaged a +0.32 DraftKings Plus/Minus with such a low K Prediction, but Price leads them all with 22 such starts, averaging a +2.86 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 77.3 percent Consistency Rating.
Masahiro Tanaka: He’s one of four pitchers facing a team implied to score less than 4.0 runs, and he’s the cheapest of the bunch. Tanaka has struck out at least eight hitters in five of his last seven starts, besting his 12-month 8.758 SO/9 rate. Tanaka isn’t much cheaper than the expensive pitchers on FanDuel, but he costs at least $1,500 less than the top-three salaried pitchers on DraftKings.
German Marquez: He’s facing a team implied to score 5.8 runs, but he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in five consecutive starts at Coors Field, averaging 21.29 DraftKings points and allowing no more than three runs during that span. He’s recorded a 58 percent ground ball rate in his last two starts, both at Coors, and at $6,200 on DraftKings, he could provide plenty of salary relief as a contrarian SP2.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Tigers, a team implied to score only 5.0 runs — the 12th-highest mark in the main slate:
Every hitter costs less than $9,000, and four of the six all have a recent hard hit rate of at least 40 percent. Twins righty Kyle Gibson has the eighth-highest hard hit rate allowed among starters with at least 80.0 innings pitched this season. That said, he has limited hitters to a slate-best 12 percent fly ball rate in his last two outings. His shortest start of the season occurred against the Tigers back in April — the only time he failed to pitch at least 3.0 innings. Since there are plenty of teams implied for a higher total, a Tigers stack may provide more cover as a contrarian option. It’s not extremely expensive, and it’s bound to receive low ownership due to the plethora of higher-implied team totals.
The top-rated DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Tigers, and the team with the second-highest rated stack is the Astros:
The Astros are presently implied to score 5.8 runs, the third-highest mark in the main slate, and every hitter in this stack has a recent hard hit rate of at least 34 percent. Orioles starter Chris Tillman recently snapped a seven-game streak of yielding at least one home run, but he has the second-worst WHIP and fifth-lowest SO/9 rate on a slate where abominable pitching is the norm. Jose Altuve ranks second behind Freddie Freeman with a +4.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus on the road this season, and he’s reached base in 23 straight starts. The forecast doesn’t bode well for pitchers at Camden Yards tonight, but it’s unclear if the Astros-Orioles game will be postponed due to the 34 percent chance of precipitation. The chance for a shortened or postponed game reduces the Astros’ viability in cash games, and the $23,000 cumulative salary may be difficult to afford anyway.
Batters
The White Sox possess the same friendly-hitter conditions as the Royals, yet they are implied to score only 4.3 runs. The Royals are implied to score 5.9 runs — their second-highest mark in our database and second-highest since yesterday. The Royals and White Sox combined for 13 runs on Friday, and the Royals yet again lead all teams with the highest Team Value Rating on DraftKings and FanDuel. The White Sox deserve ample consideration since they’re facing a left-handed pitcher, against whom they rank seventh with a 0.340 wOBA this season. The Royals hitters may be popular in GPPs for the second straight night, as they accounted for the four highest-owned hitters on Friday. None of their hitters cost more than $4,200 on DraftKings or $3,600 on FanDuel. White Sox hitters are even cheaper, and they’re facing a pitcher in Jason Vargas who allowed a 260-foot batted ball distance and 54 percent hard hit rate in his last outing.
Giancarlo Stanton currently has 11 DraftKings Pro Trends, the third-highest mark in the main slate. Hitters at Great American Ball Park today have the help of an 87 Weather Rating, and the wind is projected to blow nine miles per hour toward left field. The Reds will counter with Robert Stephenson, who will make his first start this season following a 13-game stint as a reliever. In his most recent appearance, he allowed 10 hits in 2.0 innings, and among pitchers on the slate, he has the highest WHIP and HR/9 rate over the past 12 months. Stanton has a great matchup and weather, and he’s been almost unstoppable in his last 12 starts:
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
