The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday presents a two-game early slate at 4:05 pm ET and a 13-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Six pitchers cost more than $10,000 on DraftKings today, and five of them have K Predictions of at least 7.6 and are facing teams implied to score less than 4.0 runs. On FanDuel, nine pitchers cost at least $9,000. Chris Sale and Luis Severino are not available in the main slate:
Pitching is stacked this evening. Seven pitchers have 100 percent Consistency Ratings over the past month (minimum four starts), and four of them have averaged at least 50.5 FanDuel points over the same period. Five of the top-nine pitchers in SO/9 this season are in play. Many of the elite options are facing subpar offenses, which may actually flatten ownership in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) and reduce the need to spend salary at the very top.
Max Scherzer is the most-expensive pitcher in the main slate, where he leads all pitchers with a 9.7 K Prediction. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in nine straight starts; he pitched less than 7.0 innings and struck out less than 10 hitters only once during that span. On a normal slate, he’d likely be the chalk pitcher. However, we’re not dealing with a normal slate, and the Reds are presently implied to score 4.0 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard) — tied for the highest mark against Scherzer over the past two seasons. It’s only the seventh time in our database a pitcher with a similar DraftKings salary and K Prediction is facing a team implied to score at least 3.8 runs; when expanding the ranges to a salary of at least $11,000 and an opponent implied run total between 3.6 and 4.2 (the highest mark), pitchers have averaged a -1.39 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 26 instances, six of which belong to Scherzer (per our Trends tool).
Corey Kluber has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight straight starts on DraftKings since being activated from the disabled list. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs while striking out at least eight hitters in each outing during that stretch, which began against tonight’s opponent, the Athletics, with six shutout innings and 10 strikeouts. Kluber claims the second-highest salary, third-highest K Prediction, and lowest opponent implied run total. He’s the heaviest favorite today with -200 moneyline odds, and he’s facing a projected lineup with the third-highest SO/AB rate over the past 12 months. The Athletics also have the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions, team moneyline odds, and opponent implied run totals have historically offered stable production on high ownership:
Madison Bumgarner is set to return after suffering an off-the-field shoulder and ribs injury, and in his most recent rehab start, he tossed 86 pitches. There have been no reported limitations for his first outing in three months, and he’s returning to the easiest matchup for pitchers. Bumgarner costs $500 more on FanDuel compared to DraftKings, where he’s priced at a season-low of $10,500. Concern for altered mechanics or decreased velocity due to the injury to his pitching arm is less dramatic against the worst offense in the majors. The Padres have the lowest wOBA and third-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season, a grouping that has averaged a season-best +5.02 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 79.2 percent Consistency Rating against the Padres. Bumgarner leads all pitchers with an 88 Park Factor, has a stout 9.5 K Prediction, and is facing a team implied to score 3.4 runs.
Alex Wood is the cheapest of the most-expensive pitchers on FanDuel, and his recent track record compares favorably:
Wood’s salary on DraftKings is sandwiched between the three pitchers previously mentioned, and he’s not one of the five pitchers with a K Prediction of at least 8.0 in the main slate. He’s effectively a wild card, and even though he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in 11 straight starts on DraftKings, he recorded a season-low four strikeouts against the Marlins in mid-May. His 23.1 DraftKings points in that performance would be enough to provide value at today’s salary, and even though the Marlins have the eighth-lowest strikeout rate against lefties this season, they also have the lowest hard hit rate, which pairs solidly with Wood’s recent hard hit rate allowed of seven percent.
Deciding on a primary pitcher tonight may be as simple as selecting a pitcher that complements your offensive core. Scherzer’s salary almost guarantees you can have him at discounted ownership, Kluber appears to have one of the highest floors, and Bumgarner’s matchup could be marred by a pitch count or deviation from his form prior to the injury. Ownership could waver violently based on your preferred site; Pro Subscribers can access ownership percentages shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Chris Sale is justifiably the most-expensive pitcher at $13,000 on DraftKings, but he’s $500 less than Scherzer on FanDuel. Sale is not an option on the main slate, which will likely result in him being the highest-owned player in the early two-game slate. Luis Severino is the obvious pivot in GPPs, but he’s struggled over the past month, allowing a 47 percent recent hard hit rate. Of the four pitchers in the early slate, Sale is the only one facing a team implied to score less than 4.3 runs, and he leads the group with a 7.7 K Prediction.
Value
Jameson Taillon is the cheapest pitcher facing a team implied to score less than 4.0 runs, automatically qualifying him for a value play. His recent three-game stretch of posting at least 19.9 DraftKings points began against today’s opponent, the Cardinals. Taillon costs $8,300 on DraftKings, and his upside is slightly limited, as he hasn’t pitched more than 5.0 innings in five of his last seven outings. When he’s had a similar K Prediction, he’s averaged a +3.03 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 76.5 percent Consistency Rating in 17 instances. While his upside is questionable, he’s proven to be a solid cash-game option for an SP2.
Jake Arrieta costs less than $7,000 on DraftKings for the first time since May of 2014, and despite a turbulent stretch of fantasy production, he claims the fourth-lowest recent batted ball distance allowed and fifth-highest recent ground ball rate while limiting hitters to a 13 percent hard hit rate in his last two starts. He’ll likely track as an SP2 tonight due to the significant discount, but he’s facing the Orioles, who are presently implied to score 4.8 runs. Whereas Taillon offers a solid floor, Arrieta provides a similar-if-not-higher ceiling, and he costs $1,500 less than Taillon on DraftKings. Arrieta’s consistency doesn’t translate well in cash games, and his $9,300 FanDuel salary is a non-starter on that site.
Fastballs
Aaron Nola: He’s facing a projected Brewers lineup with the highest SO/AB rate. He’s pitched at least 7.0 innings and struck out at least eight hitters in four consecutive outings, yet he’ll likely be an afterthought on such a loaded pitching slate.
Luis Castillo: He costs $6,400 on DraftKings, and following three straight starts with at least eight strikeouts, Castillo currently has the fifth-highest K Prediction at 8.4. He’s provided value in consecutive starts at Coors Field and Chase Field, and he’s not projected for much ownership on a pitcher-heavy slate.
Jhoulys Chacin: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven consecutive outings while allowing no more than two runs in six straight. He also owns a sublime +9.45 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 100 percent Consistency Rating at Peto Park in nine starts since joining the Padres.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Cubs, who presently lead all teams with a 5.4 implied run total:
This stack includes three of the 16 most-expensive hitters on the slate, almost guaranteeing the entire five-man stack will have low ownership due to the plethora of expensive stud pitchers. The Cubs have the fourth-highest DraftKings Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating against left-handed pitchers this season, and Orioles lefty Wade Miley has allowed at least four runs in five of his last seven outings. Miley also has the third-highest WHIP (1.629) over the past 12 months, and he’s allowed the eighth-highest wOBA (0.373) and fourth-highest walk rate among qualified starters against right-handed hitters this season. Conversely, the Cubs have the highest walk rate and fifth-highest wOBA against lefties this year.
For the second straight day, a Mariners stack tops the Bales Model for FantasyDraft:
The Mariners failed to meet yesterday’s 5.5 implied run total, scoring four runs. This stack is quite expensive, which will likely negatively impact its overall ownership. Robinson Cano is the only hitter in the stack with a recent negative batted ball distance differential, but he accounted for three of the Mariners’ four runs on Friday. Even though Jarrod Dyson is at the end of the order, he leads all projected hitters on the slate with a batted ball distance differential of +65 feet. Kyle Seager has been considered unlucky compared to his recent batted ball distance, posting a +79 FantasyDraft Recent Batted Ball Luck mark. And finally, White Sox right-hander Mike Pelfrey has some of the worst recent Statcast data, including a recent batted ball distance allowed differential of +24 feet.
Batters
The goal of the day is to find cheap hitters with a solid mix of Consistency and Upside in order to opt for the pitcher of your choosing. Only four teams are presently implied to score at least 5.0, two of which were covered in the stacks section above.
Johan Camargo is projected to bat seventh for the Braves, but in his limited at-bats against left-handed pitchers, he leads all hitters on the slate with a .530 wOBA. He’s met salary-based expectations in half of the last 20 games he’s started, and he costs no more than $3,300 on DraftKings and FanDuel. Kurt Suzuki, who costs $3,000 on DraftKings, leads all catchers with nine Pro Trends and ranks second with a .265 ISO. His recent Statcast data is limited to a three-game sample, but he’s registered a 268-foot batted ball distance, a 69 percent fly ball rate, and a 46 percent hard hit rate. Both hitters lead the Braves in ISO and make for a unique and cheap 6-7 mini-stack.
Chase Utley and Whit Merrifield both have nine FanDuel Pro Trends, and neither costs more than $2,800. Because both are listed as second basemen, only one is rosterable. However, Utley has first baseman-eligibility on DraftKings, creating a situation where both are accessible. Their teams are presently implied to score between 4.7 and 4.9 runs, and both have averaged a 53 percent fly ball rate over the past 15 days. Utley has the superior marks in the rest of the recent Statcast data, including a +56-foot batted ball differential and 53 percent hard hit rate, and he’s actually $600 cheaper than Merrifield on DraftKings. In fact, he leads all hitters with 12 DraftKings Pro Trends.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
